NH-ARG: Hillary+3

[Tender Branson]

46% Hillary
43% Sanders
  3% O'Malley
  7% Undecided

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http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

[The Other Castro]

Trump and Sanders supporters can come together in calling ARG junk.

[Tender Branson]

Excellent news for Bernie.

If ARG has Hillary ahead, it actually means Sanders is leading by 10-20% ...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Excellent news for Bernie.

If ARG has Hillary ahead, it actually means Sanders is leading by 10-20% ...

[Eraserhead]

RIP Hillary.

[A Perez]

Nate Silver gives ARG a C- grade, even worse than Rasmussen http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

It is likely that good pollsters will not replicate ARG's good news for Clinton.

In fact, ARG predicted a 9% Clinton victory in Iowa vs. Obama, but she lost by 8.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good polls for Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

In fact, ARG predicted a 9% Clinton victory in Iowa vs. Obama, but she lost by 8.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

They were on the wrong side of virtually every one of the early 2008 primaries.  And it's not like they were consistently overestimating one candidate over another.  It was more that they had McCain leading in states that Romney won and vice versa.  Or you had a case like the South Carolina Dems, where they correctly called Obama as the winner (as everyone else did), but underestimated his margin of victory by more than 20 points:

Here are some of ARG's final pre-election polls from this year:

IA: Clinton up by 9
NH: Obama up by 9
MI: McCain up by 1
SC: Obama up by 3
SC: Huckabee up by 7
FL: Romney up by 2
CA: Romney up by 2

But those are just the final pre-election polls.  If you look back at polls they've conducted from from weeks or months in advance of the primaries, they are far worse.  I mean, there's no real way to test that, but they are usually wildly off from all the other pollsters.  For example:

Iowa:

They had Clinton leading by double digits in early 2007, while every other pollster had Edwards leading.

South Carolina:

They had several polls in the spring/summer of 2007 in which Edwards was in 2nd place in SC (behind Clinton), while every other pollster had Edwards in 3rd.

In the spring/summer of 2007, they had McCain still leading in the state, when everyone else had him trailing by double digits.  Then from about August-October, everyone had Thompson leading, but ARG had Giuliani or Romney leading.

California:

In mid-January, when every other pollster had McCain leading in CA and Giuliani in the low teens, ARG had Giuliani leading by double digits with 33% of the vote.

Those are just a few of their greatest hits.  Do any other pollsters have so many laughably bad results?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Lol i thought ARG was dead ... Throw in the trash.

[The Other Castro]

Coincidentally, ARG is the sound I make when I see an ARG poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PPP also shows Clinton narrowly up. I think Clinton closes it out by winning NH. This is the only state Sanders have put in play & its still a tossup.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Eh, if Sanders somehow upsets IA he should be able to win NH.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Drat, I guess it's safe O'Malley now.

[Blair]

#2008redux

Yeah, New Hampshire adores the Clintons. Sanders isn't winning there.

It's a myth the Clintons love to hype-Bill actually lost there in 1992, and Hillary just about scrapped back after throwing everything at it in 2008

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by ARG on 2015-12-22

Summary:

Clinton:	46%
Sanders:	43%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Terry the Fat Shark]

As if.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, ARG continues to limit access to its website overseas.  I'm outside the US, and can't view the URL of the poll in question.

Don't they realize that free access to presidential primary polls is a human right?

[bedstuy]

Excellent news for Bernie.

If ARG has Hillary ahead, it actually means Sanders is leading by 10-20% ...

Beautiful, beautiful poll.  Stop criticizing highly respected ARG Tender.  You're a joke.

[Lief 🗽]

DOMINATING!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Maggie Hassen, who already endorsed Clinton entered the Senate race, who is friends with Schumer, it wad whole new ballgame with females.

[Eraserhead]

Once Maggie Hassen, who already endorsed Clinton entered the Senate race, who is friends with Schumer, it wad whole new ballgame with females.

lol.

[NeverAgain]

This thread... lol.

[Kingpoleon]

This thread... lol.

The comments are far, far more insane and unrealistic than this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This can be the result in NH, off of the Clinton bounce from Iowa, eventhough, this race is Leans towards Sanders now. But, Clinton can get a bump like this.