Minnesota polling says GOP has the state in their corner

[buddy36]

Minnesota in many polls shows GOP clearly ahead their ground game plan that has been ongoing for the past 30 years is coming to actual results.
The poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c35be9e1-00ac-46e1-ae46-2dd58f805665

[Kingpoleon]

Of course. MN will vote to the right of WI in 2016, and probably to the right of MI in 2020. It will eventually be more Republican than IN. It's a rather obvious example of a WV. Peterson will probably become it's Manchin.

[Maxwell]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

[Trapsy]

Buddy, You gotta chill with your GOP magically flip strong blue states dream. LOL

[Cruzcrew]

I'm skeptical of obama being 37-56 in MN when he's 46% nationally

[buddy36]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

show me other examples that they overshot republicans and usually polls underestimate what GOP will get

[buddy36]

Buddy, You gotta chill with your GOP magically flip strong blue states dream. LOL

How strong is the state for democrats if republicans are winning the state?

[buddy36]

MN will flip before NH, but it won't flip in 2016. It is the Republicans' Arizona.

any source of facts say other wise

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

Final SUSA MN GOV 2014 Poll: Dayton 47-42
Actual Results: Dayton 50-44

Pretty much right on in terms of margin.

[Maxwell]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

Final SUSA MN GOV 2014 Poll: Dayton 47-42
Actual Results: Dayton 50-44

Pretty much right on in terms of margin.

I mean yes, but way far out they showed the Senate race as way closer.

[bedstuy]

When was the last time the GOP hit 50% in a statewide election in Minnesota? 

More than 20 years ago.

[Bismarck]

MN will flip before NH, but it won't flip in 2016. It is the Republicans' Arizona.

Do you ever post without mentioning New Hampshire?

[Mehmentum]

Mistakes the OP made:

1.) Believing polls taken a year before an election have any predictive value.

2.) Believing a SUSA poll.  After their absolutely and consistently horrible results in Kentucky, I take all of their polling with a grain of salt.

Also, the OP is seriously late to the party on this one.  The poll came out almost 2 months ago.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

MN is whiter than most other Midwest states, therefore there is less racial tension for Trump to exploit. I don't doubt Hillary could lose there, but I think she'll pull if off by a point or two.

[pbrower2a]

High floor for Republicans, low ceiling for Democrats. Minnesota has been one of the least volatile of states in its politics.  One Republican win of the State in a Presidential election since 1956, and only when I see some credible poll will I change my mind. 

[buddy36]

High floor for Republicans, low ceiling for Democrats. Minnesota has been one of the least volatile of states in its politics.  One Republican win of the State in a Presidential election since 1956, and only when I see some credible poll will I change my mind. 

correction Nixion won the state in 72 and Reagan barely campaigned in the state and came in 3000 votes of the state. also, the poll is credible you just call any poll you don't agree with because of your political views false.

[buddy36]

Mistakes the OP made:

1.) Believing polls taken a year before an election have any predictive value.

2.) Believing a SUSA poll.  After their absolutely and consistently horrible results in Kentucky, I take all of their polling with a grain of salt.

Also, the OP is seriously late to the party on this one.  The poll came out almost 2 months ago.

They are the only thing to go on they might not mean anything in the election. But they are the only source to assume what the results will be

[Minnesota Mike]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

[Lord of the Dome]

Mistakes the OP made:

1.) Believing polls taken a year before an election have any predictive value.

2.) Believing a SUSA poll.  After their absolutely and consistently horrible results in Kentucky, I take all of their polling with a grain of salt.

Also, the OP is seriously late to the party on this one.  The poll came out almost 2 months ago.

They are the only thing to go on they might not mean anything in the election. But they are the only source to assume what the results will be

Now that is some tip-top logic my friend. The response to not having any credible source of information with which you can predict election results which are almost a year away isn't to just shrug and use it anyway cause it's all you've got. Polls this far out from an election are totally meaningless, just ask [insert candidate who was leading decisively at some point prior to the commencement of the campaign].

[Fritz]

Sorry guys, Minnesota ain't flippin' this year.

[Bojack Horseman]

Mitt Romney's internal polls had him leading Obama by 5 two days before the election day in Minnesota. Obama carried Minnesota by 8 points. Just like the polling that had Michelle Nunn winning a Senate seat in Georgia who then got creamed by three touchdowns, you can't change the fact that a state is so solidly for one side or the other.

[Kingpoleon]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

Final SUSA MN GOV 2014 Poll: Dayton 47-42
Actual Results: Dayton 50-44

Pretty much right on in terms of margin.

I mean yes, but way far out they showed the Senate race as way closer.

SUSA does well in MN and, say, AZ, but it can't do that well in non-Lean states, be they toss-up or safe. I think Kasich or Christie could flip MN, as its swing regions are similar to Pennsylvania's.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is hilarious. The GOP hasn't had Minnesota 'in their corner' for decades, statewide or nationally.

[Suburbia]

Minnesota can go Republican in 2016 under the right circumstances. Pawlenty won it in '02 and '06, but by a razor-thin margin. If the GOP ticket is successful, it is possible that they could win it in an upset, but it is likely to go Democratic.

[Ebsy]

Minnesota doesn't really matter. If Republicans win it, they will have already won the election. Of course, they aren't going to win it, but they weren't going to win the election anyway, so who cares?