Connecticut State could be the swing state in Election 2016.

[StatesPoll]

Connecticut State is normally considered as a blue state. But there is a possibility it could become a new swing state in 2016.

1. Latest Poll
October 7-11th 2015 Quinnipiac Poll
Hillary 44% | Carson 42% Hillary 47% | TRUMP 40%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Well Hillary takes the lead. But not that much big gaps as consider ‘Blue State '

2. let’s focus on racial demographic in Connecticut state(2014)
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/09000.html

White 68.8%| Latino 15% | Asin 4.5% | Black 11.5% | American Indian 0.5% |

Thinking about racial vote turnout factor.

White’s vote turnout going to be a higher in 2016 (with immigration,terrorism factors). Hispanic low registered voter(because with there are many underage hispanics.) & low vote turn out. Asian are similar with Hispanic.

Actual influence on the racial vote share in Election Day, I’d predict

White 76.5% | Latino 8.5% | Asian 2.5% | Black 12% | American Indian 0.5%

Main supporter races of Democrats Latino and Black race, Not so many in Connecticut State compare to average of USA.

I going to predict % of the republican party and democratic party in Connecticut State on Presidential Election 2016 with calculation.

If Republican party capture Connecticut state in 2016. They need Total 49.5% (in 2012 minor party gathered slightly more than 1%. so (100-1)/2 = Require 49.5% to win.

3. I’d guess Republican Party need 57% White Support to win. (in 2012, it was 48%)
76.5%(actual influence of White voters in Connecticut) x 57% = 43.6%

12%(actual influence of Black voters) x 10% support = 1.2%

8.5%(actual influence of Hispanic voters) x 30% support = 2.55%

2.5%(actual influence of Asian voters) x 48% support = 1.2%

0.5%(actual influence of American Indian) x 50% support = 1%

(GOP got 48% support from Asian in midterm 2014 election. and currently most GOP candidates get similar support or ahead to hillary from Asian race)

Tota 49.55% (Which amount enough to win with considering about total votes from third candidates was 1%+@ in 2012)


So, the key point of Connecticut State. If GOP gets 57% support from the white,Then GOP win. If GOP gets 56% support from the white, then It can’t sure which party going to win. If GOP gets support from the white less than 56%, then democrat going to be win.

In Election 2012, GOP gathered 48% support from the white voters in Connecticut state. But, with Immigration,Terrorism issue, I’d predict it is going to be rise more than 48% for almost sure.

The point is how much amount it going to be?In my opinion raise from 48% white support to 57% in Connecticut state is not a ‘mission impossible’ to GOP party. That’s why I’d Classify Connecticut state as a ‘Could be swing state’.