Dutch referendum: No wins 63-37

[minionofmidas]

Germany's population is falling and Turkey's is rising.  Turkey will overtake Germany within less than 20 years.

Unless they all move here first.

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Uh - where's the difference?

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Look at the treaties with the new eastern European member states - which are rather poorer than Turkey btw - the EU's otherwise liberal internal migration rules won't take effect there for years and years. You can bet any admission of Turkey will have similar paragraphs.

[Jens]

Germany's population is falling and Turkey's is rising.  Turkey will overtake Germany within less than 20 years.

Unless they all move here first.

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Uh - where's the difference?

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Look at the treaties with the new eastern European member states - which are rather poorer than Turkey btw - the EU's otherwise liberal internal migration rules won't take effect there for years and years. You can bet any admission of Turkey will have similar paragraphs.

And don't forget that studies have showed that hordes of turks (kind of make you think of the Ottomans, but I guess that is the intention) will overwelm the EU. If the economic differences aren't enormous people ratter prefer to stay home. True, Turkey has some issues and som pretty backward areas, but is a highly developed country in world terms.
There will probably be some migration but not unskilled, more likely well educated Turks working where the pay is best.

[afleitch]

Immigration: To enter and settle in a country or region to which one is not native. Example. Turkey- non EU member. So Turks entering the EU currently would be classified as immigrants.

Migration: Takes place WITHIN nations or regions (the EU) which are native. So someone moving from Edinburgh to London would be a migrant (both cities being part of the UK) and someone moving from Paris to Madrid would also be a migrant by definition (as Paris is a city in France, and Madrid a city in Spain which are both part of the region the EU)

So...if Turkey joins the EU; Turks entering say Austria from Turkey would be migrants. Their status would have changed from immigrant to migrant upon joining the EU

By definition migrants and immigrants are not the same thing, a fact overlooked by people who try to trivialise the real issues some people have with the EU and issues around economic migration.

Secondly, there are barriers in place to stop the economic migration of people from the new member states but they are a on a country by country basis only. So for example Ireland has no quota on migration regarding Poland and other similar states, but France does.

Back to the Netherlands. The Dutch have been pursuing a tough immigration policy concerning non EU nationals for a few years now, and are worried that they will unable to stop Turks from entering the Netherlands if Turkey joins the EU, which would add to the social problems they already have due to past Muslim immigration.

Thirdly, there are legitimate concerns about Turkeys application for memembership. As I mentioned, having a populous Muslim country entering the EU, which only has a geographic toe-hold on Europe due to the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 worries many. Some believe it is a threat to Europe's Christian tradition. Others have concerns over Turkey's human rights issues in Kurdistan and concerning the Armenians. There is of course the Cyprus question and the rise of political Islam in Turkey and the state of Turkey's agrarian sector which is backward and would suck up funds from the already pressurised CAP.

So one word again: Turkey. That is the main issue for not all, but many with regards the European Constitution.

[they don't love you like i love you]

If I were European, I would staunchly oppose admitting Turkey to the EU for three reasons:

1-only about 3% of it is located in Europe.
2-It continues to back a seperatist republic in Cyprus and undermine that current member.
3-It still has a pretty lousy human rights record

[minionofmidas]

Immigration: To enter and settle in a country or region to which one is not native. Example. Turkey- non EU member. So Turks entering the EU currently would be classified as immigrants.

Migration: Takes place WITHIN nations or regions (the EU) which are native. So someone moving from Edinburgh to London would be a migrant (both cities being part of the UK) and someone moving from Paris to Madrid would also be a migrant by definition (as Paris is a city in France, and Madrid a city in Spain which are both part of the region the EU)

So...if Turkey joins the EU; Turks entering say Austria from Turkey would be migrants. Their status would have changed from immigrant to migrant upon joining the EU

By definition migrants and immigrants are not the same thing, a fact overlooked by people who try to trivialise the real issues some people have with the EU and issues around economic migration.

Not quite...
an immigrant is someone moving into a place
an emigrant is someone moving away from a place
a migrant is someone moving, full stop.
Obviously even under your definition, the distinction is purely technical.

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Interesting point. That had escaped me.

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Not to mention Caribbean immigration - in fact until five years ago or so, that was always the main focus of Dutch anti-immigration agitation. (Since the 70s. Before that, it was Christian Indonesian immigration.)
Problem was that nothing much could be done...seeing as people from the Dutch Antilles are Dutch citizens. They're trying to do something now though...creating a huge uproar in the Antilles.

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Well it had one before 1923 as well...but yeah, point taken...

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...although what does the Constitution have to do with the admission of Turkey? Oh, well, voters...

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...and these are by far the most legitimate concerns.
The Kurdish legal situation is so that admission right now is absolutely not an option. On the "Armenian" front, the issue is purely one of freedom of speech. On both counts, it is precisely the Ataturkian, "Westernizing" tradition that is the problem. Which is a little weird.
The rise of political Islam in Turkey occurred in the 70s, ie as soon as there were free elections. I suppose you're talking about the Islamic parties breakthrough into the mainstream - forming the government for a first and now a second time.
They have moderated a lot - and they have had strong civil rights, and even pro-European planks in their programs even before that. Most pro-European liberals voted AKP at the last elections. Of course, it's in part just a case of joint enemies, ie Ataturkist generals.
On the Cyprus question, I've always been of the opinion that the Turks were more sinned against than sinning - and the events of the last few years have proved me right. I think if they could, most European politicians would like to undo the admission of only part of Cyprus.
As to the agrarian sector - true. All true. Although the gulf is not as wide as it was when Spain, Portugal and Greece were admitted in the 80s.

[WMS]

The rise of political Islam in Turkey occurred in the 70s, ie as soon as there were free elections. I suppose you're talking about the Islamic parties breakthrough into the mainstream - forming the government for a first and now a second time.
They have moderated a lot - and they have had strong civil rights, and even pro-European planks in their programs even before that. Most pro-European liberals voted AKP at the last elections. Of course, it's in part just a case of joint enemies, ie Ataturkist generals.

Basically, in many respects Electionworld has it right - the AKP is now an 'Islam-Democratic' party, filling the same spot the Christian Democrats do. [there's also a 'Buddhist-Democratic' Party in Japan, the Kt...one of these days maybe we'll have Hindu-Democratic and Jewish-Democratic parties as well (I'm not sure Israel has a party that quite fits the definition...)]

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Pardon me if the prospect of pampered French farmers losing some of their CAP subsidies fails to fill me with anguish.

[minionofmidas]

The rise of political Islam in Turkey occurred in the 70s, ie as soon as there were free elections. I suppose you're talking about the Islamic parties breakthrough into the mainstream - forming the government for a first and now a second time.
They have moderated a lot - and they have had strong civil rights, and even pro-European planks in their programs even before that. Most pro-European liberals voted AKP at the last elections. Of course, it's in part just a case of joint enemies, ie Ataturkist generals.

Basically, in many respects Electionworld has it right - the AKP is now an 'Islam-Democratic' party, filling the same spot the Christian Democrats do. [there's also a 'Buddhist-Democratic' Party in Japan, the Kt...one of these days maybe we'll have Hindu-Democratic and Jewish-Democratic parties as well (I'm not sure Israel has a party that quite fits the definition...)]

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Pardon me if the prospect of pampered French farmers losing some of their CAP subsidies fails to fill me with anguish.

Let alone German ones.
I'm not a great fan of subsidies to the rich either. [/understatement]

[WMS]

The rise of political Islam in Turkey occurred in the 70s, ie as soon as there were free elections. I suppose you're talking about the Islamic parties breakthrough into the mainstream - forming the government for a first and now a second time.
They have moderated a lot - and they have had strong civil rights, and even pro-European planks in their programs even before that. Most pro-European liberals voted AKP at the last elections. Of course, it's in part just a case of joint enemies, ie Ataturkist generals.

Basically, in many respects Electionworld has it right - the AKP is now an 'Islam-Democratic' party, filling the same spot the Christian Democrats do. [there's also a 'Buddhist-Democratic' Party in Japan, the Kt...one of these days maybe we'll have Hindu-Democratic and Jewish-Democratic parties as well (I'm not sure Israel has a party that quite fits the definition...)]

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Pardon me if the prospect of pampered French farmers losing some of their CAP subsidies fails to fill me with anguish.

Let alone German ones.
I'm not a great fan of subsidies to the rich either. [/understatement]

Well, I hear much more about French farmers being the huge victors under the CAP, but I suppose the German farmers must get their share...

[Gustaf]

The French farmers do get most out of it. Considering that 50% of the EU budget is taken up by the CAP there's enough for everyonne...

[Јas]

CAP spending made up 46% of the EU budget in 2003. Theis figure has been falling in recent times, and the trend is likely to continue as restructuring taking into account the vast new agricultural lands of Eastern Europe is put in place.

In that year, the largest benefactors were:
France with a little over 9000 million euro.
Germany nearly 6000 million.
Italy about 5000 million.
Spain and UK about 4500 million.
Greece just under 3000 million.
Ireland and Netherlands 2000 million.
Denmark got under 1500 million.

[2952-0-0]

Bump. Polls open in just under 90 minutes.

[Gustaf]

Remember though that Germany is a big country - it's the biggest contributor as well and in net terms they lose out on EU-membership.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the vote was 50/50, would you say that the Dutch went Dutch?

[Angel of Death]

This just coming in. The Constitution has been rejected by a huge margin. Exit polls say:
Yes: 37%
No: 63%
Turnout: 62%

[Sam Spade]

This just coming in. The Constitution has been rejected by a huge margin. Exit polls say:
Yes: 37%
No: 63%
Turnout: 62%

Yep, I might as well say that the EU Constitution is DOA after these results today.

[ATFFL]

This just coming in. The Constitution has been rejected by a huge margin. Exit polls say:
Yes: 37%
No: 63%
Turnout: 62%

Yep, I might as well say that the EU Constitution is DOA after these results today.

Not quite, if 20 out of 25 nations support it they can get together and decide what to do about it.  The magic number is 6 nations rejecting it or not voting on it.  Right now we are at 2.  We can assume the British either will not vote or will reject.  3 more and then it is well and truly dead.

[Gustaf]

All countries must adopt it, I think. Regardless, they can't go ahead without France.

[minionofmidas]

In that year, the largest benefactors were:
France with a little over 9000 million euro.
Germany nearly 6000 million.
Italy about 5000 million.
Spain and UK about 4500 million.
Greece just under 3000 million.
Ireland and Netherlands 2000 million.
Denmark got under 1500 million.

Take into account that France has more farmers than Germany. More than twice as high a share of the population. While Britain's is even lower than Germany's. So, of the major countries, German and British farmers are taking home the highest per capita amounts.

[freek]

As I said, they're sort of scattered...absolutely can`t find a link right now to Netherlands results by township, sorry.
Only thing I find is by province...which does not to any extent give an idea of the SGP vote`s concentration.

Drenthe CU 2.9, SGP 0.3
Flevoland CU 3.6, SGP 2.1
Friesland CU 3.2, SGP 0.4
Gelderland CU 2.5, SGP 3.0
Groningen CU 4.4, SGP 0.3
Limburg CU 0.3, SGP 0.1
Noord-Brabant CU 0.6, SGP 0.4
Noord-Holland CU 1.0, SGP 0.2
Overijssel CU 4.4, SGP 2.2
Utrecht CU 3.1, SGP 2.0
Zeeland CU 2.9, SGP 7.7
Zuid-Holland CU 2.2, SGP 2.6

The bible belt goes from the whole province of Zeeland in the southwest (Reimerswaal municipality SGP 30% for example), and the rural areas of the south of South Holland province through Utrecht province and the west of Gelderland province  ("Betuwe" and "Veluwe" regions) to the west of Overijssel province (Rijssen-Holten and Staphorst municipalities for example). The most extreme one is Urk by the way, in Flevoland. 92% NO yesterday. Normally CDA, SGP and CU all score about 33% of the vote, and the PvdA and VVD sharing the 1% remaining. :-)

Yesterday massive NO-votes were seen in the bible belt, the socialist/communist area in the east of Groningen province and the area around Rotterdam, were the LPF party was huge in 2002. A majority of YES-votes (~50-55% YES) were seen only in the richest municipalities, where the VVD is strong.

[freek]

As I said, they're sort of scattered...absolutely can`t find a link right now to Netherlands results by township, sorry.

In Dutch:

Second Chamber 2003: http://www.nrc.nl/redactie/Doc/TK03/provincie.shtml