Will there ever be another Perot?

[NeverAgain]

Will there ever be a third party that actually has a chance of winning or at least can cause a real spoiler event.

[Mike Thick]

We know it's possible: the RCP Average of Bush vs. Clinton vs. Trump showed that Trump would garner a whopping 22.8% of the vote. Webb has the potential to be a significant (if sub-Perot level) spoiler if he can get enough ballot access (especially if it's Trump vs. Clinton). Anyway, strong third-party candidates have generally come 8-12 years apart: Nader 2000, Perot 1992, Anderson 1980, Wallace 1968, "Unpledged Electors" in 1960, and so on. We're overdue, and if Webb goes nowhere, I would not be surprised if we saw a very strong third-party showing in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

John Anderson preceded Ross Perot, and garnered 6.61% of the vote in 1980. (If you want an idea of how old I am, I voted for him that year!)

In 1980, many people could not stomach Ronald Reagan (anti-intellectualism, confrontational foreign policy) but saw the incumbent President as a failure.  Add the Anderson vote of 1980 to the Reagan vote of 1980, and you get the smashing Reagan landslide of 1984. 

The situation can arise again -- troubled incumbent President seeking re-election and a challenger willing to offend many sensibilities on the Other Side.