Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[lilTommy]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

[Hatman 🍁]

oh wow, those GTA numbers...

[lilTommy]

oh wow, those GTA numbers...

No kidding; just for comparison sake; the 2014 election 905 region vote was:

OLP 40.7% (-17 vs poll), PC 31.7%(+16), NDP 21.7%(+6)

[toaster]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

The 416 looking like an even 3 way race.  Much of that PC 31% is likely concentrated in Etobicoke and North York.

[lilTommy]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

The 416 looking like an even 3 way race.  Much of that PC 31% is likely concentrated in Etobicoke and North York.

Agreed, with much of the NDP vote concentrated in the old city of Toronto. If the Liberal vote sticks to the stereotype "a inch deep and a mile wide" It wouldn't take much for the NDP or PCs to win seats; a similar result to 2011 federal election.

[RogueBeaver]

Niagara debate was pretty rowdy.

[trebor204]

If anybody really cares.

School Board By-Election was held in Winnipeg Last Saturday.
Results:
Arlene REID  252 
Alon WEINBERG 250
Jane PAGUIO 173
Marty GREEN 25
Total Votes = 701 out of 13,724 (Turnout 5.11%)
Cost of By-election around $100,000. Around $7 voters (If all voters voted)
Cost of each actual vote: $142.

2nd Place candidate thinks since he lost by 2 votes, that the winner should share the seat with him. He suggested that he would share the seat had he won by 2 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

lolz!

[King of Kensington]

Mike Thomas holds hard right views on policing and was a member of the PCs less than a year ago.

Sounds like a real catch for the NDP!

[RogueBeaver]

Niagara West-Glanbrook: Star on Oosterhoff's campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results from Sunday's by-elections in New Brunswick

Miramichi: Following the death of mayor Gerry Cormier. Lordon was previously the acting mayor.
Adam Lordon: 4216 (58%)
Larry Lynch: 1961 (27%)
Peggy M. McLean: 1064 (15%)

Turnout: 52%

Moncton, Ward 4: Following the death of René "Pepsi" Landry, a former PC MLA. A recount has been requested because of how close the race is.
Susan F. Edgett: 1080 (41%)
Paul Richard: 1060 (40%)
Roy MacMullin: 418 (16%)
Michael Campbell: 68 (3%)

Turnout: 21%

Bonus coverage!

There was an amalgamation plebiscite in the Haut-Madawaska region. Voters approved amalgamation 493-299. SAD!  The plebiscite merges the parishes of Lac Baker, Saint-François, Clair, Baker Brook, Saint-Hilaire, Madawaska, and the villages of Clair, Baker-Brook, Saint-François de Madawaska and St. Hilaire into a rural community.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa-Vanier: Brown says he expects to lose but coming within 10-15% would be an achievement. If he wants a Francophone in caucus he'd have to appoint one in an Anglo seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why, is Glengarry-Prescott-Russell out of the question?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, brain fart. Blessing in disguise if Marin isn't in his caucus.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, GPR is the only Francophone riding in the province. Ottawa-Vanier is only 31% French.

[the506]

There was an amalgamation plebiscite in the Haut-Madawaska region. Voters approved amalgamation 493-299. SAD!  The plebiscite merges the parishes of Lac Baker, Saint-François, Clair, Baker Brook, Saint-Hilaire, Madawaska, and the villages of Clair, Baker-Brook, Saint-François de Madawaska and St. Hilaire into a rural community.

Fun fact: this was actually a revote. First one was last November, and it failed because one municipality said no.

[Hatman 🍁]

Preview of today's by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/11/ontario-provincial-by-election-preview.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seeing as Wynne is at McGinty levels, could she resign if she loses these by-elections?

[RogueBeaver]

Seeing as Wynne is at McGinty levels, could she resign if she loses these by-elections?

Niagara is a safe Tory seat, Ottawa-Vanier safe Liberal. There have been faint whispers that she should if Ottawa-Vanier somehow goes blue, but extremely unlikely regardless. She's fiercely competitive and firmly believes she can repeat 2014.

[DL]

Seeing as Wynne is at McGinty levels, could she resign if she loses these by-elections?

Niagara is a safe Tory seat, Ottawa-Vanier safe Liberal. There have been faint whispers that she should if Ottawa-Vanier somehow goes blue, but extremely unlikely regardless. She's fiercely competitive and firmly believes she can repeat 2014.

There is no such a thing as a "safe seat" anymore...especially in byelections. Remember when outremont was the "safest Liberal seat in Canada"...a seat is safe until it isn't. I suspect that the Liberals will win narrowly...if they did lose, it would probably cause some major freak outs in Liberal circles but I think Wynne would pretend she was Greg Selinger and doggedly try to hold on and truth be told with just 1.5 years to the next ontario election, there is really no mechanism for the Ontario liberals to get rid of her.

I'll also be curious to see if the Liberals can be driven into third place in Niagara West-Glanbrook

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont was never the safest seat in Canada. When Mulcair won, it was the #1 NDP target in Quebec.

But yeah, there's an outside shot Ottawa-Vanier could go blue.

[RogueBeaver]

Results here. https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

[Tintrlvr]

Results here. https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

OLP is far in third in Niagara so far (early results):

PCO: 1430
ONDP: 601
OLP: 369

21/236

But up big in Ottawa-Vanier:

OLP: 704
PCO: 269
ONDP: 106

15/265

[King of Kensington]

Really not a surprise.

Niagara West is a very safe conservative seat with a large Dutch Canadian/religious conservative element. 

Ottawa-Vanier is about as safe a seat for the Liberals as St. Paul's.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really not a surprise.

Niagara West is a very safe conservative seat with a large Dutch Canadian/religious conservative element. 

Ottawa-Vanier is about as safe a seat for the Liberals as St. Paul's.

Well, 8th safest seat. And yes, NGW has a largish evangelical population, but by no means a majority. It's safe because of how well the Tories are polling. It's possible that if there were a federal by-election there right now the Liberals could win.