TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary)

[mds32]

This is ridiculous. The Green Party has as much shot of winning a state this year as the GOP candidate has of winning California in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

How far is this projection off? If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee he might lose UTAH.  Republicans will do well in about every other race, and any Republican other than Trump would win the state's six electoral votes easily as in 70-30 even if Hillary Clinton should win 55-45 nationally.

I saw a poll in which Donald Trump gets only 56% of the vote. Mormons must be having trouble with Donald Trump for his lifestyle and his involvement in very un-Mormon activities, namely gambling. Should the LDS hierarchy turn against him, he loses Utah. At this point I am not saying that the LDS hierarchy turns on him so that it can say "I told you so" about running for President while having values contrary to Mormonism.

....White people in California have little hostility to Mexican-Americans. There's much intermarriage between non-Hispanic whites and Mexican-Americans -- even by the well-educated, sophisticated white people. 

     

[StatesPoll]

California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

[Ljube]

California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

The problem is that even if the GOP won 47% of votes in California, they would not be able to find that extra 3% needed to bring them over the top. The floor for Democratic votes in California is too high.

[StatesPoll]

California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

The problem is that even if the GOP won 47% of votes in California, they would not be able to find that extra 3% needed to bring them over the top. The floor for Democratic votes in California is too high.

it's not neccesary to get 50% to win.
49% is enough to win. (thinking about 3rd candidates votes) even 48.5% is possible number to win.

[Ljube]

California Poll Emerson College April 2–8, 2015
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014
Hillary Clinton    53%    Jeb Bush    47%
Hillary Clinton    53%    Scott Walker    47%

You see guys? if GOP gain just +3% more, could win the california as this Poll.

and compare to April, Now, GOP becomes more popular than before.

GOP can takes california with 20~30% chance in 2016.

The problem is that even if the GOP won 47% of votes in California, they would not be able to find that extra 3% needed to bring them over the top. The floor for Democratic votes in California is too high.

it's not neccesary to get 50% to win.
49% is enough to win. (thinking about 3rd candidates votes) even 48.5% is possible number to win.

If the nominee is Trump, he won't even come close to that. The Republicans in California are quite effluent and educated. They don't like Trump (ask Torie).

[jeron]

OMG Hillary will win Texas!

Of course, Hillary will do much better among white voters than Obama and Latinos don't like Trump so they will vote for Hillary.

African-Americans: 95% of the vote= 12.4
Latinos: 66% of the vote= 17.8
Whites: 32% of the vote= 17.9
Others: 60% of the vote = 2.4
That makes for 50.5% of the vote. Hillary WILL WIN!!!!

[StatesPoll]

OMG Hillary will win Texas!

Of course, Hillary will do much better among white voters than Obama and Latinos don't like Trump so they will vote for Hillary.

African-Americans: 95% of the vote= 12.4
Latinos: 66% of the vote= 17.8
Whites: 32% of the vote= 17.9
Others: 60% of the vote = 2.4
That makes for 50.5% of the vote. Hillary WILL WIN!!!!

in your dream. even Mormon romney got 73% white votes from the texas in 2012
http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/

Consider about 3rd candidate. Democrat can get 25% or less white supports from the texas.
(I think in 2016 it gonna be drop more with immigration,terrorism issues. sth like to 20~22%)

And Texan latino are kinda conservative (similar like florida). Democrat can't get more than 60% latino supports in Texas.

And since mid term election 2014, GOP having 50:50 on the Asian.

[Ljube]

Hillary will do worse than Obama among all demographics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary will do worse than Obama among all demographics.

The female vote & Latino vote, the vote she needs to carry a state like California is what really matters. Having Kamelaa Harris instead of Boxer energies younger women.

[Ljube]

Hillary will do worse than Obama among all demographics.

The female vote & Latino vote, the vote she needs to carry a state like California is what really matters. Having Kamelaa Harris instead of Boxer energies younger women.

Definitely. Kamala is a great candidate.

[Virginiá]

in your dream.

Whoops! There is your bias again. If you can make wild, stupid fantasy predictions, so can we.