March Madness

[mencken]

It was a hot summer day in July, and RNC chairman Reince Preibus was facing harsh criticism for the looming exclusion of several presidential candidates from the upcoming debate. Frustrated, Priebus scrapped the previous plans, and decided to make an entire new format for the GOP's presidential primaries:

1. The first four primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada) would be restricted to four different candidates each. Candidates will be allowed to determine with primary they choose to compete in, with preference given to the candidates highest in the RCP average.
2. The top two vote recipients in each of the first four contests will advance to Super Tuesday. Each primary will be restricted to four candidates. Candidates will be allowed to compete in half of the primaries of their choice, with preference given to the candidates in order of their percentage performance in the first four contests.
3. The four candidates with the most first-place finishes on Super Tuesday (with second-place finishes used as a tie-breaker) will advance to the remaining contests prior to March 15. Each primary will be restricted to two candidates. Candidates will be allowed to compete in half of the primaries of their choice, with preference given to the candidates in order of their number of Super Tuesday wins (with second-place finishes used as a tie-breaker)
5. The two candidates with the most overall primary wins will then compete against each other in the remaining primaries.

Some of the candidates reacted incredulously to these new requirements, although all eventually acquiesed to the odd new requirements:

• Trump, as the current leader in the RCP Average, got first dips on which primary he wished to compete in. Both due to his unique popularity in the state and a desire to upend the hopes of Bush, Trump opted to compete in the New Hampshire primary.
• Bush was reluctant to compete in caucus states such as Iowa and Nevada. Reasoning that he would need to prevent centrist alternatives from emerging (and judging Trump to be a paper tiger), Bush filed for the New Hampshire primary.
• Walker decided on the Iowa caucuses without hesitation.
• Rubio judged that he would have the best chance of surviving the initial heat by competing in South Carolina.
• Carson felt that he could most effectively exploit white guilt by competing in the South Carolina primary.
• Huckabee felt that he would have the best chance by seeking to replicate his 2008 Iowa caucus victory.
• Paul sought to increase his chance of surviving to Super Tuesday by filing in the libertarian-leaning caucus state of Nevada.
• Cruz felt that he would face the least opposition from other social conservative candidates by competiting against Paul in Nevada, which could also potentially win over Paul's supporters if he were eliminated.
• Christie and Kasich both sought to up-end Bush in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is now closed to other candidates.
• Perry felt that he could beat expectations in Iowa, since Huckabee and Santorum would likely split the most extreme social conservative vote.
• Santorum filed for Iowa, as expected. Iowa is now closed to other candidates.
• Fiorina felt she would win over moderates by competing against Paul and Cruz in Nevada.
• Jindal felt South Carolina offered him the best opportunity.
• Graham filed for his home state, leaving Pataki with Nevada and Gilmore with American Samoa.

To be continued...

[NewYorkExpress]

I almost wish the GOP actually was doing this... Should be a great show!!!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wow, Gilmore is going to win a primary? Amazing!

This is a completely ridiculous premise, but it is a very welcome change from the ordinary. I am eagerly awaiting more!

[mencken]

The First Debates

Scott Walker held his ground at the first presidential debate, appearing confident and giving concise bread-and-butter conservative answers to policy questions. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum aimed most of their ammunition at each other rather than attacking the other candidates, with Santorum calling attention to Huckabee's flip-flop on Common Core and poor fiscal record while Huckabee criticized Santorum's 2004 endorsement of late pro-choice Senator Arlen Specter. Rick Perry beat low expectations at the debate, avoiding many of the fumbles that plagued his performance four years earlier. Perry also appeared to be surprisingly more knowledgeable of local issues to Iowans than frontrunner Walker.

Gravis Marketing Iowa Poll
Woker 34%
Huckabee 25%
Parry 20%
Santorum 16%

The subsequent debate in New Hampshire drew significantly higher ratings. Trump lambasted all three of his opponents equitably, with responses in kind. The eccentric billionaire frequently spoke out of turn and exceeded the time requirement to exclaim vague platitudes and hurl ad hominems at the other candidates, the moderators, and occasionally members of the audience who sat in the first three rows. Kasich sought to brandish his credentials as a compassionate conservative, while Bush continued to beat the immigration reform horse. Christie was most combative with Trump, calling him a "bombastic loudmouth" without a hint of irony.

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Poll
Bush 26%
Kasich 23%
Trump 22%
Christie 12%

[Brewer]

Love this idea!

[mencken]

Debates (continued)...

The third debate was publicized as the GOP's "Diversity Debate," as it featured three ethnic minorities and one furtive sexual minority. While the debate achieved more attention than the first debate for this reason, the event itself was forgettable. Marco Rubio and favorite son Lindsey Graham feuded a little over how many countries they would bomb or invade. Nobody really listened to what Ben Carson said, but like dogs they very much enjoyed the tone of his speech. Bobby Jindal tried and failed to distinguish himself as a serious conservative standard-bearer, with poorly executed attacks against Carson and Rubio.

Insider Advantage South Carolina Poll
Graham 25%
Rubio 17%
Carson 17%
Jindal 3%

The Nevada caucuses were doomed to irrelevance as soon as the selection for its contestants was made. Exactly twelve people tuned in to watch the fourth debate, at least two of whom were in Wichita, Kansas. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz both made slighted references to perceived deficiencies in the other's conservative record on defense issues and federalism, respectively. Carly Fiorina defended herself against recent allegations that she was an even more hopelessly incompetent CEO at Hewlett Packard than previously believed, constrasting her performance with Hillary Clinton's at Benghazi. George Pataki was present as well.

ARG Nevada poll
Fiorina 16%
Cruz 11%
Pataki 11%
Paul 8%

[mencken]

The Fall (2015) Campaign

Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the new byzantine primary format was Scott Walker, whose advantage in Iowa deterred all but a few retreads from competing in the state. Walker felt so secure in his lead that he increasingly began to stake out some of the Super Tuesday contests, such as Minnesota, Tennessee, and Virginia. Of the repeat candidates, Perry continued to have the best organization, earning endorsements from several state legislators and evangelical leaders, while Santorum and Huckabee both struggled from being understaffed and having their feet in their mouths.

Vox Populi Iowa Poll
Walker 39%
Perry 25%
Santorum 13%
Huckabee 12%

Anti-Bush sentiment proved surprisingly resilient in New Hampshire. Kasich's efforts to control his temper and present himself as an electable conservative without the Bush name worked wonders with New Hampshire's independent-minded voters. Increasingly desperate to avoid the embarassment of losing his first primary, Bush and his "unaffiliated" PACs flooded the New Hampshire airwaves with seven figures worth of attack ads against the self-righteous Governor of Ohio. Much of Trump's luster had faded in the months since he declared his candidacy, with his low 20s performance in the polls looking less impressive against Kasich's consolidated support. Hoping to knock Bush out of second, Trump likewise took "tens of miyons of dalahs" out of his personal fortune to attack Bush's record on local media outlets. Despite all of this, most New Hampshire voters found those choices preferable to professional blowhard Chris Christie.

Boston College New Hampshire Poll
Kasich 48%
Bush 27%
Trump 15%
Christie 9%

South Carolina stood out as the biggest wild-card of the first round, with no candidate getting a clear advantage over the other. Business interests continued to be torn between currying favor with their senior Senator and backing Rubio, who had a better chance of surviving the second round. While Carson continued to do well with social conservatives, he had not yet reached a critical mass with that electorate. Jindal picked up some momentum with an endorsement from Governor Nikki Haley and the subsequent conservative outrage to the predicable racially-tinged jokes made by liberal commentators.

YouGov South Carolina Poll
Carson 21%
Graham 19%
Rubio 19%
Jindal 10%

Nevada's caucus continued to be the bane of the Republican establishment. With his large campaign warchest and courting of Sheldon Adelson, Cruz was easily able to seize an organizational advantage in this state with large tea-party presence. Paul received a slight bump from a tacit endorsement from Governor Brian Sandoval, which he erroneously attributed to his commitment to Hispanic outreach. In reality, Nevada Republican officials' hopes for a good Fiorina performance were dashed by her financial scandals, and they reasoned that having both Cruz and Paul advance to the next round would be a "less bad" outcome than having Cruz come out of the gates with a landslide win.

LVRJ Nevada Poll
Cruz 17%
Fiorina 9%
Paul 8%
Pataki 6%

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The Nevada caucuses were doomed to irrelevance as soon as the selection for its contestants was made. Exactly twelve people tuned in to watch the fourth debate, at least two of whom were in Wichita, Kansas. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz both made slighted references to perceived deficiencies in the other's conservative record on defense issues and federalism, respectively. Carly Fiorina defended herself against recent allegations that she was an even more hopelessly incompetent CEO at Hewlett Packard than previously believed, constrasting her performance with Hillary Clinton's at Benghazi. George Pataki was present as well.

Clever!

I'm liking this so far. A very original idea.

[mencken]

The Punditocracy

This is Nate Silver and Harry Enten, from 538.com. Using historical data on presidential primaries going back to 1844, we have taken variables such as poll numbers, fundraising, home state support, eye color, momentum, the tides, crowd sizes, 34 separate measurements of candidate ideology, the price of gas, and sunspots to determine the exact probabilities of each candidate advancing to the next round:

Iowa Scott Walker 99.729583% Rick Perry 72.948302% Rick Santorum 14.395839% Mike Huckabee 12.926276%

New Hampshire John Kasich 94.236673% Jeb Bush 87.137980% Donald Trump 13.698003% Chris Christie 4.927344%

South Carolina Ben Carson 78.584387% Lindsey Graham 75.023714% Bobby Jindal 25.264121% Marco Rubio 21.127777%

Nevada Ted Cruz 98.967468% Rand Paul 52.115640% Carly Fiorina 42.166109% George Pataki 6.750782%

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Picks for the Next Round

...We expect that John Kasich will win New Hampshire with the largest plurality. Following will be Ted Cruz, who has effectively targeted the state of Nevada. Slots number 3 and 4 will go to Scott Walker and Ben Carson; whoever wins South Carolina will probably have a small plurality. Our choices for second place in each contest will be a bit more controversial. We suspect that, like 2008 and 2012, the social conservatives will coalesce behind one candidate at the last minute, and that will once again push Rick Santorum to a strong finish. We believe Bobby Jindal has the big mo right now, which will give him the sixth slot. Carly Fiorina takes Nevada very narrowly over Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush will get the final slot, which will be a disadvantage the Bush campaign has to face for primary selection.

[mencken]

Iowa



Walker 53.0%
Perry 17.9%
Santorum 15.3%
Huckabee 13.8%

Walker got the performance in Iowa he was hoping for, winning the biggest landslide in the history of the contest. Perry floundered toward the finish, as it became apparent that there was more to blame for his 2012 troubles than back problems. Nevertheless, the Texas Governor will go on to the second round, albeit with a poor selection order and no momentum. Perry is hoping to prevail in his home state as well as other Southern primaries held that day. However, Walker's huge win has given him a large boost in many of the Super Tuesday states.

In other states, Bush and Rubio continue to seek to reverse poor polling numbers by flooding the airwaves of their respective primaries, with mixed results. However, Sanders's strong win over Clinton in Iowa bodes potential good news for Bush, as many independent voters may choose to participate in the Democratic contest rather than vote for one of Bush's primary opponents.

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Poll Kasich 46% Bush 33% Trump 16% Christie 3%

Clemson South Carolina Poll Graham 25% Carson 18% Jindal 15% Rubio 12%

We Ask America Nevada Poll Cruz 25% Paul 11% Fiorina 10% Pataki 6%

[mencken]

New Hampshire



Kasich 46.2%
Bush 31.2%
Trump 19.7%
Christie 3.0%

Despite Bush unleashing much of his campaign warchest in the state, he was unable to overcome a large win by Kasich. Trump's participation in the race ensured that Bush would be caught in a brutal war of attrition in the state, with nearly $200 million total being spent on the state. The Bush-Trump ad war may have actually bolstered Kasich's position in the race, as voters were turned off by both candidates. Kasich and Bush are expected to continue to face off in primaries such as Vermont, Massachusetts, and Virginia.

[mencken]

South Carolina and Nevada

Graham 28.9% Jindal 28.4% Carson 22.4% Rubio 20.2%

Cruz 50.7% Paul 20.9% Fiorina 18.8% Pataki 9.6%

Rubio's flooding of the South Carolina airwaves was unable to overcome Jindal's momentum, and in an incredible close heat Graham and Jindal finished slightly ahead of their competitors. Many doubt Graham's viability in the second round, and suspect his victory will make the South Carolina primary discredited in future.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, Cruz's appeal with the far-right bought him a landslide win in the caucuses. Paul, with his tendency to beat polling expectations in caucus states, squeaked out a second-place finish against Fiorina. Cruz also benefited by choosing the latest contest, as the Texas senator is now has the momentum heading into the Super Tuesday contests.

National Poll (Gravis Marketing)
Walker 23%
Cruz 22%
Bush 15%
Kasich 12%
Jindal 8%
Paul 6%
Graham 3%
Perry 0%

Coming up next in round 2....venue selection drama, a surprise debate host, and, um, um, what was the third one?

[mencken]

Role Play

Now that the first round had come to pass, each candidate would have the opportunity to select the primaries they would compete in, with the restriction that no primary would have more than four candidates competing. Each candidate had different interests in mind when selecting their primaries:

• Walker wanted to compete in Minnesota, Virginia, Tennessee, and any Southern states where Cruz was not a factor.
• Cruz sought to compete in as many Southern states as possible.
• Kasich (and Bush) sought to compete in Vermont and Massachusetts, in addition to any states with a divided conservative vote.
• Graham, with no chance to advance himself, sought to block Cruz (and Paul) at every opportunity
• Jindal (and Perry) sought to compete in Southern states where Cruz was not a factor.
• Paul sought to compete in caucus states Colorado and Minnesota, and present himself as a conservative alternate to Kasich and Bush in Vermont and Massachusetts.

For their first primary, Walker and Cruz selected Minnesota and Texas, to defend their home turf. Kasich selected Virginia, feeling that Vermont and Massachusetts were secure. Graham selected Oklahoma, correctly forseeing that it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy that Jindal and Perry would also compete in Oklahoma. Bush also chose Oklahoma, feeling that Jindal and Perry were weak opponents and it would be better than leaving Walker to snatch Oklahoma. Paul selected Vermont.

For the second primary, Walker selected Virginia, to prevent a similar maneuver from being used against him. Cruz selected Alabama for similar reasons. Kasich selected Georgia, predicting that Graham, et al would follow suit. Graham correctly anticipated that Bush would view Kasich as more of a threat in Virginia than Georgia, and consequently fulfilled Kasich's expectations. Jindal and Perry also chose to compete in Georgia. Paul selected Virginia, hoping the Cuccinelli endorsement could boost him against the establishment candidates in that contest.

For the third primary, Walker selected Tennessee, thus completing his trifecta. Cruz selected Arkansas, feeling his chances better there than in Tennessee. Kasich and Graham continued their duet in Colorado, forcing Bush yet again to also compete in Colorado. Jindal sought to exploit the split establishment vote by joining them. Paul jealously guarded the other caucus state of Minnesota, while Perry took his home state in this round.

With few good options left, Walker viewed Alabama as his least bad option. Cruz and Kasich seized Tennessee and Vermont, respectively. Graham chose Minnesota to keep the anti-Paul vote from being split three ways. Bush guarded Massachusetts. Perry and Jindal both chose Arkansas, and Paul chose Massachusetts.

Walker felt, as a fellow resident of a cheese-making state, Vermont would be the best remaining opportunity. Cruz and Kasich tapped Minnesota and Massachusetts, respectively. Graham selected Tennessee by default. Bush guarded Vermont. Jindal, Paul, and Perry took Tennessee, Texas, and Alabama, respectively.

For the bonus picks, Walker selected Arkansas, Cruz took Massachusetts by default, Kasich opted for Texas, and Graham was left with Alabama.

I promise that the next update will be more interesting than this low stakes game of Risk.

[mencken]

Celebrity Apprentice: Presidential Edition

Only one debate was held in the lead-up to Super Tuesday. Former candidate Donald Trump threatened to launch a third-party bid unless all eight candidates agreed to participate in a debate with himself as host. The "debate" ended up being an eight-hour marathon of Celebrity Apprentice, with limited commercial interruption, in which Trump would demand candidates perform menial tasks in between answering Trump's questions, after which Trump would "fire" the candidates. Perry and Graham were first to get fired due to their uppity attitudes. Cruz ended up being the winner of the debate, after Bush refused Trump's demand that Columba clean his living room.

As far as the rest of the campaign went, notable endorsements included Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA), Governor Mary Fallin (R-OK), and Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO) for Bush, Congressman David Brat (R-VA) and Governor Bill Haslam (R-TN) for Walker, Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) for Cruz, and most of Georgia's House delegation for Jindal. Bush, having depleted most of his warchest in the New Hampshire campaign, ironically found himself significantly outspent by his opponents.

In other news, by a 6-9 vote, Gilmore lost the American Samoa primary to Deez Nuts. Nuts will go on to face Vermin Supreme in Guam.

[mencken]

Super Tuesday

Vermont
Kasich 46%, Walker 31%, Paul 13%, Bush 10%

A stunningly bad performance for Bush as Kasich delivered a similar performance to neighboring state New Hampshire.

Georgia
Jindal 38%, Kasich 29%, Perry 28%, Graham 6%

Kasich ultimately was not able to coalesce enough voters in the Atlanta metro area to overcome Jindal's lead in the Southern part of the state.

Massachusetts
Bush 44%, Kasich 40%, Paul 13%, Cruz 2%

Bush somehow managed to keep Kasich at bay in the larger prize of New England.

Virginia
Walker 42%, Bush 22%, Kasich 21%, Paul 15%

The split establishment vote left Walker with a big win, due to large margins outside of Northern Virginia.

Alabama
Cruz 49%, Walker 35%, Perry 11%, Graham 6%

In fairness, Walker was not seriously competing here.

Tennessee
Walker 39%, Cruz 29%, Jindal 25%, Graham 8%

Arkansas
Cruz 38%, Walker 34%, Jindal 17%, Perry 11%

Minnesota
Walker 42%, Cruz 32%, Paul 23%

Walker's home court advantage prevailed here.

Oklahoma
Perry 41%, Bush 37%, Jindal 17%, Graham 5%

Perry showed surprising resilience in this small state.

Texas
Cruz 33%, Kasich 30%, Perry 21%, Paul 15%

Kasich delivered a strong performance in two other candidates' home states.

Colorado
Jindal 65%, Bush 27%

Jindal's large margins in the Colorado Springs area gave him a landslide win over Bush.

These results created a bit of controversy over who would get to advance to Round 3. While Walker, Cruz, and Jindal were all safe bets, Bush and Kasich tied as far as both first-place and second-place performances. Consequently, Reince Preibus decided that the fairest thing to do would be to make the Maine caucuses a sudden-death elimination Round 3.5...

[DDGE]

I'm loving this thread! Reminds me of some primary reform proposals that used to be discussed in other US Election Atlas forums, with this sort of "play-off" system that is being proposed. Why did you come up with this particular idea?

[defe07]

Boy, I was expecting more from this thread!

[mencken]

Boy, I was expecting more from this thread!

Sorry, I just sort of ran out of steam .

Please enjoy my new timeline about Donald Trump's Presidency though.

[defe07]

I could imagine a March Madness format with a two-round system in each state. Let me explain, if you have 12 candidates, you'd have 4 candidates make it to the final round and the other 8 candidates would face off in the first round for 4 other final round slots. I'd do this by making sure each candidate would be given equal chance to fight in the first round and the second round. And this would be done by Congressional District! What if a state has only 1 at-large district? Simple. Use the state legislative districts and allocate the candidates in both rounds at random. So, you could see Trump in the first round for district X but Trump in the final round for district Y.

[Kingpoleon]

Maine for Kasich!