If Trump loses Iowa, does he win or lose New Hampshire?

[A Perez]

I predict that be due to the fact that New Hampshire people are not very religious, Trump has a good chance of winning New Hampshire even if he loses Iowa. Please tell me your opinion.

[JMT]

I think Trump still wins NH after Cruz wins Iowa

[Mike Thick]

Assuming he loses to Cruz, it depends on a few things:

A. The size of the loss. If Cruz only narrowly defeats him, it probably won't damage him much. If it's a landslide, much more so. Additionally, if Cruz is up by a lot in the polls but Trump places closer than expected, it could help him.

B. How Trump reacts. Trump's campaign is largely built around the notion of him being a "winner," and his reaction to not winning was (in my opinion) best shown when he tried to write off the Monmouth poll that showed Cruz up by 10. However, the actual results of the caucus will be tougher to deal with: he can't just blame it on the Des Moines Register being out to get him or Monmouth being a terrible pollster. If Trump writes it off and heads to New Hampshire, it won't be great, but it won't be a yuge deal. However, if he throws a tantrum (which I think is the likely outcome) he stands a good chance of damaging his image (although at this point it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't).

C. Where Cruz, Christie, and Rubio are in NH in February. If Trump is leading by twenty points or whatever, he could probably still pull through. If he's neck-and-neck with Rubio or Christie (or even Cruz) then there's a fair chance that enough support would ditch him for Cruz that another candidate could take the win.

All in all, it really depends on the dynamics of the race in February. A lot can change in a month. However, if the current numbers hold I'd say that Trump's chances of winning NH with a loss get cut to less than 75% of what they would be if he won.

EDIT: I also think this is in the wrong board. I'm not sure, but I think it should be in 2016.

[wolfsblood07]

Lose!
I'm not expecting Trump to win any Republican primary or caucus. 

[Clark Kent]

Lose!
I'm not expecting Trump to win any Republican primary or caucus. 

[The Other Castro]

He wins New Hampshire if he wins Iowa, but he doesn't necessarily lose New Hampshire if he loses Iowa.

[Holmes]

Trump not winning any caucus is believable but not winning any primary? lol. Hopefully reality doesn't hit you guys too hard in the face in the coming months.

[wolfsblood07]

Trump not winning any caucus is believable but not winning any primary? lol. Hopefully reality doesn't hit you guys too hard in the face in the coming months.

Trump may benefit in states with open primaries, where there could be "Operation Chaos" shenanigans (indies and Dems crossing over to hijack the primary and vote for Trump).  But still, I don't see him winning much.

[Holmes]

Trump not winning any caucus is believable but not winning any primary? lol. Hopefully reality doesn't hit you guys too hard in the face in the coming months.

Trump may benefit in states with open primaries, where there could be "Operation Chaos" shenanigans (indies and Dems crossing over to hijack the primary and vote for Trump).  But still, I don't see him winning much.

If you think Trump will only win because of Dems and Indies crossing over to vote for him, then you don't understand  your own party's primary voters.

[TarHeelDem]

He wins New Hampshire if he wins Iowa, but he doesn't necessarily lose New Hampshire if he loses Iowa.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree it depends on the margin. Cruz is now expected to win IA, a small margin can be easily spun as the status quo, and Trump probably wins NH. However, a decent margin 10%+ will be seen as an under-performance by Trump, he probably doesn't react well and his supporters end up shell-shocked and probably start to fall away. The expectation now, based on polling, is that Trump will win NH easily, so even a close NH win will hurt him going into NV and especially SC.

[Why]

As tedbessell says above it depends on how he loses.

He he does compared to how he has polling will give us great insight into where things really stand.

If he loses in Iowa but does quite well, or even better, compared to the polling in the lead up to the caucas' and he is still comfortably leading the polling in New Hampshire then he would be expected still to win New Hampshire.

However if he significantly under performs the polls in Iowa then it would give reason to doubt whether his popularity in polling is going to be matched by popularity in voting. Of course the differences in structure between Iowa and New Hampshire might help him. The negative publicity that a bad loss would lead too might hurt him in New Hampshire as well.

If Cruz gains momentum out of Iowa then he might be helped in New Hampshire but not by very much given the difference in demographics and also from a lower starting point. Trump might be hurt but just hang on in a vote that is closely split between Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Christie and perhaps other candidates.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I doubt he loses it. It depends what happens in the next month but Iowa is really useless on the Republican side. It hasn't picked a nominee correctly since 2000.

[The Other Castro]

I doubt he loses it. It depends what happens in the next month but Iowa is really useless on the Republican side. It hasn't picked a nominee correctly since 2000.

Well, that just means it only failed two times in 2008 and 2012 (barely). Two in a row does not a pattern make.

[Penelope]

I think the only way he really has a chance to lose in New Hampshire because of a loss in Iowa is if Christie does much better than expected in the Iowa caucus. Cruz is going nowhere in NH and any post-IA momentum for him is only really going to affect the SC primary.

I doubt he loses it. It depends what happens in the next month but Iowa is really useless on the Republican side. It hasn't picked a nominee correctly since 2000.

Well, that just means it only failed two times in 2008 and 2012 (barely). Two in a row does not a pattern make.

It voted for Bush in 1980, and Dole in 1988. The only times Iowa has really picked the winner is in non-competitive primaries like 1992, and 2000. Dole also won it in 1996, but I'm not sure if you'd call 1996 a competitive primary year.

[Why]

I doubt he loses it. It depends what happens in the next month but Iowa is really useless on the Republican side. It hasn't picked a nominee correctly since 2000.

Well, that just means it only failed two times in 2008 and 2012 (barely). Two in a row does not a pattern make.

Also if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire it will quite possibly too two different opponents. Cruz in Iowa, Rubio or Christie in New Hampshire. Then he would probably lose South Carolina to Cruz and Nevada is really up in the air.
This scenario would knock Trump not down to 2nd but to 3rd.

However I still think Trump will go close if not win Iowa and win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.