GOP destined to lose again?

[Sir Mohamed]

Very interesting article, but I think a bit too optimistic for Democrats: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/28/get-ready-why-2016-will-be-totally-nuts.html

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Anyone that gives the Democrats MO, GA & AZ is immediately discredited.

[smoltchanov]

Anyone that gives the Democrats MO, GA & AZ is immediately discredited.

+1. May be - AZ & GA 10-15 years from now, but surely - not in 2016

[DS0816]

Anyone that gives the Democrats MO, GA & AZ is immediately discredited.

Those states, plus Indiana, are winnable for a prevailing Democrat with a high single-digit national margin carrying the U.S. Popular Vote.

[Suburbia]

Anyone that gives the Democrats MO, GA & AZ is immediately discredited.

MO is winnable for the Democrats under the right circumstances, dude. It could happen.

[Sir Mohamed]

Anyone that gives the Democrats MO, GA & AZ is immediately discredited.

MO is winnable for the Democrats under the right circumstances, dude. It could happen.

Yep, but GA is (slightly) more likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can definitely win with CO, NV & Pa for 272, as Nate Silver called it, but polls have showed a close race with Obama stuck at 46 approvals. She wont win in a landslide.

[Devils30]

AZ, MO, IN, GA are too optimistic against most candidates but factor in the possibility that Trump will say a lot of very stupid things. Cruz may be too religious for Arizona but probably holds inelastic Georgia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton is going for CO, NV & Pa, Latino corridor. Eventhough, Dems want to win OH or Va. The planned parenthood defunding in repeal of obamacare works well in Co, due to the recent shooting. And Castro will help her there, too.

[Virginiá]

Clinton is going for CO, NV & Pa, Latino corridor. Eventhough, Dems want to win OH or Va. The planned parenthood defunding in repeal of obamacare works well in Co, due to the recent shooting. And Castro will help her there, too.

I am curious how the gun control push will work out for Clinton in Colorado. If I recall correctly, voters recalled 2 Democrats for pushing gun control there in 2013 or 2014. I just don't get why Clinton had to run with this. All gun control advocates know Democrats are the party to vote for on that and making it an issue in her campaign only serves to push away voters in important swing states. Colorado it seems to have a negative impact, Virginia's 2015 gun control ad blitz didn't hurt Democratic candidates (apparently, anyway), but it didn't help them either.

Not sure exactly what states she was hoping it would help her in that she didn't already have a lock on.

[sg0508]

2012 was the year for the Democrats to make a serious run at GA and AZ.  Obama didn't and lost them by safe margins to the GOP.  The possibility to make plays for both of those states is still there, however.  2016 though (non-incumbent year) isn't likely to be it.

The biggest deal of the 2012 cycle was Obama holding FL for the Democrats.  That should have shaken up the GOP more than anything.  There was NO reason for Romney to lose FL.

Again, if the Republicans lose FL, they're pretty much done.

[pbrower2a]

AZ, MO, IN, GA are too optimistic against most candidates but factor in the possibility that Trump will say a lot of very stupid things. Cruz may be too religious for Arizona but probably holds inelastic Georgia.

Arizona -- the fast-growing Mexican-American electorate might not be growing fast enough to flip the state D. But Donald Trump can offend enough Mormon sensibilities due to his personal life (no other potential Republican nominee does this) to weaken the Republican vote enough to create an opening for Hillary Clinton winning the state.

Georgia -- approval polls in recent years for Republican elected officials indicate the potential for some cracking of the GOP coalition in Georgia. 

Indiana, Missouri -- mentioned together because Democrats won Senate seats in 2012 despite Barack Obama losing the states by 10%. Republicans ran Senate candidates who made fools of themselves with extremist positions.

...To be daring I might add another state that has been reliably Republican for a long time: Kansas. Republicans have barely won some statewide elections in a wave year for Republicans.     

[Virginiá]

...To be daring I might add another state that has been reliably Republican for a long time: Kansas. Republicans have barely won some statewide elections in a wave year for Republicans.     

Had that one been held on on a presidential election year, or on a midterm under a Republican president, I could easily see it going to Davis. I think the Republican majority in the legislature is far too large & entrenched to flip but if the state is still doing badly in 2018 and people are still angry about it, it could be a worthwhile target again.

[Ebsy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I laughed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a neutral year like this one is shaping up to be, Southern states are less important and road to White House lies in the Southwest & Iowa, Dems are gonna cherry their races and focus less on the House and more on Senate, as we get close to Election day.

[DS0816]

AZ, MO, IN, GA are too optimistic against most candidates but factor in the possibility that Trump will say a lot of very stupid things. Cruz may be too religious for Arizona but probably holds inelastic Georgia.

Arizona -- the fast-growing Mexican-American electorate might not be growing fast enough to flip the state D. But Donald Trump can offend enough Mormon sensibilities due to his personal life (no other potential Republican nominee does this) to weaken the Republican vote enough to create an opening for Hillary Clinton winning the state.

Georgia -- approval polls in recent years for Republican elected officials indicate the potential for some cracking of the GOP coalition in Georgia. 

Indiana, Missouri -- mentioned together because Democrats won Senate seats in 2012 despite Barack Obama losing the states by 10%. Republicans ran Senate candidates who made fools of themselves with extremist positions.

...To be daring I might add another state that has been reliably Republican for a long time: Kansas. Republicans have barely won some statewide elections in a wave year for Republicans.     

Good points!

Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri were three of five Republican-/John McCain- carried states in which white voters’ support weren’t enough to immediately deliver those states [to McCain]. The two other states were Montana and Texas.

The type of Democratic-winning election—meaning the margin nationwide—will have to be in high single digits for those three states. That is very doable.

[hopper]

GA-Yeah maybe if Trump is the nominee it would be close.

AZ-Will stay in the R column.

MO-Will stay in the R column.

[Virginiá]

Scott's win in 2014 was not encouraging, but Graham and Murphy legitimately were.

Neither of his wins were. Considering just how much of his own money he put into his campaigns, it makes me wonder how well the next Governor will do with less cash to spread around.

Interesting to note that from 2010-now, Hispanics have been moving pretty fast away from the Florida GOP. Scott won something like 50% in 2010, Obama won 60% in 2012, and then Scott only got 38% in 2014. Hispanics are projected to make up 20% -/+ of the Florida electorate in 2016, up from 14% in 2008. Given the dynamics of the race so far with GOPs <> Hispanics, the best I can see them doing is maintaining the current status quo.

Republicans better fix this demographic divide at least in Florida or they will continue to face steeper and steeper climbs to victory, and with the current EV configuration, they cannot afford to lose Florida.

[DS0816]

2012 was the year for the Democrats to make a serious run at GA and AZ.  Obama didn't and lost them by safe margins to the GOP.  The possibility to make plays for both of those states is still there, however.  2016 though (non-incumbent year) isn't likely to be it.

The biggest deal of the 2012 cycle was Obama holding FL for the Democrats.  That should have shaken up the GOP more than anything.  There was NO reason for Romney to lose FL.

Again, if the Republicans lose FL, they're pretty much done.

I knew President Obama would win re-election with Florida in his column. The state is a bellwether—since 1928—and it is a companion state in voting pattern to Ohio; typically, there is about a two-point spread in their carriage (which is commonly for the presidential winner).

The play for Arizona and Georgia, for 2012, wasn't feasible because of the unusual underperformance, nationwide, with the percentage margins. Had Obama received a 3.40 percentage-points shift in his, rather than Republican challenger Mitt Romney's, direction … the map would have been 374 Obama | 164 Romney. (Republican pickups, for Romney, with Indiana and Nebraska #02; a successful  countering of Democratic pickups, with re-electing Obama, with Arizona and Georgia.)

[sg0508]

2012 was the year for the Democrats to make a serious run at GA and AZ.  Obama didn't and lost them by safe margins to the GOP.  The possibility to make plays for both of those states is still there, however.  2016 though (non-incumbent year) isn't likely to be it.

The biggest deal of the 2012 cycle was Obama holding FL for the Democrats.  That should have shaken up the GOP more than anything.  There was NO reason for Romney to lose FL.

Again, if the Republicans lose FL, they're pretty much done.

I knew President Obama would win re-election with Florida in his column. The state is a bellwether—since 1928—and it is a companion state in voting pattern to Ohio; typically, there is about a two-point spread in their carriage (which is commonly for the presidential winner).

The play for Arizona and Georgia, for 2012, wasn't feasible because of the unusual underperformance, nationwide, with the percentage margins. Had Obama received a 3.40 percentage-points shift in his, rather than Republican challenger Mitt Romney's, direction … the map would have been 374 Obama | 164 Romney. (Republican pickups, for Romney, with Indiana and Nebraska #02; a successful  countering of Democratic pickups, with re-electing Obama, with Arizona and Georgia.)

Obama lost on average, 2-3 points in most states, but not in FL.  Florida was the final state called. The EC race was over by the time the state was called for Obama. The point is, even with FL, Romney would have lost. Without it, the GOP is in deep trouble.