Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[136or142]

Thanks for the replies.

[136or142]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

Are you going to post a comparison between this and the Federal Election result later?

[Hatman 🍁]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

Are you going to post a comparison between this and the Federal Election result later?

Maybe, but it usually takes Elections Canada months to publish the poll by poll results, and by that time I lose interest.

[trebor204]

CBC projects that the Conservatives won.

[Boston Bread]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

The Blackfoot reserve not having reported yet is the only thing that can save the NDP from this (minor) embarrassment.

[136or142]

With 209/223 polls reporting the Christian Heritage Party has 666 votes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

With 209/223 polls reporting the Christian Heritage Party has 666 votes.

spooky

[Hatman 🍁]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

The Blackfoot reserve not having reported yet is the only thing that can save the NDP from this (minor) embarrassment.

Except turnout was likely very low (look at the Macleod by-election) and it probably went Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

Are you going to post a comparison between this and the Federal Election result later?

Oops, I guess you were referring to this?:

Glen Motz, Cons. 69.9% (+1.1)
Stan Sakamoto, Lib. 25.6% (+7.7)
Rod Taylor, CHP 2.0%
Bev Waege, NDP 1.0% (-8.6)
Sheldon Johnston, Lbtn. 0.8%   
Kayne Cooper, Rhino. 0.6%   

Swing: 3.3% (Cons. to Liberal)

Turnout: 44.5%

So, Medicine Hat remains fairly inelastic... the Liberal result is fairly underwhelming, but it was their best result here since 1974. Turnout was pretty decent, considering safe Conservative seats in Alberta tend to have low turnouts. I guess people thought it was going to be competitive and came out to stop the Liberals.

[136or142]

I mentioned in my blog post that the NDP may finish behind the CHP.

Are you going to post a comparison between this and the Federal Election result later?

Oops, I guess you were referring to this?:

Glen Motz, Cons. 69.9% (+1.1)
Stan Sakamoto, Lib. 25.6% (+7.7)
Rod Taylor, CHP 2.0%
Bev Waege, NDP 1.0% (-8.6)
Sheldon Johnston, Lbtn. 0.8%   
Kayne Cooper, Rhino. 0.6%   

Swing: 3.3% (Cons. to Liberal)

Turnout: 44.5%

So, Medicine Hat remains fairly inelastic... the Liberal result is fairly underwhelming, but it was their best result here since 1974. Turnout was pretty decent, considering safe Conservative seats in Alberta tend to have low turnouts. I guess people thought it was going to be competitive and came out to stop the Liberals.

Yes, thanks very much.

[DC Al Fine]

Seems in line with the polls. Tories more or less even with 2015, Liberals eat NDP vote.

[Vega]

Hopefully the Liberals candidate (Stan Sakamoto) will have a chance to run for something else. He seems like a good candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe mayor of Medicine Hat? Because that's as far as he's going to get politically unless he runs somewhere else.

[adma]

Interestingly enough, 2011's Lib candidate was the Medicine Hat mayor--which is why the Grits "overperformed" by that election's (and Alberta's) standards (and why the swing to the Grits was shallower than usual here in 2015)

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly enough, 2011's Lib candidate was the Medicine Hat mayor--which is why the Grits "overperformed" by that election's (and Alberta's) standards (and why the swing to the Grits was shallower than usual here in 2015)

Yes, but they still saw some decent swings in the city.

[Vega]

Maybe mayor of Medicine Hat? Because that's as far as he's going to get politically unless he runs somewhere else.

True, or perhaps a Senator. His son will probably have a career though.

[RogueBeaver]

Federal Ottawa-Vanier: Free for all after Mme Belanger decided not to run.

[RogueBeaver]

Couillard has called Marie-Victorin, Saint-Jérome, Arthabaska and Verdun for Dec. 5. All should be incumbent holds.

[Hatman 🍁]

Saint-Jérôme isn't exactly a safe seat, but I agree the PQ has the edge there.

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial Ottawa-Vanier: Tories lead 48/28 in Eastern ON, Grits 3rd provincewide.

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial Ottawa-Vanier: Tories lead 48/28 in Eastern ON, Grits 3rd provincewide.

Do not confuse the very Francophone, urban, working class, and Catholic riding of Ottawa-Vanier with the mostly Anglophone, rural and Protestant rest of Eastern Ontario!

[RogueBeaver]

I know, I still expect Grits to win by about 10 or so but want a riding poll.

[toaster]

Provincial Ottawa-Vanier: Tories lead 48/28 in Eastern ON, Grits 3rd provincewide.

Do not confuse the very Francophone, urban, working class, and Catholic riding of Ottawa-Vanier with the mostly Anglophone, rural and Protestant rest of Eastern Ontario!

I expect the ONDP to do well with Bisson, if he's anything like his brother.  Working-class francophone kind of guy, I could see, especially the Vanier part of the riding, since U of O area already usually favours them.

[Pandaguineapig]

Any chance a Tory win in Ottawa-Vanier leads to Wynne stepping aside?

[RogueBeaver]

Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!