Is it possible for something to be against "natural law" but nevertheless is good public policy? Could SSM be against natural law, even if empirically based on the data it did no harm to anyone, or to society, while making gays happier and more productive citizens? Suppose the data showed that gays getting marriage, caused heterosexual marriages to become more successful? Is what the contents of natural law is, ever subject to change based on anything, ever? Is the invocation of natural law when it comes to public policy, anything more than merely a vehicle to legitimatize non data based decision making?
Sure, I suppose one might argue, that in the absence of data, the default position is to fall back on natural law. That would be unfortunate if the result, were that it interfered with trying something out on a limited, experimental basis to try to collect some data. It would effectively foreclose exploring options in a prudent manner that might make human society better, and the planet a better place in which to live.
Am I making any sense here?
From this post, I think you misunderstand what natural law is. Natural law is based on the idea that humans have natures (certain rights and virtues intrinsic to their humanity) and that morality is based on perfecting these virtues. Like most moral systems, data can be used to guide decision making. However, what varies from system to system is the questions one asks when looking at data and the response made from the data. Adjudicating a proposed idea according to natural law is different from consequentialism in that we care not only about the outcome but also the means and intentions for the process along the way.*
For example, if a study came out that said children who were spanked are less likely to use drugs when they grow up, both adherents of natural law and consequentialism would then conclude we should spank children. However, if instead a study came out saying (hypothetically) that children that were selectively bred and inserted into their surrogate mothers via IV fertilization are less likely to use drugs when they grow up, consequentialists may be ok with that approach, but those who hold natural law would say that the proposal is wrong, not because of the end outcome but because selective breeding of humans is against natural law.
I suppose one might say that natural law is making a lot of "extra" assumptions about what human virtue should look like. But when you try to decide what a "good" or "bad" outcome is you're already making assumptions about what human virtue should look like. Essentially, the disagreement if argued effectively, is not about what data says will happen if we do X and instead about what is good, be it an ends or a means.
It depends what you mean by "against natural law" and "good public policy". If by "good public policy" you mean lead to outcomes you deem favorable, then yes of course it can (see above). There's also another important scenario to consider and that's when the government isn't
actively doing anything against natural law, but is instead choosing not to act against a violation of natural law. Here there is much more latitude for prudence. While in some abstract utopian world it may be better if some violation of natural law is illegal, it does not follow that there is a good law that can actually be written in ours outlawing it, or that such a law wouldn't have other effects that cannot be ignored.
Yes. See above.
This something of a debate between different people who subscribe to natural law. I would argue the answer is no, however, since natural law is based on human nature and I don't think human nature changes over time. It is possible that we don't fully understand some aspect of it, though, and will come to understand it better later.
In theory it should be mostly neutral to the use of data in decision making. In practice, it's only mentioned when discussing gay marriage and most of the people using the argument don't understand what natural law even means.
*The version of natural law I describe here is in accordance with virtue ethics. There are somewhat different constructions that others have described for deontological ethical systems.