PA Map (in my opinion)

[TeePee4Prez]

[TeePee4Prez]

Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No.

Would you put them as white?

[TeePee4Prez]

Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No.

Would you put them as white?

Delco - white. Lehigh - light blue maybe white. The Dems have had their day in Lehigh, Flyers. That day is long gone now.

Lehigh is the quintessential swing county.  That and Delaware are too diverse and too close to really pin it down as anything.  Philly map coming shortly.  I'm sure you'll love that one.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Yes, but the same can be said about Montgomery and Bucks counties.  Theya re flying left as a result.  danwxman has a point here.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Yes, but the same can be said about Montgomery and Bucks counties.  Theya re flying left as a result.  danwxman has a point here.

dan didn't post a point, Flyers. He asked if it was true and it is. Montco GOP still has atleast some presence. Lehigh Dems are pretty much gone. (By the way, your fantasy about Bucks has to end. The GOP still dominates on the local level there.)

Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped.  They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though.  From what I heard she is quite popular in her district.  Should have won the Senate seat though.

[TeePee4Prez]

Also, Allegheny County isn't that liberal.   It would be populust.  Indiana is populist; Westmoreland might actually be light blue.

Forgot about Indiana.  If you read my notes, I did indeed tone down the social liberalism on that county.  Westmoreland was a tossup for me.  I was thinking a purple shade for that one. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped.  They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though.  From what I heard she is quite popular in her district.  Should have won the Senate seat though.

They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right...

Rooney should have ran for Congress.  He would have proabably won easily instead of carpetbagging that fool Driscoll.

[TeePee4Prez]

Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped.  They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though.  From what I heard she is quite popular in her district.  Should have won the Senate seat though.

They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right...

Rooney should have ran for Congress.  He would have proabably won easily instead of carpetbagging that fool Driscoll.

He wouldn't win against Dent. Closer, of course, but no win. I'm guess about 52% Dent and 48% Rooney

Rooney might have.  I mean a yuppie carpetbagger from the Main Line got 40%.  That was not a good move for the Democrats however. 

[TeePee4Prez]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

[TeePee4Prez]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage

Democrats have been very foolish up in that area.  All they have is Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney.  Ed O'Brien was a bad choice for them AND THEY RUN HIM TWICE! 

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

[TeePee4Prez]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

The New York exurbanites are already coming in. Kerry barely won. Dent is more moderate yet only did two points better than Toomey did in 2002. The Lehigh Valley, as much as you'd love to see it be moderate-lean left, keeps moving to the right. You might be winning in our area, Flyers but you're losing in Lehigh.

Two points isn't that much considering how much more moderate Dent is and they carpetbagged someone for crying out loud. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere.    Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...)

The more I think about it, the more I think Pat Murphy doesn't have a chance.  NARAL or PPSEPA won't put up a dime either.  We probably need another Kostmayer type to run against Fitz.  Say, I've read about his politics and mine are quite simlar.  Think I could carpetbag?  I will be 26.  <joking>

[TeePee4Prez]

Most of the people I know that live in Bucks were once from Philly, majority of those being the Northeast.  Also, there is an influx of New Yorkers in the county as well.  Not sure if that statement holds water, bullmoose.