Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,084
Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
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« on: January 01, 2016, 08:55:19 PM » |
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« edited: January 01, 2016, 09:00:56 PM by tedbessell »
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Assuming he loses to Cruz, it depends on a few things:
A. The size of the loss. If Cruz only narrowly defeats him, it probably won't damage him much. If it's a landslide, much more so. Additionally, if Cruz is up by a lot in the polls but Trump places closer than expected, it could help him.
B. How Trump reacts. Trump's campaign is largely built around the notion of him being a "winner," and his reaction to not winning was (in my opinion) best shown when he tried to write off the Monmouth poll that showed Cruz up by 10. However, the actual results of the caucus will be tougher to deal with: he can't just blame it on the Des Moines Register being out to get him or Monmouth being a terrible pollster. If Trump writes it off and heads to New Hampshire, it won't be great, but it won't be a yuge deal. However, if he throws a tantrum (which I think is the likely outcome) he stands a good chance of damaging his image (although at this point it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't).
C. Where Cruz, Christie, and Rubio are in NH in February. If Trump is leading by twenty points or whatever, he could probably still pull through. If he's neck-and-neck with Rubio or Christie (or even Cruz) then there's a fair chance that enough support would ditch him for Cruz that another candidate could take the win.
All in all, it really depends on the dynamics of the race in February. A lot can change in a month. However, if the current numbers hold I'd say that Trump's chances of winning NH with a loss get cut to less than 75% of what they would be if he won.
EDIT: I also think this is in the wrong board. I'm not sure, but I think it should be in 2016.
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