Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])  (Read 62370 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #50 on: February 03, 2016, 08:07:36 AM »

Excellent news!
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adma
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« Reply #51 on: February 03, 2016, 08:19:40 AM »

Haha. As former BC political reporter Stephen Smart tweeted tonight... Lowest voter turnout in 25 years. Looks like C-BM had roughly a 20 percent turnout. Brutal. Will say it again. The BC NDP will have the lowest popular vote share in the 2017 general since 1969. (Aside from the 2001 debacle). And I was bang-on in the 2013 BC general. Wink

Ah, Lotuslander; always up with the easy alibis.

(Though he's mild stuff compared to some of those pro-Hillary anti-Sanders types in the Iowa Democratic Caucus results thread)
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DL
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« Reply #52 on: February 03, 2016, 10:25:00 AM »


So back to the by-elections. What I will be looking for:

1. Will the BC Greens increase their popular vote share? And by how much? Will that eat into the BC NDP popular vote share?

2. Will the BC Liberals buck the historical trend and win the C-BM by-election?

The foregoing will have major implications heading toward the May, 2017 BC provincial election methinks.


I guess the answers to these questions are as follows:

1. Yes, the BC Greens increased their popular vote, but not enough to be remotely in contention and it looks like they actually took more votes from the BC Liberals than they did from the NDP (though i suppose its possible that if there had been no BC Green candidates on the ballot at all - the NDP would have won both seats by even bigger margins). Still its notable that when the Greens do really well in a particular riding like Saanich North or Oak Bay - the data suggests that they take votes equally from the BC Liberals and the NDP. Since the BC Liberals are the de facto "conservative party" in BC, the Greens are the de facto "liberal party"

2. No the BC Liberals did NOT buck any historic trend. They threw everything they had into trying to hold Coquitlam-Burke Mountain - an d lost by an 8 point margin in a riding that they have always won by wide margins.

If you think these byelection results have "major implications" for the 2017 BC election, what might those implications be?

In the short term, it will boost NDP morale, fundraising and candidate recruitment and solidify Horgan's image as the one and only person who can knock off Christy "Premier photo-op" Clark
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #53 on: February 03, 2016, 11:39:15 AM »
« Edited: February 03, 2016, 11:41:32 AM by New Canadaland »

Congrats to the BC NDP!
And lol Loutslander. Didn't you have a bet with DL?
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adma
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« Reply #54 on: February 03, 2016, 07:45:37 PM »

Congrats to the BC NDP!
And lol Loutslander. Didn't you have a bet with DL?

He thinks that "it's a low-turnout byelection; but come the general, you just watch" is a good enough alibi.  Even when the bet involves said byelection.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #55 on: February 05, 2016, 04:17:22 PM »

Mainstreet Whitby-Oshawa: 44-38-13
If this seat is closer than it was in 2014, it is very ominous news for the PCs.
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adma
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« Reply #56 on: February 05, 2016, 10:01:13 PM »

Mainstreet Whitby-Oshawa: 44-38-13
If this seat is closer than it was in 2014, it is very ominous news for the PCs.

Or a reflection of lingering Trudeaumania lifting the Libs at the expense of the NDP.  After all, the PC share is still 3-4% higher here than in 2014--so for the real "ominous news", look orangeward rather than blueward.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #57 on: February 05, 2016, 10:30:53 PM »

Mainstreet Whitby-Oshawa: 44-38-13
If this seat is closer than it was in 2014, it is very ominous news for the PCs.

Or a reflection of lingering Trudeaumania lifting the Libs at the expense of the NDP.  After all, the PC share is still 3-4% higher here than in 2014--so for the real "ominous news", look orangeward rather than blueward.

We oranges only have to wait for Trudeau starting to do as every Liberal PM before, i.e. becoming right-wing.

His left-wing rhetoric pleases our voters, I'm not sure his actions will.
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Poirot
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« Reply #58 on: February 05, 2016, 10:34:25 PM »

I've read Trudeau will be with Wynne in that riding.
Doesn't sound very prime ministerial to be in campaign of provincial politics.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #59 on: February 05, 2016, 11:16:19 PM »

Maybe so, but it's good politics for the very unpopular OLP. I suspect this will help the OLP more than it brings down Trdueau's reputation.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #60 on: February 05, 2016, 11:40:13 PM »


Or a reflection of lingering Trudeaumania lifting the Libs at the expense of the NDP.  After all, the PC share is still 3-4% higher here than in 2014--so for the real "ominous news", look orangeward rather than blueward.

Well, it's bad news for both the PCs and NDP.
The PCs are not going to win if the NDP are weak and the Liberals are strong in the GTA.
While it's bad news for the NDP that they are doing worse, they can console themselves by saying this wasn't a seat that is competitive for them.
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adma
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« Reply #61 on: February 06, 2016, 09:54:37 PM »

Well, it's bad news for both the PCs and NDP.
The PCs are not going to win if the NDP are weak and the Liberals are strong in the GTA.
While it's bad news for the NDP that they are doing worse, they can console themselves by saying this wasn't a seat that is competitive for them.

Though in the McGuinty/Wynne-era climate, it really was the Flaherty/Elliott dynamic that kept this firmly in the PC camp more than any "natural" ground base.

Also, when Elliott was herself first byelected in the former Whitby-Ajax, it was with 46% to 42% for former Grit MP Judi Longfield.  So, tight red/blue races aren't at all surprising here.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #62 on: February 09, 2016, 09:43:32 AM »

The Nunavut riding of Netsilik went to the polls last night in a by-election to replace Jeannie Ugyuk, who resigned following a motion of no confidence in her. The riding consists of the two hamlets of Taloyoak and and Kuugaaruk at the base of the Boothia Peninsula in the central part of the territory.

Results:
Emilino Qirngnuq: 137 (31%) - elected
Tars Angutingunirk: 116 (26%)
John Ningark: 65 (15%)
Wesley Totalik Sr: 64 (15%)
Joseph Quqqiaq: 57 (13%)

Qirngnuq won Kugaaruk while Totalik won Taloyoak (he only received 4 votes in Kugaaruk).

Qingnuq if a former manager of the Kugaaruk co-op.

Turnout was 69% in Kugaaruk and 51% in Taloyoak, which is actually the larger community but had fewer voters.

For the record, both communities went overwhelmingly Tory in the 2011 federal election, but went Liberal as recently as 2006.



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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #63 on: February 10, 2016, 08:21:20 AM »

Mainstreet: 46/29/12.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2016, 02:00:08 PM »

My profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/whitby-oshawa-by-election-today.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #65 on: February 11, 2016, 09:20:19 PM »

Tories have a yuge lead.
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adma
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« Reply #66 on: February 11, 2016, 09:29:23 PM »


And the NDP's much higher (i.e. 17-18% range) than generally expected.
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adma
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« Reply #67 on: February 11, 2016, 09:31:50 PM »

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #68 on: February 11, 2016, 10:15:45 PM »

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.

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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #69 on: February 11, 2016, 10:39:17 PM »

LOL
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trebor204
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« Reply #70 on: February 11, 2016, 11:38:38 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2016, 11:40:32 PM by trebor204 »

Final Results:



Coe, Lorne PC Party of Ontario 17,053 52.92 % 8,188
Roy, Elizabeth Ontario Liberal Party  8,865 27.51 % 
Lundquist, Niki Ontario NDP/NPD 5,172 16.05 % 
Leadbetter, Stacey Green Party of Ontario 529 1.64 % 
Vezina, Greg None of the Above Party (NOTA) 261 0.81 % 
Znoneofthe, Above INDEPENDENT 140 0.43 % 
McEwan, Adam Libertarian 109 0.34 % 
Cuthbert, Garry The People 52 0.16 % 
Thom, Douglas Freedom Party of Ontario 34 0.11 % 
Turmel, John Paupers 11 0.03 %


One of candidates changed his name to Above, Znoneofthe (so he could be the last name on the ballot, as Znoneofthe Above), and one candidate is from the None of the Above Party.
and once again John Turmel lost another election. That's number 88.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel
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lilTommy
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« Reply #71 on: February 12, 2016, 07:20:41 AM »

Final Results:



Coe, Lorne PC Party of Ontario 17,053 52.92 % 8,188
Roy, Elizabeth Ontario Liberal Party  8,865 27.51 % 
Lundquist, Niki Ontario NDP/NPD 5,172 16.05 % 
Leadbetter, Stacey Green Party of Ontario 529 1.64 % 
Vezina, Greg None of the Above Party (NOTA) 261 0.81 % 
Znoneofthe, Above INDEPENDENT 140 0.43 % 
McEwan, Adam Libertarian 109 0.34 % 
Cuthbert, Garry The People 52 0.16 % 
Thom, Douglas Freedom Party of Ontario 34 0.11 % 
Turmel, John Paupers 11 0.03 %


One of candidates changed his name to Above, Znoneofthe (so he could be the last name on the ballot, as Znoneofthe Above), and one candidate is from the None of the Above Party.
and once again John Turmel lost another election. That's number 88.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

PCs performed better then at the 2014 election (52% vs 40% in 2014); the Liberals (27% vs 31%) and the NDP (16% vs 23%) performed worse.
The PCs 52% is better then Elliot ever managed to get since being elected in 2007. They must be pretty happy.
Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.
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adma
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« Reply #72 on: February 12, 2016, 08:18:25 AM »

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.



Frankly, if this is a sign of where polling maps are going (an echo of Toronto's present "polling station = polling division" pattern?), it ain't gonna be as much fun following elections in the future...
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adma
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« Reply #73 on: February 12, 2016, 08:22:00 AM »

Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #74 on: February 12, 2016, 10:19:03 AM »

Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.

2014 was a high mark for the NDP here just to add to your point; typically their vote was about 10-15% (increasing since 2003); I do remember seeing that they were polling below 10 which is like 99-03 territory for the party. 16%, is pretty decent for the expectations that had been there for the NDPs performance.
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