Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

Lac-Beauchamp District by-election results:

Jean-François Leblanc: 689 (38%)
Caroline Desrochers: 578 (32%)
Liza Lauzon: 447 (25%)
Gabriel Céré: 107 (6%)

Turnout: 17%

Seat was vacated when Stéphane Lauzon was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals (in a neighouring riding I might add).

Leblanc's win is a bit of surprise, as he is a businessman with low name recognition, running as an independent. Desrochers was the candidate of Action Gatineau, the party of the mayor (and the only party in the city), which has a minority of council seats. Even with the loss, it's an improvement over the 26% they got in Lac-Beauchamp in 2003. Liza Lauzon, the third place candidate is the daughter of Stéphane Lauzon who is the outgoing councillor.

[RogueBeaver]

Chicoutimi by-election April 11. Safe PQ hold.

[MaxQue]

Chicoutimi by-election April 12. Safe PQ hold.

11, not 12.

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, two more municipal by-elections to be scheduled.

Borough mayor of Montréal-Nord, after the resignation of Gilles Deguire (Équipe Denis Coderre) after being charged for sexual assault of a minor.

Called for April 24th.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

By-election in Paquinville-Fatima called for May 15th.

[MaxQue]

Also,

March 20th: District 3 in Sainte-Brigitte-de-Laval and District 4 (Lake) in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures.

April 10th: Côte-Saint-Luc mayor and District 7 councillor.

April 17th: District 7 (Arthabaska West) in Victoriaville, District 4 in Carignan and District 4 (East Chandler) in Chandler.

April 24th: Montréal-Nord borough mayor, Saint-Hippolyte councillor (seat 4, at-large election).

[MaxQue]

Sainte-Brigitte-de-Laval is an exurb to the north-east of Quebec City. As usual with those, it's quickly growing.

Ward 3 (unofficial name: du Golf) covers a neighbourhood to the west of the town, separated from it by a golf course (obviously). As one can expect, the result is quite right-wing politics.

Provincially, the ward is in Liberal-held Montmorency, but it voted heavily for the CAQ. Boundaries of precincts don't fit at all, but it was roughly CAQ 54, PLQ 27, PQ 9, Conservative 5, QS 4.

Federally, it’s in Conservative Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier (but had an NDP incumbent before 2015), with approximate results for the ward of Con 53, Lib 19, NDP 15, BQ 12.

In 2013, most of the previous municipal team retired, but a few tried to continue and created the party Partenaires Sainte-Brigitte (Partners Ste-Brigitte). However, they only kept 1 of the 6 seats and the mayorship and the 5 other seats were won by Équipe Wanita (Team Wanita), led by the new mayor Wanita Daniele. In ward 3, Marie-Ève Racine (Wanita) won 252 to 133 (65-35) against Carl Boisvert (Partenaires).

Politics of the town in the last 2 years were mainly about the firing (by the city council) and the subsequent reinstatement by courts of 2 high-ranking municipal public servants. Let’s note the new mayoress was also a high-ranking public servent which was fired by them in 2012. Emotions were high and since then, councillors are routinely insulted by citizens during city council meetings.

Marie-Ève Racine resigned to return to her native region.

Candidates :
Jean-Philippe Mathieu (Équipe Wanita)
Carl Thomassin (Partenaires Ste-Brigitte), their defeated candidate in 2013 in ward 6.
Daniel Racine (Independent), no relation to Marie-Ève, opposed to current mayoress and high debt of the city.





Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures is an suburb to the west of Quebec City. As usual with those, it's quickly growing. It had been merged to Quebec City in 2002, but voted to demerge in 2004.

Ward 4 (Lake) covers, quite obviously, the area around St-Augustin Lake and the barely populated rural fringe between Quebec City overspill within St-Augustin city limits (which is one pole of the city) and St-Augustin proper (the other pole of the city)

Provincially, the ward is in Liberal-held Louis-Hébert (held by the wonderfully not understandable Sam Hamad). Boundaries of precincts don't fit at all, but it was roughly PLQ 47, CAQ 34, PQ 14, QS 3

Federally, it’s in also Conservative Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier (but had an NDP incumbent before 2015), with approximate results for the ward of Con 44, Lib 24, NDP 20, BQ 10.

In 2013 the previous municipal team (Horizon Saint-Augustin - Équipe Marcel Corriveau) was easily reelected, winning all seats. In ward 4, incumbent Marie-Julie Cossette (Horizon) won 502-392 (56-44) against independent Jean-Claude Desroches.

Politics of the town are perpetual fights with Quebec City about agglomeration taxes. It was all fine until long-time mayor Marcel Corriveau had to resign in March 2015 for health reasons. A opponent of the administration won the mayorship and since then, it’s a disaster. Council block all the projects of the mayor and mayor keeps calling on them to resign, saying than they are not legitimate anymore and should obey the will of the voters and pass his projects. Council passed various motions asking government to launch various probes into ethics and lack of respect to them. All rejected as being vexatious.

Marie-Julie Cossette resigned in December after public complaints she didn’t attend any meeting since July.

Candidates (let’s note opponents of the mayor are NOT running a candidate and that all 4 candidates are pro-mayor, anti-council):
Éric Dussault (finished last in last mayoral by-election)
Raynald Brulotte  (campaign director of the candidate which finished 2nd in the mayoral by-election)
René Dequen (former general in the French Army)
Chantal Bazin (former municipal worker)

[MaxQue]

There needs to be a by-election for mayor of Côte Saint-Luc (Anthony Housefather was elected MP Mont-Royal) but I have not found a date.

No by-election, as Mitchell Brownstein (counncillor for the 7th ward since 1990 and immigration lawyer) was the only candidate.

There will be a by-election on April 10th to replace him as councillor, as there is 4 candidates for that seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Calgary-Greenway: Progs lead 31/24/22.

[lilTommy]

Conservative Former CHCH TV reporter and on-air personality Donna Skelly wont ward 7 by-election due to a split in the left-progressive vote.
John-Paul Danko, was a close second with 1,875. And notably, Uzma Qureshi, who former councillor Scott Duvall and other NDPers aggressively endorsed, came third with 1,521 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/donna-skelly-wins-ward-7-byelection-to-be-newest-city-councillor-1.3501575

just how bad this is going to be "I'm not going to just take the popular side of things," she said. "If it offends people or if it ruffles some feathers, so be it. I think that's what people want in a city councillor." - very Trump and because she already doesn't care about the poor "... Skelly said social housing won't be a priority for her, and Ward 7 already has all it can manage."

[trebor204]

Former Toronto Mayor and current city councilor, Rob Ford lost his battle with cancer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Toronto Mayor and current city councilor, Rob Ford lost his battle with cancer.

Toronto only has by-elections for school board, don't you know. Because school board by-election are sooo much more important and worth the $$$

[DL]

Conservative Former CHCH TV reporter and on-air personality Donna Skelly wont ward 7 by-election due to a split in the left-progressive vote.
John-Paul Danko, was a close second with 1,875. And notably, Uzma Qureshi, who former councillor Scott Duvall and other NDPers aggressively endorsed, came third with 1,521 votes.

I'm not sure about there being any "split" - i looked at John Paul Danko's website and it went on about him bringing a business perspective and not being tied to any unions or political parties....whihc is usually code for a small "c" conservative in municipal politics

[DL]

Toronto only has by-elections for school board, don't you know.

That is not true. Toronto has had several byelections to fill vacancies on city council. The rule is that if the vacancy occurs in the first half of the municipal term, there is a byelection. If its in the second half, its up to council whether to have a byelection or appoint a replacement for the rest of the term - we are currently less than a year and a half into this four year term - so there will be a byelection to replace Ford.

[emcee0]

In other news, Liberal MPP Bas Balkisoon from Scarborough Rouge Park has abruptly resigned his seat. Premier Wynne has 6 months to call a by-election to replace him.

http://www.durhamregion.com/news-story/6401405-liberal-mpp-bas-balkissoon-resigns-his-seat/

[DL]

This could be a very interesting byelection, the NDP was a strong second in Rouge River and their two-time candidate Neethan Shan was just elected to the school board in a municipal byelection...I wonder what recently defeated NDP federal MP Rathika is up to. On the other hand, if Patrick Brown's "outreach" to minorities is bearing any fruit a PC win here would be evidence of that.

[lilTommy]

This could be a very interesting byelection, the NDP was a strong second in Rouge River and their two-time candidate Neethan Shan was just elected to the school board in a municipal byelection...I wonder what recently defeated NDP federal MP Rathika is up to. On the other hand, if Patrick Brown's "outreach" to minorities is bearing any fruit a PC win here would be evidence of that.

Interesting, Normally I'd say Shan would run, since he's been gunning for an elected position in this area since 2010 (provincial, then Toronto City Council now on TDSB, probably kicking himself for not waiting a few months but hindsight eh) BUT Rathika could be a very good candidate for the ONDP if the ONDP is able to attract her to run. Rathika would have name and experience cred; but she dropped to third in 2015; last provincial the NDP took 31% vs 38 for the OLP so they will definitely try for Scarborough-Rouge River

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto only has by-elections for school board, don't you know.

That is not true. Toronto has had several byelections to fill vacancies on city council. The rule is that if the vacancy occurs in the first half of the municipal term, there is a byelection. If its in the second half, its up to council whether to have a byelection or appoint a replacement for the rest of the term - we are currently less than a year and a half into this four year term - so there will be a byelection to replace Ford.

Ahh, I hadn't known that. I just remember the fight over it last time.

[Njall]

Well, Calgary-Greenway definitely turned out to be a close race, but the PCs pulled it off in the end.  It's more than a little embarrassing that the NDP candidate ended up finishing in 4th place, especially since everyone has (at least before this) written off the Alberta Liberals as essentially being irrelevant.

The vast majority of Liberal support came from the community of Taradale, which is in Darshan Kang's federal riding of Calgary Skyview.  The Liberal candidate received 41.6% in Taradale (whereas he received between 8% and 18% in all other areas of the riding), and his support seemed to come from all of the other parties.


Unofficial results:

Prab Gill (PC): 27.7% (-15.3)
Devinder Toor (WRP): 23.7% (+2.9)
Khalil Karbani (LIB): 22.6% (+22.6)
Roop Rai (NDP): 20.2% (-16.0)
Thana Boonlert (GRN): 2.0% (+2.0)
Said Abdulbaki (IND): 1.8% (+1.8 )
Larry Heather (IND): 1.3% (+1.3)
Sukhi Rai (IND): 0.7% (+0.7)

[RogueBeaver]

Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

[lilTommy]

Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

Hillyer was only 41 (sounds like it was a heart attack); Rob Ford was also young at 46. Both were relatively unexpected (Hillyer for sure, that's rather shocking)

[Hatman 🍁]

Obvious tory hold. Wonder how well the Liberals can do in a by-election though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Greenway results by neighbourhood in recent elections:

(Neighbourhoods from south to north; maybe Njall can talk about their demos?)

Applewood Park
2015 Prov. NDP 43.3%; PC 34.1%; WRP 22.6%
2015 Fed. Cons 55.1%; Lib 31.8%; NDP 7.5%; Oth 5.6%
2016 By-e: PC: 34.4%; WRP: 28.2%; NDP 16.6%; Lib 7.8%; Oth 11.8%

Abbeydale
2015 Prov. NDP 47.0%; PC 27.0%; WRP 26.9%
2015 Fed. Cons 53.2%; Lib 33.5%; NDP 8.3%; Oth 5.1%
2016 By-e: WRP: 33.5%; PC: 30.7%; NDP 15.6%; Lib 8.3%; Oth 12.0%

Monterey Park
2015 Prov. PC 41.1%; NDP 38.2%; WRP 20.7%
2015 Fed. Lib 46.1%; Cons 43.6%; NDP 5.7%; Oth 4.5%
2016 By-e: PC: 33.6%; WRP: 23.6%; NDP 18.1%; Lib 16.2%; Oth 8.7%

Coral Springs
2015 Prov. PC 45.8%; NDP 35.5%; WRP 18.7%
2015 Fed. Lib 61.7%; Cons 32.4%; NDP 3.3%; Oth 2.6%
2016 By-e: PC: 30.0%; NDP 25.1%; WRP: 23.0%;  Lib 17.8%; Oth 4.2%

Taradale
2015 Prov. NDP 42.1%;  PC 35.1%; WRP 22.9%
2015 Fed. Lib 56.6.1%; Cons 29.4%; NDP 8.5%; Oth 5.6%
2016 By-e: Lib 41.6%; NDP 20.7%; PC: 19.5%; WRP: 15.9%; Oth 2.5%

[adma]

Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

Hillyer was only 41 (sounds like it was a heart attack); Rob Ford was also young at 46. Both were relatively unexpected (Hillyer for sure, that's rather shocking)

And both had a bit of a "worst politician ever" rep (remember Hillyer's "invisible candidacy" in 2011?)

[Njall]

(Neighbourhoods from south to north; maybe Njall can talk about their demos?)

I pulled some quick demographic stats for the neighbourhoods.  The population numbers are from the 2015 civic census.  All other data is from the 2011 federal census and NHS.  In general, the southern neighbourhoods are less well-off and less diverse compared to the northern ones.  All of them are more diverse and more religious than the city at-large.  The southern neighbourhoods also have a much more pronounced Vietnamese presence, while the northern neighbourhoods are more predominantly of Indian/South Asian extraction.

APPLEWOOD PARK
Population: 6,863
Median pre-tax household income: $62,669
Per-cent Immigrant: 44%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• White: 32.3%
• Southeast Asian: 22.3%
• Filipino: 14.3%
• Black: 6.5%
• South Asian: 6.2%

First Language at Home:

• English: 52%
• Non-official Language: 37% (of that, majority is Vietnamese or Tagalog)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 75%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 62%
• Buddhist: 21%
• Muslim: 10%

ABBEYDALE
Population: 6,167
Median pre-tax household income: $67,481
Per-cent Immigrant: 34%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• White: 54.4%
• Southeast Asian: 9.7%
• Black: 7.4%
• Filipino: 6.6%
• South Asian: 6.6%
• Aboriginal: 5.6%

First Language at Home:

• English: 75%
• Non-official Language: 19%
• Multiple: 5%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 71%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 78%
• Muslim: 12%
• Buddhist: 7%

MONTEREY PARK
Population: 10,835
Median pre-tax household income: $78,151
Per-cent Immigrant: 52%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 28.0%
• White: 26.4%
• Southeast Asian: 11.5%
• Chinese: 11.2%
• Filipino: 10.0%

First Language at Home:

• English: 48%
• Non-official Language: 40% (of that, about one-third is Punjabi and one-fifth is Vietnamese)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 83%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 48%
• Sikh: 20%
• Buddhist: 14%

CORAL SPRINGS
Population: 5,853
Median pre-tax household income: $95,536
Per-cent Immigrant: 52%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 45.6%
• White: 15.1%
• Filipino: 11.9%
• Southeast Asian: 7.7%
• Chinese: 7.3%

First Language at Home:

• English: 46%
• Non-official Language: 40% (of which about half is Punjabi)
• Multiple: 14%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 91%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 37%
• Sikh: 37%
• Muslim: 17%

TARADALE
Population: 19,223
Median pre-tax household income: $77,137
Per-cent Immigrant: 55%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 49.5%
• White: 19.5%
• Filipino: 11.4%

First Language at Home:

• English: 39%
• Non-official Language: 49% (of which about half is Punjabi)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 90%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 38%
• Muslim: 28%
• Sikh: 26%

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks Njall.

Looks like South Asians are more likely to vote Liberal. Having no Liberal on the ballot last year is probably why there was a lower turnout in that election compared to 2011.

Looks like the NDP did better among lower income people in 2015, but this evaporated in the by-election. The NDP dropped 32 points in Abbeydale!

Abbeydale, the Whitest neighbourhood was the best for Wildrose in both elections. Probably was a large swing from the NDP there.

Coral Springs, being the wealthiest neighbourhood was the strongest neighbourhood for the PCs last year, but in the by-election it was the poorest neighbourhood that gave the PCs the best result. Weird!