2008 election: the end of two party system

[Stan]

2000: Bush defeat Gore by a few of votes in Florida. The Green candidate Ralph Nader is third with more than 4% and Buchanan (Reform Party) 4th with 1,5%.
2001: In New York City Bloomberg is elected Mayor as Independent with endorsement of some Dems and GOP local politicians. Dems and GOP runs with own candidates.
2002: Good resuts for third candidates in Gubernatorial elections:
- Minnesota: Timothy Penny (Minnesota Independence) is third with 26%
- New York: Golisano (Independence) is third with 24%
- Oklahoma: Independent Gary Richardson gains 23%
- Vermont: Independent Cornelius Hogan gains 20%
- Wisconsin: Libertarian Ed Thompson gains 20%
- Maine: Jonhatan Carter (Greens) gains 18% of votes
- Richard Mahoney in Arizona is third with 16%
- Jill Stein (Green) gains 14% in Massachusetts
- The Green candidate Peter Camejo in California is third with 11%
- New Mexico: Green candidate David Bacon is third with 10%
- Nebraska: Paul Rosberg (Nebraska Party) gains 10%
- Oregon: Libertarian Tim Cox gains 9%
- Ted Pettiboine (Reform Party) in Kansas gains 7%
- Ohio: Independent candidate John Eastman gains 7%
In Senate Elections, good results too for third candidates:
- Massachusetts: Without a GOP candidate, Libertarian Michael E. Cloud gains 31%
- Mississippi: Without a Democratic candidate, Reform Shawn O'Hara gains 28%
- Kansas. Without a Democratic candidate, Libertarian Steven A. Rosile gains 28%
- Virginia: Without a Democratic candidate, Independent Nancy B. Spannus gains 19% and Independent Jacob B. Hernberger Jr. gains 18%
- Alaska: Jim Sikes (Greens) third with 18%
-Oklahoma: Third place for Independent James Germalic with 18%

2002 is the best performance of third parties in USA by the start of GOP-Democratic bipartitism era.

2004: Bush defeat Kerry 47-44. Nader is third with 5,5%, then Libertarian Badnarik gains 2%.

2006:
Gubernatorial elections:
- Maine: Independent Barbara Merrill wins with 38%
- Alaska: Independent Andrew Halcro wins with 37%
- Texas: Carole Keeton Strayhorn elected with 34%
- Minnesota: Independent Peter Hutchinson is second behind Dems with 29%
- Massachusetts: Christy Mihos (Independent) second behind Dems with 26%
- New York: Golisano, endorsed by Independence party and Liberals is second with 25%. Conservatives make a fusion with Constitution and gains 8%.
- Illinois: Green candidate Rich Withney is third with 24%
- California: Peter Camejo (Green) is third with 15%

Senate:
-Connecticut: Lieberman wins as Independent with 52%
-Vermont: Sanders runs as Independent against a Democratic candidate and wins with 47%
-Maine: Slavick (Independent) gains 20%
-Utah: Bradley (Constitution) is third with 18%
2007: crisis in the Democratic Party. Amy Klobuchar leaves and refound the “Democratic Farmer-Labour Party”.

Moreover, Greens, Reform, Constitution and Libertarians runs in almost every House districts. A lot of independents runs for House too.

2008:
Popularity of president Bush is very low: 37%.
-Republican: the nominee is Mike Huckabee . His running mate is Duncan Hunter.
-Democratic: John Edwards is the nominee. His running mate is Bill Richardson .
-Rudy Giuliani runs as independent. Most of governors and senators elected as Independent endorses him. Lieberman is nominated as His running mate. Reform Party endorses him, Independence Party of NY too.  Jesse Ventura and Independence Party of Minnesota endorses Giuliani. Andrew Cuomo endorses Giuliani too.
-Green Party decide to form a coalition of the leftist parties. Bernie Sanders is nominated candidate, Ralph Nader agrees to be His running mate. Peace and Freedom Party endorses Sanders. Former Democratic Rep Denis Kucinich endorses Sanders. Working Families party endorses Sanders.
-Libertarian party nominate Ron Paul as Presidential candidate and Gary Johnson as running mate.
-Consitution Party nominate Kansas GOP Governor Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo as running mate. Conservative Party of NY endorses Brownback.
-Democratic Farmer Labor Party, a little but territorially influent secession from Democratic Party, nominates Amy Klobuchar


Then, candidates are:
Dem: Edwards (NC)/ Richardson (NM)
GOP: Huckabee (AR)/ Hunter (CA)
Independent: Giuliani (NY)/ Lieberman (CT)
Greens: Sanders (VT) / Nader (CT)
Constitution: Brownback (KS) / Tancredo (CO)
Libertarian: Paul (TX) / Johnson (NM)
Democratic Farmer Labor: Klobuchar (MN)
Who wins? Discuss with maps!

Ps: sorry for my bad English…is first time that I write here a so long timeline.

[Kingpoleon]

265: Sen. John Edwards(D-NC)/Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean(D-VT) - 32.1%
265: Gov. Mike Huckabee(R-AR)/Fmr. Rep. Julius Watts(R-OK) -  30.3%
008: Mayor Rudy Giuliani(I-NY)/Gov. Angus King(I-ME) - 25.8%

Other: 11.7%

If Edwards sex scandal doesn't happen/come out, flip ME, NH, OH, IN, WI, IL, and MI to Edwards, along with 5% of Giuliani's vote and 7.5% of Huckabee's vote.

[defe07]

Could it be possible for a map of the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections, as well as the Governor and Senate? And maybe some numbers on how the 3rd parties did in the U.S. House elections?

[Stan]

You're right.

This is the 2000 elections map:

267 - Al Gore/Joe Liebermann 46,9
271 - George W. Bush/Dick Cheney 46,5
000 - Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke 4,3%
000 - Pat Buchanan/Ezola Foster 1,5%

This is the 2004 map:

George W. Bush/Dick Cheney 47,1
John Kerry/John Edwards 44,0
Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo 5,5
Michael Badnarik/Richard Campagna 2,2

[Stan]

2006 House Elections:

Democratic Party 42,3
Republican Party 34,2
Independent candidates 5,7
Green Party 5,5
Libertarian Party 5,1
Constitution Party 4,2
Reform Party 1,9
Others 1,1

[defe07]

Thanks for the maps! What would be the best states for the third parties in the Presidential elections? Did any third parties get any Congress seats? How about a Presidential '08 map?

[Stan]

Thanks for the maps! What would be the best states for the third parties in the Presidential elections? Did any third parties get any Congress seats? How about a Presidential '08 map?

In 2006 Independent candidates gains 1 seat in Maine (for the support of Angus King to an independent candidate), 2 in Minnesota (Minnesota Independent Party), 1 in NY (Independence Party of NY).
Conservative Party of NY wins in Staten Island.
Virgil Goode wins his seat in Virginia has a Constitution Party candidate.
Libertarian wins a seat in Arizona where Democratic Party didn't run.

In California Greens and Peace and Freedom are very high but not enough to defeat Democrats in every seat.
In Vermont - where Sanders havn't already endorsed Green - Leftist project - same of California.
Libertarian and Costitution are strong in Midwest.


Then:
Democratic 231
Republicans 198
Independent Party of MN 2
Independence Party of NY 1
Consitution Party 1
Libertarian 1
Independent 1

In 2008 elections:

- Democratic ticket, with Edwards as candidate, is stronger in the south compared to 2004, but has some problems: on first, GOP candidate is stronger then him in the south. On second, the party has lost support in traditional strongholds of NY and New England and in Minnesota too. But Edwards can have advantage on GOP by the low popularity of President Bush.
In Mid-West, the high support for Libertarian and Constitution make lose a lot of votes to GOP, but not so much to Democratic, than for Edwards can be an opportunity to win in some Mid-West states.

- GOP is strong in the South, but has two problems: the low popularity of Bush, the popularity lost in favour of Constitution and Libertarian in Midwest.

- Giuliani, as independent candidate, can be really strong in some states. In his home state New York, he has the full support of Independence Party and Liberal Party of NY. Moreover, some former Republicans like him supports him, and Democratic too like Andrew Cuomo (Giuliani endorsed Mario Cuomo in 1993). He has a large support of Italian-Americans too that can advantage - but not to guarantee him any certainty to win - him not only in NY, but in New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania too.
In NY, moreover, plays in favour of Giuliani the split of Democratic and GOP that losts their historical allied of Working Family (that endorsed the Green-Leftist coalition) and Conservative Party (that endorses Constitution).

Maine can be another stronghold of Giuliani, where Angus King - that in 2006 has elected a candidate that supported at House elections - has endorsed him. In Rhode Island Giuliani has full support of former Senator Lincoln Chafee, and of the large Italian-American population. Connecticut is the home state of his running mate Liebermann, and has a large Italian-American population too, then can be another state where He can performs very well.

In Minnesota Giuliani has the full support of Minnesota Independent Party - that won 2 seats in 2006 - and of former governor Jesse Ventura, and in his favour plays too the local split of Democratic Party.

- Sanders is supported by Greens, Peace and Freedom Party, Working Families and other leftist parties. In his homestate Vermont - where He won as independent in Senatorial elections - He can really wins. In NY and Connecticut, with support of Working Families, can performs really well, but is very hard to win. In California He has a strong support, but Democratic Party remains really strong. In cities like Portland or Seattle he has a large support, but difficulty this will enough to win in WA and OR.

- Paul is very strong in the Mid-West. In his favour plays that Constitution Party too is strong in Midwest, and both parties take their votes by the electorate of GOP. This can create some toss up situation (with Lib, Con, GOP, Dem and maybe Ind too) if this support will be high for both Libertarian and Constitution. In New Mexico, for example, Johnson as running mate of Paul can play an important role. In Arizona, Nevada and Montana Paul can be really high.

- Brownback is really strong in his homestate, Kansas. In Midwest states the situation is very similar to LibDem, and this area can be the real battleground to win this elections.

- Klobuchar is strong only in Minnesota. Maybe She can win? Maybe, but is hard. But She can determinate the loss of Dems in the state.


Sorry for a not good English, I've write this timeline so fast but I hope will be understandable for everybody.

[defe07]

Here's my map:

Red= Dem
Blue= Rep
Green= Indy
Yellow= Libertarian
Gray= Greens

[Stan]

193 - Edwards/Richardson        23,7
165 - Huckabee/Hunter           23,4
143 - Giuliani/Lieberman         22,7
015 - Brownback/Tancredo        8,9
013 - Paul/Johnson                   9,3
006 - Sanders/Nader                 9,2
000 - Klobuchar                        1,8
Others                                       1,0