Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Lotuslander]

Some thoughts on these by-elections:

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

- strongest/safest BC NDP seat in BC.

BC Liberal - Gavin Dew
- sacrificial lamb and will likely place 3rd;

BC NDP - Melanie Mark
- worked in the office of the Child and Youth Advocate;
- running aggressive campaign and obvious by-election winner;

BC Green Party - Pete Fry
- only candidate that actually lives in the riding;
- former president of Strathcona Residents Association;
- During November, 2014 Van City municipal election, Fry ran as civic Green and topped polls (first place out of 10 council spots) in the local Strathcona, Mt Pleasant and Commercial Drive neighbourhoods within riding;
- running aggressive campaign;


Coquitlam-Burke Mountain

- suburban, centre-right demographics with high-end demographics in the Westwood Plateau and booming Burke Mountain residential areas;

BC Liberal - Joan Isaacs
- only candidate that actually lives in riding;
- involved in numerous local community groups/organizations;
-running aggressive campaign;


NDP - Jodie Wickens
- Executive director of the Autism Support Network;
- running aggressive campaign;

BC Green Party - Joe Keithley
- ran for the BC NDP nomination here in 2013 but lost;
- known as Joey sh**thead from the band D.O.A.;
- running aggressive campaign;

http://www.tricitynews.com/news/meet-candidates-in-coquitlam-burke-mountain-1.2146959

Historically, incumbent govt's have a poor track record of winning by-elections in B.C.:

1. 1966 - Socred Robert Bonner wins Cariboo by-election;

2. 1981 - Socred Claude Richmond wins Kamloops by-election;
(back then Vancouver Sun political columnist Marjorie Nichols stated that the BC NDP could run a broom in the by-election and still win - riding poll had BC NDP 20 points ahead;

3. 2011 -  Christy Clark wins Vancouver-Point Grey by-election after winning BC Liberal leadership;

4. 2013 - Christy Clark wins Westside-Kelowna by-election;

As for the BC Conservative Party, its leader Dan Brooks recently stepped down - was a volunteer position that did not come with a pay cheque. They have received absolutely ZERO media attention in BC since 2013... recent filings with Elections BC show the party in massive debt... and it's mired in internal in-fighting and lawsuits. As long-time Global BC political reporter recently posted on Twitter: "The BC Cons are just a fringe party".

So back to the by-elections. What I will be looking for:

1. Will the BC Greens increase their popular vote share? And by how much? Will that eat into the BC NDP popular vote share?

2. Will the BC Liberals buck the historical trend and win the C-BM by-election?

The foregoing will have major implications heading toward the May, 2017 BC provincial election methinks.

[Lotuslander]

As I predicted the BC NDP won both by elections. Vancouver Mount Pleasant was a 61-26% blow out over the highly overrated Greens and the liberal got just 10%. In Coquitlam-Burke Mount it looks like an NDP win by about a 45-39% margin. I wonder where "Lotuslander" is these days? In a padded cell bashing his head against the walls?

Haha. As former BC political reporter Stephen Smart tweeted tonight... Lowest voter turnout in 25 years. Looks like C-BM had roughly a 20 percent turnout. Brutal. Will say it again. The BC NDP will have the lowest popular vote share in the 2017 general since 1969. (Aside from the 2001 debacle). And I was bang-on in the 2013 BC general.