Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Njall]

The Ward 12 by-election in Edmonton should be interesting, if for no other reason than the fact that there are currently 25 declared candidates.  That said, the filing date is in late January, so the actual number of candidates may be less.

Alberta political blogger Dave Cournoyer has pages on his website tracking the candidates for the Calgary-Greenway and Edmonton Ward 12 by-elections.

[Njall]

The filing deadline for the Ward 12 by-election in Edmonton has passed.  There are officially 32 candidates contesting the by-election.

[Njall]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

[Njall]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

None of them won... Moe Banga (a former police detective and director of the police association.) won

http://www.630ched.com/2016/02/22/ward12byelection/
official results: http://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/by-election.aspx

Looks like Banga is/was a CPC'er

[Njall]

The PCs in Calgary-Greenway have appointed a candidate rather then having a nomination meeting. Not sure if that is going to impact their vote, doesn't "look" great.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-appoint-candidate-in-calgary-greenway-bypass-nomination-meeting

Prabhdeep Singh has been appointed, but three others Dan Sidhu, Jamie Lall, and Tushar Yadav had been approved to run.

Didn't see this before, but as an update to the above, Interim Leader Ric McIver reversed the local party board's decision following backlash from the public, party members, and the province-wide party board.  Instead, a proper nomination meeting was organized, and it took place tonight.  In the end, Prabhdeep (Singh) Gill beat out Jamie Lall, Dan Sidhu, and Tushar Yadav for the nomination.

That leaves this list of confirmed candidates for the byelection:
PC: Prabhdeep Gill
NDP: Roop Rai
WRP: Devinder Toor
ALP: Khalil Karbani
Green: Thana Boonlert

[Njall]

Well, Calgary-Greenway definitely turned out to be a close race, but the PCs pulled it off in the end.  It's more than a little embarrassing that the NDP candidate ended up finishing in 4th place, especially since everyone has (at least before this) written off the Alberta Liberals as essentially being irrelevant.

The vast majority of Liberal support came from the community of Taradale, which is in Darshan Kang's federal riding of Calgary Skyview.  The Liberal candidate received 41.6% in Taradale (whereas he received between 8% and 18% in all other areas of the riding), and his support seemed to come from all of the other parties.


Unofficial results:

Prab Gill (PC): 27.7% (-15.3)
Devinder Toor (WRP): 23.7% (+2.9)
Khalil Karbani (LIB): 22.6% (+22.6)
Roop Rai (NDP): 20.2% (-16.0)
Thana Boonlert (GRN): 2.0% (+2.0)
Said Abdulbaki (IND): 1.8% (+1.8 )
Larry Heather (IND): 1.3% (+1.3)
Sukhi Rai (IND): 0.7% (+0.7)

[Njall]

(Neighbourhoods from south to north; maybe Njall can talk about their demos?)

I pulled some quick demographic stats for the neighbourhoods.  The population numbers are from the 2015 civic census.  All other data is from the 2011 federal census and NHS.  In general, the southern neighbourhoods are less well-off and less diverse compared to the northern ones.  All of them are more diverse and more religious than the city at-large.  The southern neighbourhoods also have a much more pronounced Vietnamese presence, while the northern neighbourhoods are more predominantly of Indian/South Asian extraction.

APPLEWOOD PARK
Population: 6,863
Median pre-tax household income: $62,669
Per-cent Immigrant: 44%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• White: 32.3%
• Southeast Asian: 22.3%
• Filipino: 14.3%
• Black: 6.5%
• South Asian: 6.2%

First Language at Home:

• English: 52%
• Non-official Language: 37% (of that, majority is Vietnamese or Tagalog)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 75%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 62%
• Buddhist: 21%
• Muslim: 10%

ABBEYDALE
Population: 6,167
Median pre-tax household income: $67,481
Per-cent Immigrant: 34%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• White: 54.4%
• Southeast Asian: 9.7%
• Black: 7.4%
• Filipino: 6.6%
• South Asian: 6.6%
• Aboriginal: 5.6%

First Language at Home:

• English: 75%
• Non-official Language: 19%
• Multiple: 5%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 71%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 78%
• Muslim: 12%
• Buddhist: 7%

MONTEREY PARK
Population: 10,835
Median pre-tax household income: $78,151
Per-cent Immigrant: 52%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 28.0%
• White: 26.4%
• Southeast Asian: 11.5%
• Chinese: 11.2%
• Filipino: 10.0%

First Language at Home:

• English: 48%
• Non-official Language: 40% (of that, about one-third is Punjabi and one-fifth is Vietnamese)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 83%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 48%
• Sikh: 20%
• Buddhist: 14%

CORAL SPRINGS
Population: 5,853
Median pre-tax household income: $95,536
Per-cent Immigrant: 52%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 45.6%
• White: 15.1%
• Filipino: 11.9%
• Southeast Asian: 7.7%
• Chinese: 7.3%

First Language at Home:

• English: 46%
• Non-official Language: 40% (of which about half is Punjabi)
• Multiple: 14%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 91%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 37%
• Sikh: 37%
• Muslim: 17%

TARADALE
Population: 19,223
Median pre-tax household income: $77,137
Per-cent Immigrant: 55%
Rough Racial Breakdown (those above 5% of population):

• South Asian: 49.5%
• White: 19.5%
• Filipino: 11.4%

First Language at Home:

• English: 39%
• Non-official Language: 49% (of which about half is Punjabi)
• Multiple: 12%

Per-cent with Religious Affiliation: 90%
Top 3 Religious Affiliation (percentages of those with religious affiliation):

• Christian: 38%
• Muslim: 28%
• Sikh: 26%

[Njall]

Calgary Heritage: Lee Richardson is considering running as a Grit. Njall, how would you rate his chances?

Good question. I imagine that he'd be just about the most well-positioned candidate the liberals could hope for here (although his ties to former Premier Redford could be troublesome). The Conservative candidate here, Bob Benzen, was (from what I've been told) the most conservative of the CPC nomination candidates, so that could push a few more moderate voters towards Richardson. That all said, while I certainly imagine he'll narrow the LPC-CPC margin here, I'd refrain from suggesting that he'd have a real shot at winning.