Hillary's limited appeal

[Thunderbird is the word]

One thing that I've observed is that in practice Hillary appeals to very few people. Obviously conservatives of all stripes hate her, most progressives and people on the left do as well where she's seen (correctly IMO) as one of the people most responsible for moving Democrats to the right. She doesn't seem to have much appeal to the working class (white or otherwise) and while her strength is purported to be highest among ethnic minorities I can't see there really be much love there either, especially with her cynical hispandering and the fact that she was a big supporter of broken windows policing in the 90s. The only group that really seems to like her are upper middle class liberal feminist types who just identify with her and they aren't really a significant demographic. I also think that the country in general is in an anti-establishment mood and there's no way that she would be doing as well in the Democratic primary as she is if they weren't trying deliberately to rig the process for her and done everything possible to prevent a competitive primary for the sake of some ed up seniority.

The only way that she wins is the toxicity of a Trump or Cruz.

[Sbane]

I agree with your assessment. I am concerned she might even lose against Trump or Cruz. Especially Trump if he can get big swings among the white working class in the north.

[Ebsy]

Stating that most progressives hate Hillary Clinton is so fantastically wrong that it is little surprise that your conclusion is equally as ridiculous. All polling shows that her approval ratings among liberals and self described progressives are sky high, and she's even broadly popular among Sanders supporters.

[Suburbia]

She is a center-left Democrat. I don't know if a socialist can win in today's America, unless if Trump or Cruz is the nominee. Her toughest GOP opponent is Rubio, Kasich, but they are not leading with the base of the G.O.P. right now. She could do well against Marco Rubio especially if his scandals from Florida arise.

[Thunderbird is the word]

She is a center-left Democrat. I don't know if a socialist can win in today's America, unless if Trump or Cruz is the nominee. Her toughest GOP opponent is Rubio, Kasich, but they are not leading with the base of the G.O.P. right now. She could do well against Marco Rubio especially if his scandals from Florida arise.

I think the country is in an anti-establishment mood though and that an outsider like Sanders who actually strikes people as genuine and talks about issues like income inequality would be more exciting then Hillary in spite of how he labels himself.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Stating that most progressives hate Hillary Clinton is so fantastically wrong that it is little surprise that your conclusion is equally as ridiculous. All polling shows that her approval ratings among liberals and self described progressives are sky high, and she's even broadly popular among Sanders supporters.

I think that's only because many have resigned themselves to the fact that she's going to be the nominee so they have to feign excitement. If there was actually a fair primary process that hadn't been rigged in Hillary's favor the picture might look different.

[Sumner 1868]

Wasn't she more popular among Hispanics than Obama during 2007-2008?

[The Other Castro]

There is not a single Republican candidate that is favored against Clinton. At best, Rubio or Christie would come fairly close to even odds, but Cruz or Trump would have no better than 35% odds to start. The idea that most Democrats or Progressives hate her, or that she is too far to the right to carry her party together, is absurd. If Clinton loses the general election, it will be due to external events like terrorist attacks or worsening economic conditions.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wasn't she more popular among Hispanics than Obama during 2007-2008?

Yep.

[henster]

Looking at the polling she's doing worse much worse with with independents and millennials than Obama and slightly worse with whites which is not good. I don't think progressives hate her, she's broadly liked but they are not certainly enthused by her. She is a pretty poor candidate for a base election since she is not particularly motivating or inspiring.

[wolfsblood07]

The Clintons came into national prominence believing that the voters would never support liberalism.  Their message was a centrist one crafted for the post-Reagan era: pro-business, pro-military and reigning in welfare.  All great things.
Now we are in an era in which everything traditional in America is under assault, and Hillary must pivot left.  We are left to wonder where her true heart is.  I suspect in her heart of hearts, she has nothing but scorn for the hard left but she will pander to it to win their votes.
Her appeal is limited because no one is sure how committed she is to Bernie Sanders-style socialism.  Her 2008 campaign against the Barack Obama, the left's dream candidate,  underscored her limited appeal.  The past Clinton scandals also loom large.

[Maxwell]

This kind of just seems like Atlas musing rather than anything based on the facts. If Hillary's appeal is limited, imagine how limited the appeal of other candidates are.

[Phony Moderate]

She has appeal, but it's a false kind. If Carly whatshername were the wife of a popular former GOP president and then been elected to the Senate on the basis of such marital ties then she would likely have a huge lead in the primary polling right now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing that I've observed is that in practice Hillary appeals to very few people. Obviously conservatives of all stripes hate her, most progressives and people on the left do as well where she's seen (correctly IMO) as one of the people most responsible for moving Democrats to the right. She doesn't seem to have much appeal to the working class (white or otherwise) and while her strength is purported to be highest among ethnic minorities I can't see there really be much love there either, especially with her cynical hispandering and the fact that she was a big supporter of broken windows policing in the 90s. The only group that really seems to like her are upper middle class liberal feminist types who just identify with her and they aren't really a significant demographic. I also think that the country in general is in an anti-establishment mood and there's no way that she would be doing as well in the Democratic primary as she is if they weren't trying deliberately to rig the process for her and done everything possible to prevent a competitive primary for the sake of some ed up seniority.

The only way that she wins is the toxicity of a Trump or Cruz.

Nonsense, the polling at the moment does NOT show a desire for change, unlike in 2008. Hillary has issues when it comes to cross-over appeal, yes but she is very strong among the broad left and the het-up leftists aren't big enough in raw numbers for it to make THAT much of a difference in the end.

Plus you're granting Hillary far more of a role in the Democratic Party's policy development than she actually had (forgetting how the (Bill) Clinton centrism aligns with the moderation seen among the mainstream centre-left parties in most Western Nations during the 1980s and 1990s) ...

Yet again, this is Hillary derangement syndrome, I get not liking Hillary I get supporting Sanders... but for the life of me, just because you don't get why people do support her doesn't make your conclusions facts.

[Blair]

Wasn't broken windows actually a valid theory when it was first handled? Beside the point,

Hillary hardly has the appeal that Obama had in 2008 but against someone like Bush she'd been seen as  alot better. It's also hard to actually assess what people think-social media is awful at getting an opinion, polling shows that she's seen as a cynical political hack (which is why here biggest threat is rubio: the fake chance candidate)

Don't be shocked at the ability of the silent democrat majority to vote for her

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe Clinton's appeal is "limited." Even if that is the case, it's clearly less limited than all the other people running for president at the moment. And in the end that's all that matters.

[Phony Moderate]

She's in the 'generic' tradition of American presidential candidates. There have been plenty of those - Romney, Kerry, the Gore of 2000, Dole, Bush the Elder, Dukakis etc. The other type of candidates are the charismatic/maverick/game changing types like Obama, McCain (yes), Dubya, Bill Clinton, Reagan, McGovern, Nixon, Goldwater, LBJ, JFK etc.

Though it could be argued that she was more in the latter category in 2008.

[couchpotato07]

She's in the 'generic' tradition of American presidential candidates. There have been plenty of those - Romney, Kerry, the Gore of 2000, Dole, Bush the Elder, Dukakis etc. The other type of candidates are the charismatic/maverick/game changing types like Obama, McCain (yes), Dubya, Bill Clinton, Reagan, McGovern, Nixon, Goldwater, LBJ, JFK etc.

Though it could be argued that she was more in the latter category in 2008.

You are totally right!

[Trapsy]

I think being the front runner has affected her. She is not as aggressive like in 08 maybe in the general when the stakes are higher, Its also really annoying how she is calculating a lot of things.

[Virginiá]

I think being the front runner has affected her. She is not as aggressive like in 08 maybe in the general when the stakes are higher, Its also really annoying how she is calculating a lot of things.

I liked this article about her calculating approach:

http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/12/saying_nice_things_about_hillary_clinton_has_become_a_subversive_act.html

Whether or not you like her, she has some very annoying problems of perception that are completely out of her control.

[Asian Nazi]

She destroys Sanders in literally every demographic except white millennial dudes, and even you guys will come around eventually.

[Trapsy]

I think being the front runner has affected her. She is not as aggressive like in 08 maybe in the general when the stakes are higher, Its also really annoying how she is calculating a lot of things.

I liked this article about her calculating approach:

http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/12/saying_nice_things_about_hillary_clinton_has_become_a_subversive_act.html

Whether or not you like her, she has some very annoying problems of perception that are completely out of her control.

I read that article a while back it is true. I think the disdain has to do much with anti-establishment. Also the media is also effective at diminishing someone's reputation.

[Reaganfan]

The Clintons came into national prominence believing that the voters would never support liberalism.  Their message was a centrist one crafted for the post-Reagan era: pro-business, pro-military and reigning in welfare.  All great things.
Now we are in an era in which everything traditional in America is under assault, and Hillary must pivot left.  We are left to wonder where her true heart is.  I suspect in her heart of hearts, she has nothing but scorn for the hard left but she will pander to it to win their votes.
Her appeal is limited because no one is sure how committed she is to Bernie Sanders-style socialism.  Her 2008 campaign against the Barack Obama, the left's dream candidate,  underscored her limited appeal.  The past Clinton scandals also loom large.

Excellent post.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hillary is not a likeable person.  There are lots of reasons for that, but she's not really likeable, and that's the way it is.  I suspect that a lot of feminists who are pushing her candidacy with that the first Madam President would be someone else.

That being said, the electorate is less elastic than it has been in the past.  She's been underestimated in the past.  I don't believe that, short of some kind of smoking gun in her e-mails that hasn't surfaced yet, any GOP candidate is going to enter the GE cycle with a structural advantage that gives them 270-plus EV leaning their way.  The hyper-partisanship of our age is what limits the appeal of ALL the candidates, and this hyper-partisanship is pretty much how it's going to be for the foreseeable future.  It seems like just yesterday when partisanship was dead and the big focus was on ticket-splitters.  Those days are gone, and folks need to deal with that.

[Ljube]

Hillary is not a likeable person.  There are lots of reasons for that, but she's not really likeable, and that's the way it is.  I suspect that a lot of feminists who are pushing her candidacy with that the first Madam President would be someone else.

My experience has taught me something: If someone is not likable, they normally lose.