Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])  (Read 62376 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #350 on: October 21, 2016, 05:59:04 PM »


Big caveat: Ottawa is not like the rest of Ontario. We do not pay attention to provincial politics here.

Apparently Ontarians pay enough attention to Ontario politics to give the provincial Liberals about 25% lower support than they would give the federal Liberals if an election were held today

Ontarians as a whole yes, but not so much Ottawans. There's plenty of people upset with Wynne here, but I suspect most are just Tory voters to begin with.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #351 on: October 23, 2016, 12:16:53 AM »

So, a 19 year old won the PC nomination (and thus will become the next MPP) in Niagara West-Glanbrook. He beat out a city councillor and a former MP too.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #352 on: October 23, 2016, 06:50:37 AM »

So, a 19 year old won the PC nomination (and thus will become the next MPP) in Niagara West-Glanbrook. He beat out a city councillor and a former MP too.

So what happened there?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #353 on: October 23, 2016, 07:15:21 AM »

A small business owner won the Tory nomination in Calgary-Heritage.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #354 on: October 23, 2016, 10:00:38 AM »

So, a 19 year old won the PC nomination (and thus will become the next MPP) in Niagara West-Glanbrook. He beat out a city councillor and a former MP too.

So what happened there?

I guess he did a good job signing up members and the other candidates took him for granted?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #355 on: October 23, 2016, 10:13:12 AM »

So, a 19 year old won the PC nomination (and thus will become the next MPP) in Niagara West-Glanbrook. He beat out a city councillor and a former MP too.

So what happened there?

I guess he did a good job signing up members and the other candidates took him for granted?

Benzie said something on Twitter about socon revenge, no idea if that's true.
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adma
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« Reply #356 on: October 23, 2016, 11:16:49 AM »

Benzie said something on Twitter about socon revenge, no idea if that's true.

So a Monte McNaughton-cum-Pierre Poilievre case?  (And they all have glasses in common...)
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #357 on: October 23, 2016, 11:29:28 AM »

So is the PCPO (not Brown) officially the most inept political party in the world?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #358 on: October 23, 2016, 11:31:04 AM »

There's nothing unusual about this guy except his age, apparently.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #359 on: October 23, 2016, 11:32:39 AM »

So is the PCPO (not Brown) officially the most inept political party in the world?

Nah it happens to everyone from time to time, with different groups. It's pretty easy win a nomination this way if the other candidates aren't expecting a fight.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #360 on: October 23, 2016, 11:39:25 AM »

So is the PCPO (not Brown) officially the most inept political party in the world?

Nah it happens to everyone from time to time, with different groups. It's pretty easy win a nomination this way if the other candidates aren't expecting a fight.

Yeah. Here we had Bureau-Blouin knock off a cabinet minister in a swing seat 4 years ago (only 1 term, but still). As pro-youth as I am, I still prefer 21+. Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #361 on: October 24, 2016, 03:03:09 PM »

Profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/10/medicine-hat-cardston-warner-federal-by.html
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #362 on: October 24, 2016, 03:52:40 PM »

So, a 19 year old won the PC nomination (and thus will become the next MPP) in Niagara West-Glanbrook. He beat out a city councillor and a former MP too.

So what happened there?

I guess he did a good job signing up members and the other candidates took him for granted?

Benzie said something on Twitter about socon revenge, no idea if that's true.

Word on my Facebook feed is that he's just some kid who was active in the riding association with no public leanings. Of course thats a friend of a friend who knows someone in the EDA. Take it with a grain of salt.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #363 on: October 24, 2016, 09:48:22 PM »

First poll reporting.  Likely from a rural area, but about what I would have expected

Rhinoceros   Kayne Cooper   0   0.0 %   
Libertarian   Sheldon W Johnston   1   1.0 %   
Conservative   Glen Motz   86   89.6 %   
Liberal   Stan Sakamoto   7   7.3 %   
Christian Heritage Party   Rod Taylor   1   1.0 %   
NDP-New Democratic Party   Beverly Ann Waege   1   1.0 %   
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trebor204
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« Reply #364 on: October 24, 2016, 09:51:38 PM »

After 3 Polls

Conservative - 92.3%
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #365 on: October 24, 2016, 10:01:30 PM »


After 10 polls

Conservative - 85.4%

Doesn't look good for the Conservatives here.  Looks like their vote share is collapsing. Cheesy
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #366 on: October 24, 2016, 10:04:57 PM »

Down to 81% after 12 polls.  I predict a Liberal landslide! Cheesy
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Hash
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« Reply #367 on: October 24, 2016, 10:06:57 PM »

Let's immortalize this hilarious moment:

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trebor204
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« Reply #368 on: October 24, 2016, 10:27:19 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 10:29:26 PM by trebor204 »

Conservative support After
20 Polls: 73.3%
25 Polls 70.8%
30 - 70.3%
35 - 69.2%
40 - 69.3%
45 - 68.4%
50 - 68.0%
55 - 69.0%
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Poirot
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« Reply #369 on: October 24, 2016, 10:29:21 PM »

Maybe city polls are coming in.

NDP is behind Christian Heritage Party.
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trebor204
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« Reply #370 on: October 24, 2016, 10:32:09 PM »

The CHP party candidate beat the NDP is the MacLeod by-election in 2014 by 4 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #371 on: October 24, 2016, 10:39:19 PM »

The CHP party candidate beat the NDP is the MacLeod by-election in 2014 by 4 votes.

Was that a Federal by-election?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #372 on: October 24, 2016, 10:42:23 PM »

The CHP party candidate beat the NDP is the MacLeod by-election in 2014 by 4 votes.

Was that a Federal by-election?
Yes, and MacLeod (now called Foothills) tends to be even more Conservative than MH-C-W.
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trebor204
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« Reply #373 on: October 24, 2016, 10:43:06 PM »

The CHP party candidate beat the NDP is the MacLeod by-election in 2014 by 4 votes.

Was that a Federal by-election?

Yep
http://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2014&document=p2&lang=e
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #374 on: October 24, 2016, 10:58:26 PM »

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.
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