From the same guy,
"Loser: Donald Trump: His plan was to take over the republican party by force, and amass enough popularity that the party couldn’t stop him from becoming the nominee. Although he’s firmly in first place in his party, he’s about twenty points short of where he would need to be to secure the nomination. That means the party can easily take the nomination away from him at the convention and give it to an actual republican. In the mean time he’s alienated the mainstream so thoroughly that there will be no return to reality show hosting, no more being America’s harmless crazy uncle. Now he’s just a pariah who is only liked by the kind of losers he’s long detested."
My own view on Trump's chances to be nominated is that they are small, but not because of any "math". It's about the ability of the Establishment to work the nominating system to broker some kind of deal to nominate ANYONE BUT TRUMP. I personally think that, in the end, the Establishment will turn to Ted Cruz to make the deal necessary to stop Trump while mollifying his supporters. I certainly think it is reasonable to think that Donald Trump, while not getting a majority of votes, will end up with more votes than any other GOP candidate.
But make no mistake: Trump's candidacy has, very much, the look and feel of a hostile corporate takeover. That's why the GOP resists him so; why there's no real bargaining with him. Ted Cruz, however much he is loathed by individual insiders, is a stakeholder in the political system, by virtue of being the Junior Senator from Texas and a major Republican officeholder. He can be appealed to and reached by the Establishment on that basis. Trump is not, and is not responsive to such appeals. Can you imagine Trump being willing to comply with a directive from Reince Priebus "for the good of the party"? Give me a break! I'll say it again: Cruz will be the nominee, and for the reasons listed here.