Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Philly D.]

Former Bloc president Catherine Fournier is likely the next MNA for Marie-Victorin. Although the best known candidate, it took three rounds of voting to nominate her.

Meanwhile in Verdun, it looks like the PLQ may continue swinging from big business types to NDPers back and forth, as former Mercier MNA Natalie Rochefort is seeking the nomination. Her focus on community action wasn't a priority with Jean Charest, and doesn't seem better under Philippe Couillard:\ No guarantees though -- party executive Jerome Turcotte is also seeking the nomination.

I think there's a small chance the PLQ can take Arthabaska: Sylvie Roy had a large personal vote and they won the riding in 2003 and 2007. While the ADQ came close in 2003 with Tory MP Alain Rayes, they've done relatively better in 2012 and 2014 in the more conservative areas around Quebec City.

[Poirot]

The CAQ candidate in Arthabaska will be businessman Eric Lefebvre. He was a councillor in Victoriaville, ran for the Conservatives in the 2008 federal election in Richmond-Arthabaska (came second with 29%) and in 2009 ran for mayor of Victoriaville (got 33% and lost to Alain Rayes who is now Conservative MP).   

[RogueBeaver]

Arthabaska: Luc Dastout, the PLQ's 2014 candidate, is their nominee again.

[Poirot]

Luc Dastous was city councillor from 2009 to 2015 in Plessisville. Originally from Laurierville. Works at the youth and employment center in Victoriaville. Has worked in research and communications for the PLQ in the National Assembly. In 2000 was federal Liberal candidate in Lotbinière-L'Érable.

http://www.lanouvelle.net/actualites/politique/2016/9/22/couillard-annonce-la-candidature-de-dastous.html

In La Presse, in a story on Denis Lebel's former chief of staff resigning from his job in Couillard's office, we learn Denis Lebel seemed opened to running for the PLQ in Arthabaska.

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[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa-Vanier-provincial: Marin will be the Tory candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier. Vanier itself makes up only 15% of the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, I'm expecting a 3-way fight in the provincial by-election, especially considering the Liberals will likely pick someone no one has ever head of.  They'll still win of course, but not in the usual landslide fashion.

Federally, the Liberals will come close to 60% (or more), especially if they pick someone like Mathieu Fluery. And then that will spark a municipal by-election and hopefully someone more progressive can replace him on city council. (Ottawa City Council is dominated by bureaucratic centrists Watsonites like Fleury)

[RogueBeaver]

Federal Ottawa-Vanier: Candidates are waiting on Mme Bélanger's decision.

[RogueBeaver]

Medicine Hat: count me extremely skeptical this will be remotely competitive.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa-Vanier-provincial: OLP will choose its candidate tomorrow. Will Wynne call this one before Niagara or wait?

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa-Vanier-provincial: Des Rosiers nominated.

[RogueBeaver]

Medicine Hat: Gunter on the stakes.

[DC Al Fine]

Medicine Hat: count me extremely skeptical this will be remotely competitive.

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Very true. I think if the Socred candidate pulls ~20% of the vote, the Liberals might be able to pull this off again

[136or142]

Medicine Hat: Gunter on the stakes.

Lorne Gunter is such an amusing hack.

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial-Ottawa-Vanier: Citizen on the candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a provincial by-election in Summerside-Wilmot today (surprisingly, first I'd heard about it):

Chris Palmer, Lib. - 978 (42.3%) +2.9%
Brian Ramsay, PC - 720 (31.2%) -7.2%
Lynne Lund, Grn - 506 (21.9%) +12.0%
Scott Gaudet, NDP - 107 (4.6%) -7.6%

Liberal hold. PC to Liberal swing: 5.1%

[adma]

The *Green* result is interesting.  (I'm almost wondering about the likelihood of PEI electing a Green government at this rate.)

Incidentally, whither Newmarket Ward 5 (as per the current subject thread title)?

[136or142]

The *Green* result is interesting.  (I'm almost wondering about the likelihood of PEI electing a Green government at this rate.)

As you may not be aware, the Green Party has a seat in the Prince Edward Island legislature while the NDP does not.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens even won 2 polls last night (the 2 downtown polls)

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, the exciting results of the Newmarket Ward 5 by-election:

Bob Kwapis: 803 (39.2%)
Darryl Wolk: 479 (23.4%)
Tracee Chambers: 444 (21.7%)
5 other candidates: 323 (15.8%)

Turnout: 27%

Ward 5 covers the downtown part of the city, but since it's Newmarket, most of it still suburbia, and has voted Tory and Liberal in recent elections. The ward was vacated when previous councillor Joe Sponga resigned for reasons "shrouded in secrecy".

Kwapis is a business manager with a background in telecommunications.

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara called for Nov. 17.

[RogueBeaver]

Given Wynne's current polling, I'm extremely curious to see an Ottawa-Vanier poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

Given Wynne's current polling, I'm extremely curious to see an Ottawa-Vanier poll.

Big caveat: Ottawa is not like the rest of Ontario. We do not pay attention to provincial politics here.

[DL]

Big caveat: Ottawa is not like the rest of Ontario. We do not pay attention to provincial politics here.

Apparently Ontarians pay enough attention to Ontario politics to give the provincial Liberals about 25% lower support than they would give the federal Liberals if an election were held today

[adma]

Though Ottawa-Vanier is a bit of a "on behalf of *whom*?" case--the Grits could still win over a split opposition.

2nd place for the NDP in NW-G is definitely plausible.