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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, Justice TJ)
| | |-+  Which of these 2012 Dem states are the most likely to go GOP in 2016?
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Poll
Question: Which 2012 Dem state is the most likely to go GOP in 2016?
Oregon   -1 (1.4%)
Washington   -0 (0%)
New Mexico   -3 (4.2%)
California   -1 (1.4%)
Illinois   -2 (2.8%)
New York   -0 (0%)
Vermont   -0 (0%)
Minnesota   -28 (39.4%)
Maine   -2 (2.8%)
Washington D.C (HA NO)   -2 (2.8%)
Delaware   -0 (0%)
Maryland   -0 (0%)
New Jersey   -2 (2.8%)
Connecticut   -0 (0%)
Rhode Island   -0 (0%)
Massachusetts   -0 (0%)
Michigan   -28 (39.4%)
Hawaii   -2 (2.8%)
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Which of these 2012 Dem states are the most likely to go GOP in 2016?  (Read 1495 times)
House Majority Leader Haslam2020
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« on: December 24, 2015, 07:10:24 pm »
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Which ones?
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Frodo
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2015, 07:55:50 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2015, 07:57:13 pm »
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Minnesota, easily.

This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

Even if NH were included in the list, it wouldn't be the correct answer.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2015, 08:04:42 pm by TNvolunteer »Logged

2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2015, 10:17:41 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue
Because those are obviously going to flip so he does not needed to mention those states
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Fritz
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2015, 10:21:55 pm »
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Sorry guys, Minnesota ain't flippin' this year.  From that list, Michigan is most likely.
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2015, 10:46:44 pm »
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The Silent Majority stands with King!
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2015, 11:07:54 pm »
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Michigan, it could happen with Kasich, Rubio, or even Trump.
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House Majority Leader Haslam2020
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2015, 11:12:38 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2015, 11:18:30 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground

NH isn't battleground.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2015, 11:50:03 pm »
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I'm going to go out and say Michigan over Minnesota. A bit more predominant white blue collar working class demographic. Neither have a dream of flipping in 11 months, but in the '16 environment and conditions, MI flips before MN. Easily.

On another topic, Merry Christmas to all my Atlas friends. God bless.
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« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2015, 12:02:37 am »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground

NH isn't battleground.

To the real world it is.
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« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2015, 01:31:01 am »
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Wow some of you people are dumber than dirt.
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« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2015, 01:49:29 am »
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It's obviously going to be D.C.
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« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2015, 03:01:37 am »
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Minnesota or Maine, but none of them will likely be Republican.
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« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2015, 05:00:37 am »
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Minnesota, the closest of these states in 2008,  could be the closest of these if the 2008 pattern holds. It will be 52-47 in a bare Republican win and 57-42 in a Clinton landslide.

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« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2015, 06:31:29 am »
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Wisconsin; maybe if Walker is VP.

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« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2015, 10:59:23 am »
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Michigan or Minnesota
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« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2015, 11:57:54 am »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground

NH isn't battleground.

To the real world it is.

No wonder that Republicans can't win presidential elections in the real world then.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2015, 12:48:37 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground

NH isn't battleground.

To the real world it is.

No wonder that Republicans can't win presidential elections in the real world then.

You can consistently lose a battleground state by a close margin and it can still be a battleground.  Face it, NH is usually pretty close, Republicans have won several races there over the last 20 years and it'll be contested because of this.  Merry Christmas.
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2015, 03:17:17 pm »
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This list is notable by the absence of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  Tongue

yes but I'm trying to get states which arent considered battleground

NH isn't battleground.

To the real world it is.

No wonder that Republicans can't win presidential elections in the real world then.

You can consistently lose a battleground state by a close margin and it can still be a battleground.  Face it, NH is usually pretty close, Republicans have won several races there over the last 20 years and it'll be contested because of this.  Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas! Smiley Let me just point out that Republicans have won just two statewide races in NH since 2004 (NH-Sen 2004 and NH-Sen 2010). Nothing else. Nada. They've won far more statewide races in Maine and even in Vermont since then. Republicans may come close to winning NH in wave years, but they never actually WIN it (BUT MUH KELLY AYOTTE!!!11!). It's an inelastic state with a very high Democratic floor and most faux "Independents" there are actually Democrats. Republicans should just write off NH already.
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2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
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« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2015, 03:28:54 pm »
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GOP arent winning any of these just like Dems arent gonna win others. Oregon was a battleground, but it looks like Trump can win NH. That will be the only stste he can come close to winning.
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« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2015, 06:18:36 pm »
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Utterly dumbfounded that MI has any votes, let alone is leading MN. Do the math people. Angry
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« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2015, 04:22:23 am »
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Utterly dumbfounded that MI has any votes, let alone is leading MN. Do the math people. Angry

Here's a sample of their math:


2016 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
U.S. Popular Vote: Trump 62% | Clinton 37%
Whites (80): Trump 66% | Clinton 33%
All Remaining Non-Whites (20): Trump 47% | Clinton 51%


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« Reply #23 on: December 26, 2015, 11:03:15 am »
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Utterly dumbfounded that MI has any votes, let alone is leading MN. Do the math people. Angry

Minnesota by default as the closest of those states in 2008. It just doesn't swing much in overall vote. It does swing severely against Republicans with respect to the national average in Republican blowouts -- as the second-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and the worst for Reagan in 1984. (It did go R+ in one of the Eisenhower elections, which says much about Ike). It was near the middle of the pack for Obama in 2008, though.

Voting habits are very rigid in Minnesota. The state just does not swing.

...Barack Obama is the most polarizing of Presidential nominees ever, winning some states as if a Democratic version of Reagan in 1984 and losing as if the second coming of George McGovern in some others. It is hard to see anyone with such a divide in voting for him and against him ever happening again. 
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« Reply #24 on: December 26, 2015, 11:17:10 am »
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Utterly dumbfounded that MI has any votes, let alone is leading MN. Do the math people. Angry

Here's a sample of their math:


2016 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
U.S. Popular Vote: Trump 62% | Clinton 37%
Whites (80): Trump 66% | Clinton 33%
All Remaining Non-Whites (20): Trump 47% | Clinton 51%

Anyone who expects any Presidential nominee to win more than 60% of the vote is nuts at this stage. One can make a mathematical model that can predict anything... but even if one uses mathematical models to predict something absurd, the problem is not with the mathematics.

Boundary conditions are relevant. I played games with one of the models and I did not see Democrats winning in any Southern states other than VA, FL, and NC before Democrats picked up Indiana... A Democrat who gets 33% of the white vote in Mississippi is going to win Mississippi.

2008 and 2012 were freaks because Barack Obama was what he is. On the other hand, he won, and he showed that Democrats can largely write off rural areas with impunity. He knew how to get mass audiences available in urban and suburban areas (the distinction between cities and suburbs is weakening).
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