Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Poirot]

A riding poll for the provincial by-election in Chicoutimi. It was done by Segma Recherche, 400 people from March 18 to 23, margin of error almost 5%.

PQ 39%
PLQ 33%
CAQ 17%
QS 7%
Vert 3%
Option Nationale 1%

Pollster says inthe first days the gap between the top 2 was big but in the last days it was almost tied, attributed to diminishing effect of Nathalie Normandeau's arrest.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201603/24/01-4964322-sondage-le-pq-en-avance-dans-chicoutimi.php

[RogueBeaver]

PQ should keep it, but if the Grits win a major humiliation for PKP. That riding's been PQ since '73 and bleu for 80 years.

[Poirot]

New Segma poll just before the Chicoutimi bye-election. The PQ has a clear lead. The last week was bad for the government on ethics

PQ 44%
PLQ 22%
CAQ 18%
QS 9%
Vert 5%
ON 2%

margin of error of 4%.
60% think the Liberal party is corrupt.
 
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201604/07/01-4968864-partielle-dans-chicoutimi-la-pequiste-mireille-jean-bien-en-controle.php.

[Hatman 🍁]

Charts and a map for today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/chicoutimi-by-election-charts-and-maps.html

[MaxQue]

Charts and a map for today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/chicoutimi-by-election-charts-and-maps.html

It should have been cose, but the last weeks were a disaster for Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Indeed. Charest didn't help by saying today that he ran an honest government and had confidence in Normandeau's vindication.

[Hatman 🍁]

Winnable? Maybe. The federal Liberals would've won it (barely):

[MaxQue]

That's the kind of place PQ wins thanks to unions and Liberal being generally weak in "régions éloignées" (in 2012, PQ won all seats in those).

But the PQ grasp in the Saguenay (their former stronghold) is weakening (due to demographic changes; move from an unionised manufacturing industry to a service-one). And Liberals are getting stronger over time in regional cities. All the seats in Saguenay are becoming closer and closer (Dubuc fell once) and so, in the right circumstances, they may fall.

[Poirot]

A few weeks ago reports were PLQ thought they had a chance, hoping to score a symbolic win in a long time PQ seat. The MNA resigned because Péladeau replaced him as Parliamentary leader. Maybe the PQ voters would be disappointed by the move.

The margin of victory last election was 5%. The PLQ candidate is Francyne Gobeil. She has worked for Saguenay mayor and supports her. Pettersen was Independent candidate who received 11% last election, I think he is PLQ (he ran Liberal federally) and he supports Gobeil, so maybe some votes could come to PLQ. I saw an ineternet ad for Gobeil. It was about it's time to try something new, and to be heard, so you can try for two years to be on the government side instaed of always being in opposition.

That was the rationale for a possible win.

Hélène Girard is the CAQ candidate. She works in local radio. Waiting a trial for drunk driving.
Mireille Jean is for the PQ. Tyrrell for the Green is the leader, not from the riding but at least he campaigned there. Dostie for QS is a former candidate. Option Nationale also has a candidate.

(written from memory of what I read, didn't have time to check all facts)     

[RogueBeaver]

PQ cruising so far.

[Poirot]

After 23/158

PQ 47%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 11%
QS 8%

[RogueBeaver]

Radio-Canada calls it for the PQ.

[Poirot]

After a third of the vote (56/158), the battle is for third place.

PQ 48%
PLQ 26%
CAQ 10,8%
QS 9,7%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Final Results Chicoutimi
Mireille Jean-PQ 46.69% 8810
Francyne T. Gobeil- Liberal 30.21% 5700
Hélène Girard-CAQ 11.74% 2216
Pierre Dostie-QS 7.99% 1508
Alex Tyrrell-Green 2.46% 465
Catherine Bouchard-Tremblay- Option National 0.9% 170

http://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.en.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

PQ: +12.2%
PLQ: +0.6%
CAQ: -5.7%
QS: +1.5%

Two party swing: +5.8% (PLQ to PQ)

Turnout: 41.1%

[lilTommy]

Maureen Macdonald, NDP MLA for Halifax-Needham, is retiring from politics due to health reasons. She was not given any critic roles back when Gary Burrill won the leadership race, so it looks like this was coming. She's been an MLA since 1998. Will Burrill run here, or wait till 2017/2018 and run in his old seat he held 09-13?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/maureen-macdonald-ndp-resign-1.3531491

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill hasn't said anything yet, but Halifax Needham would be about as good as it gets for a by election. The rural seats were all narrowly won and their MLAs all have strong personal followings. Dartmouth South was only recently won in a byelection.

The only other plausible option for Burrill IMO is his former leadership rival Dave Wilson's seat in Sackville Cobequid.

Also, MacDonald's resignation is apparently health related but no specific details have been released.

[136or142]

Maureen Macdonald, NDP MLA for Halifax-Needham, is retiring from politics due to health reasons. She was not given any critic roles back when Gary Burrill won the leadership race, so it looks like this was coming. She's been an MLA since 1998. Will Burrill run here, or wait till 2017/2018 and run in his old seat he held 09-13?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/maureen-macdonald-ndp-resign-1.3531491

It seems like being in the Nova Scotia NDP caucus is hazardous to one's health

[RogueBeaver]

Former NDP MP is filing to run for the OLP in Scarborough-Rouge River. Guess it won't be too long till Wynne calls that by-election.

[DL]

Former NDP MP is filing to run for the OLP in Scarborough-Rouge River. Guess it won't be too long till Wynne calls that by-election.

I've also read that there is another preferred candidate for the OLP nomination and that it is very unlikely Rathika can get nominated. There is some speculation that Neethan Shan will run for the NDP and that he and Rathika do not care for one another. She was maneuvered out of the NDP nomination, will lose the Liberal nomination...I predict shell wind up running for the Green Party

[136or142]

Maureen Macdonald, NDP MLA for Halifax-Needham, is retiring from politics due to health reasons. She was not given any critic roles back when Gary Burrill won the leadership race, so it looks like this was coming. She's been an MLA since 1998. Will Burrill run here, or wait till 2017/2018 and run in his old seat he held 09-13?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/maureen-macdonald-ndp-resign-1.3531491

It seems like being in the Nova Scotia NDP caucus is hazardous to one's health

I was actually being serious.  I know statistical clusters exist, but there have been 3 NDP MLAs that have resigned since the election for health reasons.  As far as I can tell, this is unprecedented.  To be sure, I don't know what their health issues are, but if there is similarities in their health problems I think the NDP offices and caucus room should be checked for environmental toxins.

[King of Kensington]

Was saddened to learn of Howard Kaplan's passing.  His son is a neighbor of mine.

And I suspect York Centre won't elect a like-minded trustee to replace him.

[lilTommy]

Was saddened to learn of Howard Kaplan's passing.  His son is a neighbor of mine.

And I suspect York Centre won't elect a like-minded trustee to replace him.

two TDSB trustees have recently died, that's unfortunate and odd

[Hatman 🍁]

Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

[lilTommy]

Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

really? could they not be? the Toronto-Centre one has not been called. Who calls them?