List of first post-Reconstruction southern Republicans

[Miles]

I put this together looking at each state in the old Confederacy and when they elected their first post-Reconstruction Republicans.

Governors:



Senators:



My rules:
- The Senators also had to be from after the 17th Amendment.
- They had to run and get elected as Republicans. For instance, in Alabama, Shelby didn't run as a Republican until 1998. Sessions was elected two years earlier.
- * Vitter won by more than 1.04% in 2004, but that was the amount that he cleared the >50% runoff threshold by.

[ElectionsGuy]

Way to go Tennessee for electing a Republican before the Civil Rights era.

[Asian Nazi]

Way to go Tennessee for electing a Republican before the Civil Rights era.

Honestly I think the growth of the suburban South and increased affluence among whites has much more to do with the shift than civil rights.  Tennessee had the advantage of having a geographically-based Republican floor which allowed the party to survive the post-Reconstruction era and take advantage decades earlier, like in Kentucky and to a lesser extent Arkansas.

[ElectionsGuy]

Way to go Tennessee for electing a Republican before the Civil Rights era.

Honestly I think the growth of the suburban South and increased affluence among whites has much more to do with the shift than civil rights.  Tennessee had the advantage of having a geographically-based Republican floor which allowed the party to survive the post-Reconstruction era and take advantage decades earlier, like in Kentucky and to a lesser extent Arkansas.

Yes, Tennessee always had the eastern part of the state as a floor so they consistently get 35-40% no matter what. Not many other states had something like this, but still good for them to challenge the typically one party state (condition) of the south.

To address the broader point:  increased migration, affluence, and suburbanization was important, but I think the southern strategy was ultimately what put the "nail in the coffin". Even though suburban areas were far and away the first to vote GOP in majorities, they couldn't have done it if rural whites voted 80% Dem instead of 60% Dem. The conservative shift of the GOP on law and order issues as well as the clever way they positioned themselves on civil rights (speaking out against the most extreme elements of the movement in the south while still going along with most of it nationally) was a clear part of it. They couldn't have done it otherwise.

[Joe Republic]

Jeremiah Denton?

[Miles]

^ there's always something that gets passed me. I'll change that.

[TDAS04]

Surprising that Arkansas managed to be one of the first to elect a GOP governor, especially one like Winthrop Rockefeller, considering that it was the second to last to elect a GOP senator, and that its legislature remained Democratic longer than the rest.  

[Kingpoleon]

Surprising that Arkansas managed to be one of the first to elect a GOP governor, especially one like Winthrop Rockefeller, considering that it was the second to last to elect a GOP senator, and that its legislature remained Democratic longer than the rest.  

He was elected Governor on an odd coalition of the 11% of Arkansans who considered themselves Republicans, a good number of anti-segregationists, independents, anti-Faubus Blue Dogs, and "reform" Democrats opposed to the Democratic machine. Only a big personality like a Rockeller could do it. Believe me when I say the death of Winthrop P. Rockefeller was the death of possibly our greatest statesman.

[Young Conservative]

Jeff Sessions is great. I went to Alabama for a Trump rally and he came and the crowd went WILD. If you think people from alabama like trump see them react to Jeff sessions

[Adam Griffin]

- * Vitter won by more than 1.04% in 2004, but that was the amount that he cleared the >50% runoff threshold by.

Wouldn't the same apply here for Georgia (0.87 for Mattingly)?

Also and if so, then in the gubernatorial election of Perdue, that number would be 6.36 (runoff threshold for GA was lowered in 1993 after Fowler's runoff loss to 45% before being raised back to 50% in 2005).

[rbt48]

^ there's always something that gets passed me. I'll change that.

Jeremiah Denton?

Very nice table - excellent research.
From Wikipedia, yes, Denton was elected in 1980 running against Jim Folsom, Jr.
Jeremiah Denton (R) – 650,363 (50.15%)
Jim Folsom, Jr. (D) – 610,175 (47.05%)

[DINGO Joe]

What about Daniel Russell's election as governor in NC in 1896?  Heck, Louisiana might have elected an R in 1896 if not for massive fraud.  Granted these were the days of R-Populism fusion tickets but Russell got elected even with another Populist on the ballot.  And I've always held to the theory that if the fusion ticket had won LA in 1896 (or legally permitted to win) then there never would have been a Huey Long.

[Kevinstat]

- * Vitter won by more than 1.04% in 2004, but that was the amount that he cleared the >50% runoff threshold by.

Wouldn't the same apply here for Georgia (0.87 for Mattingly)?

Also and if so, then in the gubernatorial election of Perdue, that number would be 6.36 (runoff threshold for GA was lowered in 1993 after Fowler's runoff loss to 45% before being raised back to 50% in 2005).

In the case of a 50% threshold, you'd also want to double the amount over 50%, so getting 51.04% if that's what Vitter got would be a 2.08% margin of victory, as the Vitter vote's margin over all other valid votes combined would have been 2.08% of the total votes.  Although maybe that was already factored in.  Did Vitter get around 51.0% or 51.1% (like 51.04%) or around 50.5% (like 50.52%) in 2004?

In the case of an n% threshold, the appropriate multiplier of the amount over n% would be 100/(100-n).  For a 25% threshold you'd want to multiply the amount over 25% by 4/3, as getting 28% could be thought of as a 28-24-24-24 victory or a margin of 4% (while only getting 3% over 25) and getting 31% (6% over 25%) could be thought of as a 31-23-23-23 win or an 8% margin of victory.  For a 20% threshold the multiplier would be 5/4 (think a 24-19-19-19-19 win).  So for 45%, the multiplier would be 1.8181... or 20/11.  Of course, with any of these thresholds, if the result after plugging in the multiplier was greater than the "normal" margin over the next highest vote-getter, than you would use that "normal" margin.  So with a 45% threshold, a 56%-30%-24% win would be a 20% margin (11% over 45% times 20/11), but a 56%-38%-6% win would be an 18% margin (56%-38%).

If Perdue got 51.36% in 2002 and there was a 45% threshold to avoid a runoff, than I'd put his margin at 11.56% (6.36% times 20/11) unless Gov. Barnes got over 39.80% (51.36%-11.56%), which I'm sure he did so it would just be the margin calculated the normal way.