"Donald Trump has no electoral path to becoming the republican nominee"

[The Mikado]

From the same guy,

"Loser: Donald Trump: His plan was to take over the republican party by force, and amass enough popularity that the party couldn’t stop him from becoming the nominee. Although he’s firmly in first place in his party, he’s about twenty points short of where he would need to be to secure the nomination. That means the party can easily take the nomination away from him at the convention and give it to an actual republican. In the mean time he’s alienated the mainstream so thoroughly that there will be no return to reality show hosting, no more being America’s harmless crazy uncle. Now he’s just a pariah who is only liked by the kind of losers he’s long detested."

My own view on Trump's chances to be nominated is that they are small, but not because of any "math".  It's about the ability of the Establishment to work the nominating system to broker some kind of deal to nominate ANYONE BUT TRUMP.  I personally think that, in the end, the Establishment will turn to Ted Cruz to make the deal necessary to stop Trump while mollifying his supporters.  I certainly think it is reasonable to think that Donald Trump, while not getting a majority of votes, will end up with more votes than any other GOP candidate.

But make no mistake:  Trump's candidacy has, very much, the look and feel of a hostile corporate takeover.  That's why the GOP resists him so; why there's no real bargaining with him.  Ted Cruz, however much he is loathed by individual insiders, is a stakeholder in the political system, by virtue of being the Junior Senator from Texas and a major Republican officeholder.  He can be appealed to and reached by the Establishment on that basis.  Trump is not, and is not responsive to such appeals.  Can you imagine Trump being willing to comply with a directive from Reince Priebus "for the good of the party"?  Give me a break!  I'll say it again:  Cruz will be the nominee, and for the reasons listed here.

My views on this are somewhat similar, with one big difference: The Establishment wing needs to back Cruz to stop Trump well BEFORE the Convention, as in somewhere between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday. A brokered convention scenario only works if Cruz wins enough delegates in primaries and cacuses to legitimately challenge Trump there.

If Trump wins a solid majority beforehand, it'd be difficult to deny him the nomination no matter how much they try re-writing/twisting the rules in Cleveland. Even if they do it would cripple Cruz. Trump would bolt if he were robbed at the convention, and even if ballot access laws kept his independent run a largely write-in effort, that alone would still be enough to hand the election to Hillary. Additionally , a blatant theft of the nom by party bosses would cross the threshold of what most voters consider standard "inside baseball " politics, and tar Cruz as the ultimate political insider--when his strongest asset inthe general would be to run as an outsider.

I say Cruz rather than Rubio because unless one of two unlikely scenarios come to pass by New Hampshire: a) the Cassandras' constant predictions of Trump's demise finally comes to pass in the early races, so then the Establishment wing can back someone to stop Cruz instead of latching on to him as the last chance to stop The Donald; or b) Rubiomentum unexpectedly reappears so he can reassert himself over Cruz as the real alternative to Trump, or at LEAST competitive enough to be considered a third alternative to Cruz and Trump.

But i don't see either happening. For that matter Christie doesn't have much path to victory if he gets at least a respectible 2nd in NH (if he manages even that). All he really offers is a tougher version of Bush when the GOP primary electorate is clearly screaming for an outsider. He couldn't realistically compete against Trump in the south, and I'm doubtful he can run up big delegate margins in the northeastern base he share with Trump.

So although a lot can still happen in the next several weeks, at this point it seems increasingly likely the GOP establishment is going to have to hold it's nose and back Cruz to the nines if they want to stop Trump, and they can't wait till the convention to do so.

As a matter of strategy for the Establishment, I agree with you on that point.  The Establishment really needs to proceed as you propose in order to preempt what would be the destructive event of a "brokered" convention in which the GOP's dirty laundry of deep divisions would be exposed and televised.  They SHOULD make the deal as you propose.

The question for the Establishment is whether or not they see the need to act as you propose.  The Establishment has been full of Trump Deniers to the point that the reduction of their viable options available in terms of (A) stopping Trump and (B) preserving a chance for victory in the General Election have dwindled immensely.  It's Cruz or Bust for the Establishment.  Their dislike of Cruz (who has gotten personal with them), their economic vestiture in Jeb Bush and their hope for Rubio to be an acceptable candidate to the Trump factions cloud their view of reality, and their track record so far suggests that they may not comprehend reality until deeper into the primary season than Super Tuesday.

True dat. I'll quibble again to say that the Establishment has largely given up on Bush's train wreck campaign by now. Baring a highly unlikely comeback to rival McCain's in 08,  which needs to start immediately after the holidays at latest, he's done and everyone knows it.

I agree with your basic point, though, that the Establishment would deeply prefer almost anyone other than Cruz if they could also stop Trump. This is why they won't move any quicker than after New Hampshire at the earliest to assess whether Rubio or Christie can make headway and if Trump is still a credible threat. Assuming Cruz wins IA with Trump second, and Trump comfortably wins New Hampshire, unless Cruz manages to squeeze out Christie and Rubio for even a week second, the Establishment just may hedge their bets to avoid their second worst scenario of embracing Cruz.

IMHO placing hope in a candidate who finishes well behind Trump in NH, but simply manages to top the rest of the field by a couple points, is foolish. It risks Trump beating Cruz in SC and  making him all the harder to stop on Super Tuesday.

A Bush comeback wouldn't "rival" McCain's. McCain's numbers (both nationally and in the early states) are pretty close to exactly where Marco Rubio is at present, and like Rubio, he was in third place. (Third place with between 10-15% support) Rubio winning would be a comeback to rival McCain. Bush winning would be unprecedented.