Minnesota polling says GOP has the state in their corner

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Keep dreaming right-wingers and use tons of resources ( like last election with Pennsylvania) and waste it.

[SATW]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

thats why i have him on ignore.

[Higgs]

Keep dreaming right-wingers and use tons of resources ( like last election with Pennsylvania) and waste it.

Lol how did we use "tons of resources" on Pennsylvania?

[Tender Branson]

Nope.

The good people of MN will never vote for a tool like Trump or an extremist like Cruz - even against an unlikeable trainwreck like Hillary with 40% favorable rating.

Rubio might come close, but even he won't win it.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Well, it's never that far apart, but let's take it one step at a time.  I believe the last time it was close was in 2000 with Nader getting a significant portion of the vote.  It's always close to center though.  Obama had it at -3 and -4.

[Kingpoleon]

lol surveyusa always deeply over-estimates the GOP in Minnesota.

And as usual, Kingpoleon strings together random words and non-analysis analysis.

thats why i have him on ignore.

O.... K....

[madelka]

Wow, the 2016 board has become a train wreck. Minnesota isn't voting Republican in 2016 barring a GOP landslide and no... Democrats are not assured of winning the presidential election, you hacks.

[Bacon King]

The Minnesota Republican Party is notoriously and hilariously incompetent. They absolutely do not have a "ground game plan", let alone one that has apparently been in play for thirty years

[ProudModerate2]

Polls this far out from an election are totally meaningless ...

[Brewer]

The Minnesota Republican Party is notoriously and hilariously incompetent. They absolutely do not have a "ground game plan", let alone one that has apparently been in play for thirty years

^^

MN Republicans are a laughingstock. Please go away.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First I didn't even notice this was two months old but that explains the weird numbers and why Carson does best. Meaningless now.

Second, what was set about the Minnesota GOP's incompetence. In 2013 they weren't able to even pay the rent on their HQ and we're evicted, much less establish a statewide ground game. No wonder they have not won a statewide election in 10 years and got over 50% in 20.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Keep dreaming right-wingers and use tons of resources ( like last election with Pennsylvania) and waste it.

Lol how did we use "tons of resources" on Pennsylvania?

Romney made a last push in the last few weeks for pennsylvania and was a waste that could of been used on Ohio and Flordia...so go ahead waste your time on Minnesota.

[Young Conservative]

This is hilarious. The GOP hasn't had Minnesota 'in their corner' for decades, statewide or nationally.

No,but demographics trends are definitely favoring us in all of the midwest

[Fuzzy Bear]

Minnesota can go Republican in 2016 under the right circumstances. Pawlenty won it in '02 and '06, but by a razor-thin margin. If the GOP ticket is successful, it is possible that they could win it in an upset, but it is likely to go Democratic.

MN has its Republican strongholds, but the entire state is too socially liberal for it to flip.  If Minnesota goes Republican, there will be a GOP landslide of epic proportions; probably bigger than the Bush 41 landslide of 1988. 

[Young Conservative]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

Okay it is NOT trending Democrat. Lol. PS everyone, Minnesota democrats are typically moderate and fairly conservative on social issues. I see no reason why it is implausible for them to begin voting republican when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

[Fuzzy Bear]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

Okay it is NOT trending Democrat. Lol. PS everyone, Minnesota democrats are typically moderate and fairly conservative on social issues. I see no reason why it is implausible for them to begin voting republican when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

Minnesota DEMOCRATS are socially conservative?  Maybe Collin Peterson, but he represents a district that leans Republican anyway.

[Asian Nazi]

This is hilarious. The GOP hasn't had Minnesota 'in their corner' for decades, statewide or nationally.

No,but demographics trends are definitely favoring us in all of the midwest

I know this has been said to you a million times before, but it's worth repeating I guess....

There is no evidence that Midwestern Whites are trending Republican.  Zero.  None.  Nothing.  

[Badger]

I deleted my initial response to this thread, because after looking at the actual numbers I was wrong in claiming Minnesota was effectively out of reach for the GOP barring something approaching A 1988 level national victory margin. Obama's statewide margin of victory last time was approximately 7.7%, almost exactly double his national popular vote margin of approximately 3.85%.. if the Republicans were to win the popular vote nationally by only about the same unimpressive margin Obama did, and assuming - - a big if I know - - Minnesota followed suit, then the state would then be on the Razors Edge of flipping.

Mind you, Republicans need to understand that anything less than an Obama 2012 victory margin nationally almost surely means Hillary will carry MN.

[Kingpoleon]

I deleted my initial response to this thread, because after looking at the actual numbers I was wrong in claiming Minnesota was effectively out of reach for the GOP barring something approaching A 1988 level national victory margin. Obama's statewide margin of victory last time was approximately 7.7%, almost exactly double his national popular vote margin of approximately 3.85%.. if the Republicans were to win the popular vote nationally by only about the same unimpressive margin Obama did, and assuming - - a big if I know - - Minnesota followed suit, then the state would then be on the Razors Edge of flipping.

Mind you, Republicans need to understand that anything less than an Obama 2012 victory margin nationally almost surely means Hillary will carry MN.

If MN trended D, I'd be surprised. If it trends R by even one point, it would be won by as great a margin as NC in 2012 with an Obama 2012 sized victory.

[Badger]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

Okay it is NOT trending Democrat. Lol. PS everyone, Minnesota democrats are typically moderate and fairly conservative on social issues. I see no reason why it is implausible for them to begin voting republican when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

On what issues are Democrats "increasingly liberal" than the same general policies they've run on--and consistently carried Minnesota-- during the last 30-40 years? Voting for dovish, pro-choice, pro-union, economically and socially liberal Democrats is hardly new to Minnesotans. The one exception from past-decades may be Democrats now being solidly pro-gay marriage, which is a popular issue nationally and even more so in MN.

There are other issues at work here that hurt MN Democrats to be sure, but your "analysis" misses them entirely.

[Badger]

I deleted my initial response to this thread, because after looking at the actual numbers I was wrong in claiming Minnesota was effectively out of reach for the GOP barring something approaching A 1988 level national victory margin. Obama's statewide margin of victory last time was approximately 7.7%, almost exactly double his national popular vote margin of approximately 3.85%.. if the Republicans were to win the popular vote nationally by only about the same unimpressive margin Obama did, and assuming - - a big if I know - - Minnesota followed suit, then the state would then be on the Razors Edge of flipping.

Mind you, Republicans need to understand that anything less than an Obama 2012 victory margin nationally almost surely means Hillary will carry MN.

If MN trended D, I'd be surprised. If it trends R by even one point, it would be won by as great a margin as NC in 2012 with an Obama 2012 sized victory.

I initially would've agreed, but just checked and was surprised to find MN trended nearly a full point between 2008 and 2012. Some of that may be from McCain hitting the floor a GOP presidential candidate can get in MN, but doesn't necessarily indicate Republicans can expect a trend in their direction next year.

[Minnesota Mike]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

Okay it is NOT trending Democrat. Lol. PS everyone, Minnesota democrats are typically moderate and fairly conservative on social issues. I see no reason why it is implausible for them to begin voting republican when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

Minnesota Democrats conservative on social issues? Wow that's news to me and I live here.  The state has voted for those noted social conservatives Barack Obama, Al Franken, Amy Klobuchar and Mark Dayton. In addition it was one of the first states to vote against an anti gay marriage amendment.

And yes Minnesota is trending more Democratic and not just at the Presidential level. see my above post.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Minnesota is a bit of a teaser, although not entirely impossible for Republicans.  It was -1, -6, -3, -4 in the last four elections.  Not much of a trend other than from 2000 to 2004 and that was in the Democrats' favor.  As soon as it looks hopeful, it becomes a little further out of reach.  I wouldn't waist my time in MN unless I was up by a good bit.  States like FL, VA, OH, WI, IA, NH, CO, PA, NV matter more.

[ProudModerate2]

... when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

Yes possibly, but in the same breath, you should also say that ....
"When Republicans are increasingly conservative and are isolating any & all non-white voters."
(Which is a long-term losing strategy in the US of A.)

[DS0816]

Minnesota can go Republican in 2016 under the right circumstances. Pawlenty won it in '02 and '06, but by a razor-thin margin. If the GOP ticket is successful, it is possible that they could win it in an upset, but it is likely to go Democratic.

As everyone on this site knows…the same-level numbers of voters participate in midterm elections as they do in presidential elections.