I doubt he loses it. It depends what happens in the next month but Iowa is really useless on the Republican side. It hasn't picked a nominee correctly since 2000.
Well, that just means it only failed two times in 2008 and 2012 (barely). Two in a row does not a pattern make.
Also if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire it will quite possibly too two different opponents. Cruz in Iowa, Rubio or Christie in New Hampshire. Then he would probably lose South Carolina to Cruz and Nevada is really up in the air.
This scenario would knock Trump not down to 2nd but to 3rd.
However I still think Trump will go close if not win Iowa and win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.