Analyzing Hispanic Turnout

[ElectionsGuy]

We know Hispanics don't turnout out good, but digging deep into the data suggests they really don't turnout good, especially in places like Texas, but also similarly bad in the central valley of California and Phoenix, Arizona, among other places. I decided to take very white and very Hispanic areas of Texas, about the same population, and compare them vote wise. These first ones are in rural western Texas, one of the most Republican places in the country. There's no way to tell how much of the electorate is actually Hispanic in these very Hispanic areas, but its probably more like 50% than 80%. Its no wonder why so many of these counties are majority Hispanic yet vote overwhelmingly Republican when you see this...

Population: 62,659 (79.3% Hispanic, 16.0% White)
VAP: 43,065 (76.5% Hispanic, 18.7% White)

McCain: 6,159 (50.4%)
Obama: 6,058 (49.6%)

Total: 12,217 (28.4% of VAP)


Population: 62,497 (81.4% White, 14.7% Hispanic)
VAP: 46,841 (83.8% White, 12.5% Hispanic)

McCain: 22,531 (81.4%)
Obama: 5,143 (18.6%)

Total: 27,674 (59.1% of VAP)


And its not just rural Hispanics. In fact, urban Hispanics probably turn out worse. For example, very Hispanic and white areas in Houston.

Population: 62,200 (84.7% Hispanic, 10.1% White)
VAP: 40,742 (80.5% Hispanic, 13.5% White)

Obama: 3,864 (56.8%)
McCain: 2,937 (43.2%)

Total: 6,801 (16.7% of VAP)


Population: 63,384 (80.7% White)
VAP: 51,076 (81.5% White)

McCain: 21,256 (60.5%)
Obama: 13,874 (39.5%)

Total: 35,130 (68.8% of VAP)

Hispanics are voting Democratic, they're just voting in small numbers. Its astonishing the potential for Democrats if Hispanics had similar turnout rates as whites and blacks, but if they don't turnout out, they don't count. I'm well aware that Texas Hispanics probably turnout out worse than most other states' Hispanics, but its to show a pattern.

If all ethnic/racial groups turned out the same, the Texas Governor race last year would've been 53-45 instead of 59-39, for example. That's a 12 point difference that would have the potential to flip many races across the country into the Democrats control.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the precincts I used:



red (Hispanic)
purple (White)



gray (Hispanic)
green (White)

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty much (sans areas where there are multiple, established generations of Hispanics that have more or less "become white" in terms of integration), there's a general rule of thumb: take their share of the population, and 40% of that number will be their share of the electorate. It can very a few points in one direction or another depending on the exact community, state, and so forth, but it generally holds true.

This is because you have to take non-citizens out of the picture, then children (Hispanic populations always skew younger than the total population; furthermore, most children are citizens and certainly a larger share than among the overall population), and then you have to account for the lack of social integration into civic institutions (political engagement often starts in the home; if your parents aren't citizens, chances are you're not discussing politics/voting at home).

I'll use my county as an example:

Hispanic population: 33%
Hispanic citizen population: 18%
Hispanic CVAP: 15%
Hispanic share of 2012 vote: 13%

13/33 = 39.4%