Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[DC Al Fine]

Beautiful result. Must confirm that the NDP must be dead outside Metro Halifax, though.

True. Incumbency is a big deal in the rural Maritimes. There are a lot of rural seats where an NDP incumbent got 30-35% in 2013 that they won't come anywhere close to matching next year.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the swings

NDP: 51.0% (+7.0%)
Liberal: 33.6% (-6.8%)
PC: 12.1% (+1.3%)
Green: 3.3% (-1.5%)
Turnout: 32.5%

Liberal swing to NDP: 6.9%

[Hatman 🍁]

We do have some polls from Scarborough-Rouge River:

Mainstreet:
PC: 35
Lib: 30
NDP 15

Forum Research:
PC: 36
Lib: 36
NDP: 23

As I said though, the riding is impossible to poll. I remember us having lots of trouble polling in Scarborough North (its federal counterpart) in the federal election... the NDP #s were deflated.

[RogueBeaver]

Was the Forum taken later than Mainstreet? Just curious.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/tight-race-in-scarborough-rouge-river/

Apparently the poll was weighted by ethnicity and also was conducted in Tamil, Cantonese and Mandarin, so we'll see how accurate they were.

Forum hasn't published their numbers, but they appear here: http://www.cp24.com/news/tory-and-liberal-candidates-in-close-race-in-scarborough-rouge-river-1.3052118

I doubt Forum weighted by ethnicity, since their riding polls have been awful in the past. Still though, I suspect they are somehow more accurate.

[adma]

I kind of figured that "solid third" might be the NDP reality this time--whatever past provincial outcomes, the wounds from the 2015 federal disaster are a bit much to fix in a seat like this...

[toaster]

I believe Neethan is the only candidate who lives in the riding, so that may help him.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC on federal Ottawa-Vanier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, so Fleury's eyes are on the federal seat.

Exciting. If he runs/wins then residents in his ward will get a third by-election to vote in, in a span of probably 12 months.

[King of Kensington]

I believe Neethan is the only candidate who lives in the riding, so that may help him.

I don't think people really care about riding boundaries much.

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe Neethan is the only candidate who lives in the riding, so that may help him.

I don't think people really care about riding boundaries much.

Especially in Toronto.

[136or142]

Ahh, so Fleury's eyes are on the federal seat.

Exciting. If he runs/wins then residents in his ward will get a third by-election to vote in, in a span of probably 12 months.

Is he any relation to the hockey player Theo Fleury?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, so Fleury's eyes are on the federal seat.

Exciting. If he runs/wins then residents in his ward will get a third by-election to vote in, in a span of probably 12 months.

Is he any relation to the hockey player Theo Fleury?

It is a very common French Canadian name.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of today's race: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/09/scarborough-rouge-river-by-election.html

[King of Kensington]

Voting at one polling station has been extended to 9:30. 

[emcee0]

First three polls
OLP Piragal Thiru 30 votes
NDP Neethan Shan 29 votes
OPC Raymond Cho 21 votes
Very tight race so far!

[emcee0]

PC's now ahead by 46 votes.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

PC up by 120 votes with 16/234 polls reporting

[Pragmatic Conservative]

PC 1504
Liberals 1149
NDP 1005

34/234 polls reported

[Hatman 🍁]

Since we don't know where they're coming from, it's too early to call it. But it does look like the NDP won't win.

[toaster]

Since we don't know where they're coming from, it's too early to call it. But it does look like the NDP won't win.

If these polls are coming from the west end of the riding, nothing from these results are surprising, or indicate that the NDP won't be competitive.

[trebor204]

John Turmel losing strikes continues. Now has lost 88 straight elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

[Hatman 🍁]

Neethan Shan is trying to catch up. This is his 10th election, though he has actually won 2 of them. Probably won more votes combined than Turmel too.

[trebor204]

PCs are up by 1,096 (38.7%, Lib 30.1%) 104/234 Polls

[Pragmatic Conservative]

PC 4657
Liberals 3653
NDP 3220

99/234 polls reported