Does Ted Cruz have all the power?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:10:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Does Ted Cruz have all the power?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Does Ted Cruz have all the power?  (Read 3117 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 30, 2015, 01:58:52 AM »

The more I think about it, it seems like Cruz may end up being the most powerful Republican in the primaries. He is the likely Iowa caucus winner, the emergency fallback break-in-case-of-Trump option, and a potential Trump VP. At any point in the race, he can effectively crown Trump the nominee by dropping out and endorsing him (for a VP position probably). More importantly, a brokered convention situation likely involves Trump, Cruz, and Rubio (or Christie). Trump obviously wouldn't achieve a majority as preventing his nomination is the reason for the brokered convention, but Rubio winning would require cooperation from Cruz. The most likely option here seems to be Rubio (at the behest of the RNC) frees his delegates for Cruz and makes him the nominee. Whatever happens, Cruz is likely either the kingmaker or the ultimate fallback.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2015, 02:05:08 AM »
« Edited: December 30, 2015, 02:06:55 AM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2015, 03:00:00 AM »

But what happens if Rubio does win? Cruz has zero fallback

It's not very clear at the moment how a Rubio victory would happen.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2015, 03:06:17 AM »

But what happens if Rubio does win? Cruz has zero fallback

It's not very clear at the moment how a Rubio victory would happen.

Sure it is. Third place in Iowa(15%), second in New Hampshire(18%), and victory in South Carolina(27%) and Nevada(33%) gives him the ultimate momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,793
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2015, 03:55:56 AM »

Cruz is polling very well in SC. And Cruz has the March TX primaries. With Trump in race, it will be hard for Rubio
Logged
Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2015, 04:37:42 AM »

If there does end up being a three way split of the delegates and the establishment decides that it has to be anyone but Trump then Cruz will be the nominee even if he finishes 3rd.
If Cruz finishes 3rd Trump will offer him the VP. Rubio will offer him the VP. Cruz then says to Rubio, either back me for the nomination or I support Trump and become his VP. Rubio then has to accept to stop Trump becoming the nominee.
So a Cruz, Rubio ticket is the best the establishment can hope for from a brokered convention.
Logged
Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2015, 04:39:47 AM »

But there is the what if scenario. What if Rubio does emerge? Cruz has zero chance.

If Rubio wins a majority of delegates, then, of course, Cruz has nothing but that seems less likely than a Trump win, or a Cruz win or a three way split of the delegates.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2015, 01:43:37 PM »

If there does end up being a three way split of the delegates and the establishment decides that it has to be anyone but Trump then Cruz will be the nominee even if he finishes 3rd.
If Cruz finishes 3rd Trump will offer him the VP. Rubio will offer him the VP. Cruz then says to Rubio, either back me for the nomination or I support Trump and become his VP. Rubio then has to accept to stop Trump becoming the nominee.
So a Cruz, Rubio ticket is the best the establishment can hope for from a brokered convention.

In that case, the Establishment can disqualify Cruz on grounds of not being a natural born citizen and still have Rubio as the nominee.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2015, 02:17:36 PM »

If there does end up being a three way split of the delegates and the establishment decides that it has to be anyone but Trump then Cruz will be the nominee even if he finishes 3rd.
If Cruz finishes 3rd Trump will offer him the VP. Rubio will offer him the VP. Cruz then says to Rubio, either back me for the nomination or I support Trump and become his VP. Rubio then has to accept to stop Trump becoming the nominee.
So a Cruz, Rubio ticket is the best the establishment can hope for from a brokered convention.

In that case, the Establishment can disqualify Cruz on grounds of not being a natural born citizen and still have Rubio as the nominee.


That's literally the worst possible thing they could do.
Logged
pho
iheartpho
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 852
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -1.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2015, 02:36:59 PM »

Cruz doesn't have anything until he actually wins Iowa. There is an outside chance that Trump could win it, in which case it's all over for everybody.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2015, 03:16:55 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
Logged
pho
iheartpho
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 852
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -1.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2015, 03:49:19 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2015, 03:49:45 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018
By who a Ron Paul supporter or a moderate even though he has the support of Abott and the whole Republican Party of Texas including some moderates
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2015, 03:57:11 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.

lol. 2018 might be a little early, yeah, but give it four-six years and Cruz will be a "moderate" in the party.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2015, 04:13:24 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

Yeah, he'll win whatever primary he's in.
Logged
Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 07:08:38 PM »

Cruz doesn't have anything until he actually wins Iowa. There is an outside chance that Trump could win it, in which case it's all over for everybody.

Of course that is true. Not winning Iowa would be disastrous especially if he is built up as the favorite in the week prior to the vote.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,502
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2016, 07:55:03 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Cruz was only able to win in 2012 because of the liberty wing. Cruz is becoming increasingly more mainstream. That will not resonate with all Texans back home.

Cruz is just enough mainstream for the Establishment to work to secure his nomination in order to stop Trump.
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,343


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2016, 08:36:46 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Cruz was only able to win in 2012 because of the liberty wing. Cruz is becoming increasingly more mainstream. That will not resonate with all Texans back home.

That huge and powerful Liberty wing. Huh??
Logged
pho
iheartpho
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 852
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -1.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 02, 2016, 09:07:41 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Cruz was only able to win in 2012 because of the liberty wing. Cruz is becoming increasingly more mainstream. That will not resonate with all Texans back home.

Less libertarian =\= more mainstream. If anything, Cruz running as Trump-lite will only increase his popularity with the anti-establishment crowd in Texas.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 02, 2016, 09:21:40 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Cruz was only able to win in 2012 because of the liberty wing. Cruz is becoming increasingly more mainstream. That will not resonate with all Texans back home.

That huge and powerful Liberty wing. Huh??

There are TENS of them!!!
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,252
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 02, 2016, 10:16:06 PM »

If Cruz loses Iowa or loses overall, he has another 4 years to run again. He's young enough.
He will be primaried in 2018

By who? An establishment challenge would be a disaster in Texas and there is no room to Cruz's right.
Cruz was only able to win in 2012 because of the liberty wing. Cruz is becoming increasingly more mainstream. That will not resonate with all Texans back home.

That huge and powerful Liberty wing. Huh??

There are TENS of them!!!

Seriously. Dead Prez, PLEASE quit with the Paultard hackery. It's embarrassing.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,502
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 02, 2016, 11:15:07 PM »

The more I think about it, it seems like Cruz may end up being the most powerful Republican in the primaries. He is the likely Iowa caucus winner, the emergency fallback break-in-case-of-Trump option, and a potential Trump VP. At any point in the race, he can effectively crown Trump the nominee by dropping out and endorsing him (for a VP position probably). More importantly, a brokered convention situation likely involves Trump, Cruz, and Rubio (or Christie). Trump obviously wouldn't achieve a majority as preventing his nomination is the reason for the brokered convention, but Rubio winning would require cooperation from Cruz. The most likely option here seems to be Rubio (at the behest of the RNC) frees his delegates for Cruz and makes him the nominee. Whatever happens, Cruz is likely either the kingmaker or the ultimate fallback.

I've come to this conclusion, and, obviously, I'm not alone.  I think it's becoming a bit obvious that Cruz is angling to be in a position where the Establishment will have to turn to him to stop Trump, and he's doing an excellent job so far in moving in that direction.
Logged
couchpotato07
Rookie
**
Posts: 26
Chile
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2016, 01:36:08 PM »

Cruz is polling very well in SC. And Cruz has the March TX primaries. With Trump in race, it will be hard for Rubio


I think eventually, Trump will make a big mistake and will take a fall in the polls...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.