Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

Much better than the NDP's federal by-election performance here from 2014, so not a bad result. I suspect a lot of Liberals stayed home.

Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.

Yes, this is indeed true (I helped compile his results on his Wiki page)

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.

Frankly, if this is a sign of where polling maps are going (an echo of Toronto's present "polling station = polling division" pattern?), it ain't gonna be as much fun following elections in the future...

It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

[adma]

It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

Yeah, "rational" like abolishing the mandatory long form census.  Seriously, if the future is one of advance-poll-scaled mega-polling divisions with 1000+ registered voters, how is that supposed to help ground crews or anybody else (including sociologists, urban-studies types, etc) for whom the fine worms-eye electoral detail of sanely-scaled polls is beneficial?  It'd be like suggesting that the only "polling divisions" that matter are the omnibus figures for the neighbourhoods in your W-O profile.  No.  They.  Aren't.

[Hatman 🍁]

It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

Yeah, "rational" like abolishing the mandatory long form census.  Seriously, if the future is one of advance-poll-scaled mega-polling divisions with 1000+ registered voters, how is that supposed to help ground crews or anybody else (including sociologists, urban-studies types, etc) for whom the fine worms-eye electoral detail of sanely-scaled polls is beneficial?  It'd be like suggesting that the only "polling divisions" that matter are the omnibus figures for the neighbourhoods in your W-O profile.  No.  They.  Aren't.

It's not at all like abolishing the long form census. But anyways, I'm sure a compromise can be had. Maybe have separate ballot boxes for the same poll workers. You can save money on fewer workers but maintain the polling granularity.

Interestingly, municipal election polling divisions are also quite large. Again, this is likely due to smaller turnouts.

[adma]

Interestingly, municipal election polling divisions are also quite large. Again, this is likely due to smaller turnouts.

And of course, I mentioned Toronto in that light, where one polling location = one polling division--however, given that that's a circumstance dating back to Megacity, you can just as well blame Mike Harris-induced "efficiency-minded" dumbing-down for that, with "smaller turnouts" but a convenient scapegoat.

I mean, if that kind of dumbing-down of polling maps is going to inch uphill to the provincial and federal level, than you might as well euthanize it all on behalf of post-FPTP "electoral reform", electronic balloting, etc etc where traditional "polling divisions" no longer much matter, except maybe through postal-code data that'd understandably less accessible to the general public.

[Poirot]

For the Longueuil municipal by-election the candidates are:

Mario Leclerc, was a federal candidate for the Green party in Longueuil - Charles-Lemoyne.

Josée Latendresse, restaurant owner and president of the Saint-Charles street businesses association. She is running for the Action Longueuil party of the mayor.

The Saint-Charles district has the subway station in it and the old historic Longueuil.

[Poirot]

Result for Saint-Charles district in Longueuil

Josée Latendresse 1027
Mario Leclerc 188

There were 11650 eligible voters so turnout is 10.5%

[the506]

I mean, if that kind of dumbing-down of polling maps is going to inch uphill to the provincial and federal level, than you might as well euthanize it all on behalf of post-FPTP "electoral reform", electronic balloting, etc etc where traditional "polling divisions" no longer much matter, except maybe through postal-code data that'd understandably less accessible to the general public.

When New Brunswick went to electronic counting, and only sprung for one tabulator per polling station (maybe 2 in really busy ones), they still felt the need to include that granular polling division data. The PD # is coded on each ballot. If anything, it's even better, since the results by PD include advance and special ballots too. The only ballots that aren't included are the ones where they screwed up the coding, and that was ~1% of all of them.

I'd love to see other places adopt it.

[lilTommy]

Sheila Ward, Toronto School Board Trustee in Ward 20 (Toronto Centre) and former Chair has died. She's been a Trustee since 97. By-election likely coming this year I suspect.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sheila-ward-1.3452903

[RogueBeaver]

Calgary-Greenway will be called for March 22.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of today's by-election in Victoriaville: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/victoriaville-quebec-mayoral-by.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Bellavance will win easily, he has a massive lead with 41/89 polls reporting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Andre Bellavance: 9219 (75.3%)
Andre Guillemette: 1522 (12.4%)
Gilles Lafontaine: 1270 (10.4%)
Simon Roux: 235 (1.9%)

Turnout: 34.2%

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a by-election in Saint-Hyacinthe as well, for District 7 (Saint-Sacrement) councillor to replace Brigitte Sansoucy who was elected to the House of Commons for the NDP:

Annie Pelletier: 101 (20.6%)
Danny Laroche: 98 (20.0%)
Donald Poirier: 91 (18.6%)
Patrick Robert: 81 (16.5%)
Frederic Brillon: 73 (14.9%)
Jeannot Caron: 34 (6.9%)
Marcel Delage: 12 (2.4%)

Turnout: 12% ! so low for a three vote win.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

[lilTommy]

Calgary-Greenway will be called for March 22.

NDP has nominated their Candidate for the Calgary-Greenway by-election

Roop Rai - Former Radio host of the Roshni program on Red FM radio station. She is now constituency assistant for MLA Irfan Sabir in the neighbouring Calgary-McCall constituency.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/ndp-nominates-candidate-for-calgary-greenway-byelection

The Greens have nominated Thana Boonlert, an environmental engineer, is a member of the Calgary Climate Action Network and volunteers with the Calgary Drop-In Centre. He was the Federal Candidate in Calgary-Centre (none of Calgary-Greenway in in Federal Calgary-Centre)

[Njall]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

[Hatman 🍁]

So the Tory vote will be split? Excellent.

[lilTommy]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

None of them won... Moe Banga (a former police detective and director of the police association.) won

http://www.630ched.com/2016/02/22/ward12byelection/
official results: http://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/by-election.aspx

[Hatman 🍁]

Disappointing results...

Moe Banga: 2359 (17.8%)
Laura Thibert: 1283 (9.7%)
Sandhu Arundeep Singh: 1106 (8.3%)
Irfan Chaudhry: 950 (7.2%)
Nav Kaur: 888 (6.7%)
Danisha Bhaloo: 843 (6.3%)
Preet Toor: 665 (5.0%)
Sam Jhahh: 612 (4.6%)
Rakesh Patel: 542 (4.1%)
Brian Henderson: 541 (4.1%)
Balraj Singh Manhas: 466 (3.5%)
Dan Johnstone: 436 (3.3%)
Mike Butler: 371 (2.8%)
Yash Sharma: 334 (2.5%)
The rest: 1883 (14.2%)

[Krago]

Moe Banga, Mo' Problems

And the 8th place finisher was Sam Jhajj, not Sam Jhahh (though admittedly he was less a viable candidate and more a triple-word score).

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the final day for voting in St. John's' Ward 4 by-election. The election is being conducted exclusively by mail, so I expect a very low turnout.



The ward was vacated when its councillor, Bernard Davis was elected to the Newfoundland House of Assembly last fall.

There are five candidates.
-Sheilagh O'Leary - ran for mayor in 2013 and for the NDP in a 2014 by-election. She is also a former city councillor
-Jill Bruce - "parent representative"
-Debbie Hanlon - former city councillor
-Janet Kovich - former constituency assistant in St. George's-Stephenville East. Probably for Joan Burke (PC), though it could be for Scott Reid (Lib).
-Matthew White - accountant

The race will likely be between Bruce and O'Leary. O'Leary's recent partisanship might hurt her. Nice to see 4/5 candidates are women though.

[Njall]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

None of them won... Moe Banga (a former police detective and director of the police association.) won

http://www.630ched.com/2016/02/22/ward12byelection/
official results: http://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/by-election.aspx

Looks like Banga is/was a CPC'er

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome result, O'Leary wins!

Sheilagh O'Leary: 2725 (53.29%)
Jill Bruce: 959 (18.75%)
Debbie Hanlon: 876 (17.13%)
Matthew White: 293 (5.73%)
Janet Kovich: 261 (5.10%)

Turnout: 34.5% (not bad, either!)

[lilTommy]

The PCs in Calgary-Greenway have appointed a candidate rather then having a nomination meeting. Not sure if that is going to impact their vote, doesn't "look" great.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-appoint-candidate-in-calgary-greenway-bypass-nomination-meeting

Prabhdeep Singh has been appointed, but three others Dan Sidhu, Jamie Lall, and Tushar Yadav had been approved to run.

[Njall]

The PCs in Calgary-Greenway have appointed a candidate rather then having a nomination meeting. Not sure if that is going to impact their vote, doesn't "look" great.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-appoint-candidate-in-calgary-greenway-bypass-nomination-meeting

Prabhdeep Singh has been appointed, but three others Dan Sidhu, Jamie Lall, and Tushar Yadav had been approved to run.

Didn't see this before, but as an update to the above, Interim Leader Ric McIver reversed the local party board's decision following backlash from the public, party members, and the province-wide party board.  Instead, a proper nomination meeting was organized, and it took place tonight.  In the end, Prabhdeep (Singh) Gill beat out Jamie Lall, Dan Sidhu, and Tushar Yadav for the nomination.

That leaves this list of confirmed candidates for the byelection:
PC: Prabhdeep Gill
NDP: Roop Rai
WRP: Devinder Toor
ALP: Khalil Karbani
Green: Thana Boonlert