Arm the Peshmerga Act of 2015 (Passed)

[Senator Cris]

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Sponsor: Senator Cris for the Secretary of State

[Associate Justice PiT]

     While I am typically rather dovish on foreign policy issues, I do think supporting the Kurds against ISIS is a very important project for us.

[Blair]

Would we have to talk to the Turkish government before passing this, as we're declaring that a large part of their land doesn't actually belong to them?

Fully support arming the kurds, and as I think I announced in a very old campaign I would like the Northeast to support them as much as possible

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

It is important to note the situation regarding the Middle East in general, and ISIS and the Kurds in particular, diverged significantly from real life events during Kalwejt's tenure as Game Moderator. To avoid redundancy and ensure the applicability of this act, I have compiled

A Report on the Status of the Middle East

The following is a summary of events pertaining to the actions of the Islamic State (ISIS) and its combatants during the past year, specifically during the term of Game Moderator Kalwejt.

The Situation in Iraq, the Status of the Kurds, and International Responses
In March of this year, the Senate passed and President Bore signed the Kurdish Solidarity Act of 2014. This Act had two main objectives: to provide military and medical aid to the Iraqi and Kurdish forces fighting against ISIS and to express support for greater Kurdish autonomy. Section 3 of the Act states that "The Senate recognizes the potential for more autonomy for the Kurds, and thus it encourages the Secretary of External Affairs to begin negotiations with the nations in the Middle East and the Caucasus with a sizable Kurdish minority (here recognized as Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia), the government of Iraqi Kurdistan and Kurdish political groups fully committed to democracy in the nations mentioned before, to discuss the issue of autonomy and self-determination and the potential for a comprehensive arrangement in the region." The Act also disavowed any measure that would compromise the security, economic stability, or territorial integrity of any "neighboring nation." The Republic of Turkey was reportedly "disturbed" by the Act, and Turkish officials were quoted by Izvestia (then the official publication of the Game Moderator) as expressing concern that the Act would create a "dangerous precedent" that could undermine the stability of Turkey.

In late February, Izvestia reported that the Kurdish-dominated central government of Iraq was pursuing an agreement with Baathist Sunni leaders, resulting in a military coalition between Kurdish and Sunni forces and the inclusion of Baathist leaders in the Iraqi government. Hours later, Iranian-backed Shias in the South declared the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iraq (IRI) (see Fig. 1). This left Iraq split between three warring factions: the Shias and their Iranian allies in the South, ISIS in the North, and Kurdish and Sunni forces loyal to the government in central Iraq. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Kuwait - which border the proclaimed Islamic Republic - expressed concerns over the growth of Iranian power in the region, as did the Kingdom of Jordan.

Fig. 1  Iraq as of February 2015. Brown indicates territory controlled by ISIS, red the Republic of Iraq, and green the Islamic Republic of Iraq (IRI)

On February 27, the Republic of Iraq accepted an offer of military assistance from the Kingdom of Jordan - an ally of the Republic of Atlasia in the fight against ISIS. According to Izvestia, Jordanian officials agreed to supply ground troops as well as other resources to combat ISIS in the North, and possibly offered to "discreetly" oppose the Iranian-backed IRI in the South. Following a successful offensive by Shia forces in mid-March, which brought the insurgents within 92 miles of Baghdad and nearly doubled the territory controlled by the IRI, Jordanian officials reportedly began considering increasing their efforts to contain the Islamic Republic. By March 18, the IRI's advance had been halted by forces loyal to the Republic of Iraq roughly 100 miles to the south of Baghdad. The following month, the Kingdom of Jordan signed yet another defense pact with the Republic of Iraq promising renewed assistance in their fight against ISIS (and potential indirect opposition to the IRI).

In early March, Izvestia reported that Turkish officials were growing impatient with the situation in Iraq and were considering intervening militarily with two main objectives: to drive ISIS from its stronghold in Northern Iraq and to dislodge the Kurdish government of the Republic of Iraq.

On May 9, officials from the Republic of Iraq and the Kingdom of Jordan announced the unification of their two states as the provisionally-named "Arab Confederation." King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein of Jordan assumed the presidency of the Confederation, with the [unnamed] Iraqi Prime Minister as his vice president. Game Moderator Kalwejt had promised to elaborate on the international reaction to the establishment of the Confederation, but resigned before he could make good on this commitment.

Changing Stance on Independence
According to a May 2 report by the Game Moderator's office, the Kurdish community has become divided over the question of independence as their influence in Iraq has increased.

Many influential elements prefers, in order to ensure security, to ally with certain non-Kurdish elements in governing the countries they are present, rather than seek to establish free Kurdistan, a move that would meet a bitter opposition from many countries in the region.

Attack on Atlasian Embassy
On April 2, a mortar attack on the Atlasian Embassy in Baghdad resulted in the death of three individuals, including Ambassador Dwight Lemuel Scheisskopf IV. Secretary of State Superique accordingly ordered the evacuation of the Baghdad Embassy until further notice.

Continued in the following post

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Continued from the previous post


International Implications
On February 28, the Game Moderator's Office released the following report on international reactions to the ongoing crisis in Iraq:

IRAN
Despite mutual efforts to decrease tentions in recent time, oil prices drop poses a very serious problem for Tehran, already dealing with a severe revenue problems. This is a wild card, given uncertain nature of Iran's involvement in the Iraqi crisis. We are not sure whether establishment of the Islamic Republic in Shia-dominated south was a bold move to secure more fields or Tehran was forced to action by Iraqi rebels. On short term, Iran is certainly contemplating increasing oil production to make up for lost funds, thereby making the worldwide situation even worse.

SAUDI ARABIA
In contrast to Iran, the Saudis are keeping their heads cool, as they wish to avoid futher destabilization, as well as damaging improving ties with Atlasia. The Saudis are a key player here: back in 2003, during the Atlasian invasion on Iraq, they promised (and ensured) that oil prices won't suffer and, due to having the largest reserved in the world and influence within the Gulf, they can probably be able to repeat the feat.

KUWAIT
Unlike inside of their big neighbour, the mood in the Kuwait City is close to a panic, as they are directly bordering a new hostile self-proclaimed state, which brings painful memories of the 1990 invasion from the north. In order to secure their position, Kuwaitis may be tempted to go overboard with increasing their production, which can only make the overall situation worse, as it did in 1990, as exceeding the OPEC-imposed quotas was one of the main reasons behind Saddam's attack.

A subsequent report released on May 2 said,

Iran
The rise of "Islamic Republic of Iraq" is still quite a mystery. However, it more and more seems that it was not an initiative of a present moderate government (nor the hardline, but nonetheless pragmatic, Supreme Leader himself), but a move by the radicals to force their hands, as it's politically impossible for the administration to just denounce the Shia rebels in southern Iraq.

Their situation is delicate, as they cannot appear weak in face of the showdown with the Saudis and Co., but they can't also follow the hard line in order not to antagonize Atlasia, as the improvement of relations is one of their key goals.

Saudi Arabia
After initial moves to reestablish closer relations with Atlasia, moderate elements seems to lose an internal debate, as Saudi Arabia is embarking on aggressive foreign policy, aiming at becoming an undisputed regional power and to contain what they perceive as „Iranian threat”.

Syria
The regime got an upper hand against the ISIS, but the process, like in Northern Iraq, is slow.

Yemen
Yemen had basically became a battleground, on which the Iranian-backed rebels are fighting against the Saudi-led intervention.

Oman
Perhaps due to it's status as a next-door neighbour (as well as the fact it's not a Sunni country), Oman keeps away from the Yemeni mess.

Historically a natural mediator between the Atlasia and Iran, Oman proposed to interact during the Iranian threat to increase their oil production together with Russia. The offer remained unanswered by Atlasia.

Gulf Countries
The Gulf Countries (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Emirates) are largely following the Saudi politics. Wealthy individual funding for the ISIS is a major concern.

Egypt
President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, largely bankrolled by the Saudis, is mostly occupied by the domestic affairs, following the Riyadh's lead on international stage, as most evident in Yemen. A number of Egyptians becomes increasingly angry at „abdicating Egypt's role in the region and submission to the Saudis”, although majority seems satisfied with a relative stability under the regime, especially following a troubled period of revolution and Muslim Brotherhood's rule.

Saudi Involvement
During the Administration of President Lumine Von Reuental, the Kindgom of Saudi Arabia made a formal commitment to cracking down on those among its citizens who were illegally funding ISIS. In March of 2015, Izvestia announced that this policy had resulted in severe financial pressure on ISIS, which had depended on the contribution of Saudi citizens to purchase much-needed military equipment.

Despite these successes, Saudi Arabia remains seemingly indifferent over the threat posed by ISIS. In April, Prof. Mark Horowitz of Georgetown University was quoted by Izvestia as speculating that "many are quite pleased to do very little about it, as it weakens Iraq and Syria. Many members of the ruling family are keen to let things go as 'usual' and focus on their proxy war with Iran, even on the expense of relations with Atlasia."

[Simfan34]

So Kurdistan hasn't declared independence?

[Classic Conservative]

So Kurdistan hasn't declared independence?

Please elaborate???

[Simfan34]

It appears that the Iraqi Kurds dominated the central government. Therefore there is no legitimate sovereign Kurdish state to recognize.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, I recall the stories, especially those from last year where the Iraqi gov't became Sunni and Kurd dominated as opposed to Shia.

I thank Truman for posting the relevant GM stories.

Clearly, if anything, or next move should be to try and strengthen the Iraqi central gov't and/or this confederation of Iraq and Jordan.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

I offer the following amendment:

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Basically, this amendment recognizes the events of the last year as they relate to the state of affairs in the former Republic of Iraq and adapts the provisions of the Secretary's proposal accordingly.

[Classic Conservative]

I am fine with this admendment, though I think it is silly that Jordan and Iraq joined together.

[Senator Cris]

Senators have 24 hours to object to Truman's amendment.

[Senator Cris]

The amendment has been adopted.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Are we ready for a final vote?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I support the amendment that has been passed. Really it is the only viable option at this point because it is the only force on the ground that is at least somewhat reasonable.

What is the level of practical assistance derived from $500 million?

[Senator Cris]

Motion for a final vote.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Motion for a final vote.

Second.

[Senator Cris]

A final vote is now open.
Please vote.

[DKrol]

Aye

[Senator Cris]

Aye

[Clark Kent]

AYE

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

AYE!

[Prince of Salem]

Aye

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AYE

[Senator Cris]

The act has enough votes to pass.
Senators have 24 hours to change/add their votes.