Connecticut State could be the swing state in Election 2016.
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  Connecticut State could be the swing state in Election 2016.
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Author Topic: Connecticut State could be the swing state in Election 2016.  (Read 6159 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: January 04, 2016, 10:13:33 AM »

Connecticut State is normally considered as a blue state. But there is a possibility it could become a new swing state in 2016.

1. Latest Poll
October 7-11th 2015 Quinnipiac Poll
Hillary 44% | Carson 42% Hillary 47% | TRUMP 40%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Well Hillary takes the lead. But not that much big gaps as consider ‘Blue State '

2. let’s focus on racial demographic in Connecticut state(2014)
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09000.html

White 68.8%| Latino 15% | Asin 4.5% | Black 11.5% | American Indian 0.5% |

Thinking about racial vote turnout factor.

White’s vote turnout going to be a higher in 2016 (with immigration,terrorism factors). Hispanic low registered voter(because with there are many underage hispanics.) & low vote turn out. Asian are similar with Hispanic.

Actual influence on the racial vote share in Election Day, I’d predict

White 76.5% | Latino 8.5% | Asian 2.5% | Black 12% | American Indian 0.5%

Main supporter races of Democrats Latino and Black race, Not so many in Connecticut State compare to average of USA.

I going to predict % of the republican party and democratic party in Connecticut State on Presidential Election 2016 with calculation.

If Republican party capture Connecticut state in 2016. They need Total 49.5% (in 2012 minor party gathered slightly more than 1%. so (100-1)/2 = Require 49.5% to win.

3. I’d guess Republican Party need 57% White Support to win. (in 2012, it was 48%)
76.5%(actual influence of White voters in Connecticut) x 57% = 43.6%

12%(actual influence of Black voters) x 10% support = 1.2%

8.5%(actual influence of Hispanic voters) x 30% support = 2.55%

2.5%(actual influence of Asian voters) x 48% support = 1.2%

0.5%(actual influence of American Indian) x 50% support = 1%

(GOP got 48% support from Asian in midterm 2014 election. and currently most GOP candidates get similar support or ahead to hillary from Asian race)

Tota 49.55% (Which amount enough to win with considering about total votes from third candidates was 1%+@ in 2012)


So, the key point of Connecticut State. If GOP gets 57% support from the white,Then GOP win. If GOP gets 56% support from the white, then It can’t sure which party going to win. If GOP gets support from the white less than 56%, then democrat going to be win.

In Election 2012, GOP gathered 48% support from the white voters in Connecticut state. But, with Immigration,Terrorism issue, I’d predict it is going to be rise more than 48% for almost sure.

The point is how much amount it going to be?In my opinion raise from 48% white support to 57% in Connecticut state is not a ‘mission impossible’ to GOP party. That’s why I’d Classify Connecticut state as a ‘Could be swing state’.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2016, 10:23:19 AM »

Ok now you are just a troll
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2016, 10:24:21 AM »

Connecticut will probably become Republican or swing in the future, but 2016 is too early. I see a definite trend though. I hope its plausible in 2016, but seriously doubt it. Its only plausible in an Indiana 2008 scenario, where the GOP massively spends and visits while the Democrats don't take it seriously enough.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2016, 10:30:37 AM »

LOL. Trust me, I live here
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2016, 10:36:35 AM »

For CT to go Republican would mean structural change in the national GOP to where social issues are a minimal factor in who becomes the GOP Presidential nominee.  The Democratic shift in the Northeast since 1992 has been, in no small measure, a direct rebellion against the Religious Fundamentalist in the GOP that have a veto over its Presidential nominee and its platform.  The GOP in CT has always been a moderate-to-liberal party.  I can think of no elected Republicans in CT in my lifetime that were truly conservatives, with the possible exception of former Gov. Thomas Meskill.  The most conservative Republican nominated for office in CT in my lifetime was Jim Buckley, the 1980 GOP Senate nominee, and he lost in the Reagan landslide.  
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Zache
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2016, 10:52:28 AM »

See, this is what happens when you care too much about statistics, demographics, and trends without considering the culture of each individual state or the actual "people element".
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2016, 11:45:43 AM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2016, 11:47:47 AM »

As likely as Georgia the other way.

Basically the chance that your pet dog will sing the National Anthem at the Super Bowl.

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2016, 11:55:28 AM »

3. I’d guess Republican Party need 57% White Support to win. (in 2012, it was 48%)
76.5%(actual influence of White voters in Connecticut) x 57% = 43.6%

A 9% swing in the white vote? Look, I could see something like a 3% swing (nationally) occurring under certain (in my view unlikely) scenarios, and maybe it is a bit more elastic than that in a few states, but 9% is just wishful thinking.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2016, 12:17:16 PM »

Jesus christ
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2016, 12:20:58 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2016, 12:30:10 PM by Torie »

At this rate, maybe everything will be put in play. Well this "put in play" trend get all the way to DC? Stay tuned!

Well, to be fair, he didn't quite say that. He just said 57% of the white vote. Putting aside the merits of that as to whether that is the right number to swing the state based  on reasonable assumptions, in certain places, that would be quite the tectonic plate shift. Imagine the size of the swing, if 57% of the white voters in Manhattan voted Pub? And the Pubs would win Oregon and Washington going away. In fact, about all New England would be nailed down. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa would be near Pub landslides. So many possibilities, so little time. The Dems would still be safe in Hawaii, Maryland, DC, NY, and Illinois however.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2016, 04:59:17 PM »

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2016, 05:01:53 PM »

LOL no
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VPH
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« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2016, 05:05:16 PM »

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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2016, 05:13:32 PM »

LOL
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Crumpets
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2016, 05:14:02 PM »

Notice, it's not "a swing state" but "the swing state" - which I think means he/she sees it as the tipping point state. Here's what that map might look like:



Donald Trump/Linda McMahon 266 EV (actually not a half bad running mate for him, come to think of it)
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro 265 EV
Toss-up 7 EV
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2016, 05:18:27 PM »

If the election is neutral, like 2000 or 2004, alot of states like NJ, CT, MN are gonna be close, like six points or so, but Iowa, NH are the true tipping point races, and its good to identify the fools gold states from real ones, like Pennsylvania is a foolsgold state for the GOP.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2016, 05:28:34 PM »

Why Mr. Morden this troll isn't banned yet?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2016, 05:42:18 PM »

Am from CT, can confirm I'm very swingy.
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« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2016, 06:09:24 PM »

Any chance it's DC instead?
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2016, 06:14:18 PM »

Whites in Connecticut are not the kind of whites that vote Trump.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2016, 06:23:30 PM »


TRUMP will DOMINATE in DC!
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2016, 06:24:48 PM »

You're cherry-picking numbers. The average size of a Democrat's lead in that October Quinnipiac poll was 9.4%, which isn't swing-state level. Also, although the margins of the race have narrowed considerably since March, a Quinnipiac poll taken then showed that Clinton led all Republicans by no less than eighteen points. Obama carried the state 58-41 in 2012. Connecticut's white voters are very liberal, and they're not going to swing the same way voters in other areas will, so Trump isn't winning an additional nine percent of white voters.
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2016, 06:43:52 PM »

No, CT will not be a swing state but I would not surprised if it was a lot closer than 08/12 and looks more like Kerry's 2004 win there.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2016, 06:45:19 PM »

"Connecticut State"?  As opposed to Connecticut City or Connecticut, DC?
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