Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

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Haha. As former BC political reporter Stephen Smart tweeted tonight... Lowest voter turnout in 25 years. Looks like C-BM had roughly a 20 percent turnout. Brutal. Will say it again. The BC NDP will have the lowest popular vote share in the 2017 general since 1969. (Aside from the 2001 debacle). And I was bang-on in the 2013 BC general.

Ah, Lotuslander; always up with the easy alibis.

(Though he's mild stuff compared to some of those pro-Hillary anti-Sanders types in the Iowa Democratic Caucus results thread)

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Congrats to the BC NDP!
And lol Loutslander. Didn't you have a bet with DL?

He thinks that "it's a low-turnout byelection; but come the general, you just watch" is a good enough alibi.  Even when the bet involves said byelection.

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Mainstreet Whitby-Oshawa: 44-38-13
If this seat is closer than it was in 2014, it is very ominous news for the PCs.

Or a reflection of lingering Trudeaumania lifting the Libs at the expense of the NDP.  After all, the PC share is still 3-4% higher here than in 2014--so for the real "ominous news", look orangeward rather than blueward.

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Well, it's bad news for both the PCs and NDP.
The PCs are not going to win if the NDP are weak and the Liberals are strong in the GTA.
While it's bad news for the NDP that they are doing worse, they can console themselves by saying this wasn't a seat that is competitive for them.

Though in the McGuinty/Wynne-era climate, it really was the Flaherty/Elliott dynamic that kept this firmly in the PC camp more than any "natural" ground base.

Also, when Elliott was herself first byelected in the former Whitby-Ajax, it was with 46% to 42% for former Grit MP Judi Longfield.  So, tight red/blue races aren't at all surprising here.

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Tories have a yuge lead.

And the NDP's much higher (i.e. 17-18% range) than generally expected.

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And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

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And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.

Frankly, if this is a sign of where polling maps are going (an echo of Toronto's present "polling station = polling division" pattern?), it ain't gonna be as much fun following elections in the future...

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Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.

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It makes sense for by-elections at least, knowing they will be low turnout. Why spend more money on staff than they need to? It makes mapping less fun true, but let's be rational here.

Yeah, "rational" like abolishing the mandatory long form census.  Seriously, if the future is one of advance-poll-scaled mega-polling divisions with 1000+ registered voters, how is that supposed to help ground crews or anybody else (including sociologists, urban-studies types, etc) for whom the fine worms-eye electoral detail of sanely-scaled polls is beneficial?  It'd be like suggesting that the only "polling divisions" that matter are the omnibus figures for the neighbourhoods in your W-O profile.  No.  They.  Aren't.

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Interestingly, municipal election polling divisions are also quite large. Again, this is likely due to smaller turnouts.

And of course, I mentioned Toronto in that light, where one polling location = one polling division--however, given that that's a circumstance dating back to Megacity, you can just as well blame Mike Harris-induced "efficiency-minded" dumbing-down for that, with "smaller turnouts" but a convenient scapegoat.

I mean, if that kind of dumbing-down of polling maps is going to inch uphill to the provincial and federal level, than you might as well euthanize it all on behalf of post-FPTP "electoral reform", electronic balloting, etc etc where traditional "polling divisions" no longer much matter, except maybe through postal-code data that'd understandably less accessible to the general public.

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Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

Hillyer was only 41 (sounds like it was a heart attack); Rob Ford was also young at 46. Both were relatively unexpected (Hillyer for sure, that's rather shocking)

And both had a bit of a "worst politician ever" rep (remember Hillyer's "invisible candidacy" in 2011?)

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I think this Toronto Star editorial depicts the underpinning of why the Whitby-Oshawa byelection had so few polling divisions

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2016/05/09/make-an-investment-in-ontarios-democracy-editorial.html

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And in so doing, Elections Ontario, you piece-of-garbage idiots *ruined* any fine-granular-detail value the existing polling-division network had.

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Quite sad, and another reason to hate the Toronto Star.

I wouldn't scapegoat the Star--the editorial don't really dwell on the polling division/subdivision issue, and to be fair, most people other than hardcore electoral statisticians wouldn't twig onto the matter, either.  Not that it *couldn't* be made into a sexy "bring back the long form census" issue, though, esp. with electronic mapping technology making poll-by-poll electoral maps more prevalent and accessible-to-the-public than they've ever been--only to be stomped by this galoomphing Monty Python foot...

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Here's Elections Ontario's official statement

http://www.elections.on.ca/content/dam/NGW/sitecontent/2016/2016-whitby-oshawa-by-election-report/Media%20Release%20for%20Whitby-Oshawa%20By-election%20Report1.pdf?src=Carousel

And again, it's about "efficiencies"; but nothing mentioned specifically about the radical reduction in polling subdivisions--probably because as long as the elections work more smoothly and efficiently than before, people in general are satisfied; that's the operating logic here.  And only the hardcore psephological monomaniacs would be served by maintaining the old polling-subvision system, so it's not (to Elections Ontario) worth dwelling upon.

All in all, it reminds me of the highway downloads and municipal mega-amalgamations run amok during the Harris regime...

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And of course, the ultimate benchmark: Mel Swart running multiple times provincially and federally over a quarter century before finally winning in Welland in 1975.

Besides,  with 30% and second place twice in SRR before this, Neethan Shan is too viable to be dismissed as a mere "perennial candidate".

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Another *potential* provincial byelection (and potential NDP pickup, for that matter): York West.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/06/10/sergio-quitting-wynnes-cabinet-stays-as-mpp.html

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15% is very good for a school board by-election.

Helps that it's downtown rather than suburban.

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This is rather morbid speculation, considering Belanger is still alive. Is there talk of him stepping down?

It's like Layton five summers ago.  We all know, yet discretion demands, etc etc.

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This is rather morbid speculation, considering Belanger is still alive. Is there talk of him stepping down?

I'm not speculating on his death or resignation, I think Bélanger will try to end his term and retire in 2019. It's quite obvious the seat will be open next election, through.

Given how rapid his deterioration's been, I'd be looking into three more months (if even that) rather than three more years for him.  And as everyone knows, the national anthem issue's been a symbolic farewell gesture on his behalf; so if the prognosis is terminal, everything's being "managed".  And I don't think anyone other than the crankier Conservative types is raising a fuss over his non-resignation at this point--Belanger's earned his right to die with his Parliamentary boots on.

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Pandering to immigrant voters.  What happened to the Conservative view of 'If  they want to come here, they should adapt to our ways"

When it comes to the cityburban populace, it morphed into "they're the only hope for our ways", especially after the common urban perception of "whiteness" morphed from blue-collar trash to latte hipsters...

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I kind of figured that "solid third" might be the NDP reality this time--whatever past provincial outcomes, the wounds from the 2015 federal disaster are a bit much to fix in a seat like this...

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A big part of this win is Cho; and I believe as was mentioned the NDP and Liberals look to have split the South Asian vote. BUT this is a by-election, remember Etobicoke-Lakeshore, this is a very similar result; PC wins with very well known Conservative city councillor (Dog Holyday) but they lose at the General election.

Though because of Cho's age, there's no guarantee that he'll be reoffering in the next GE, i.e. this byelection possibly being more of a "demonstration gesture" than anything.  It may all depend on who the PCs have to offer post-Cho that'll determine how the paradigm is shifting.  (And yes, this *is* a case where demographic "diversity" actually helps rather than hinders the Tories these days.)

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The *Green* result is interesting.  (I'm almost wondering about the likelihood of PEI electing a Green government at this rate.)

Incidentally, whither Newmarket Ward 5 (as per the current subject thread title)?

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Though Ottawa-Vanier is a bit of a "on behalf of *whom*?" case--the Grits could still win over a split opposition.

2nd place for the NDP in NW-G is definitely plausible.

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Benzie said something on Twitter about socon revenge, no idea if that's true.

So a Monte McNaughton-cum-Pierre Poilievre case?  (And they all have glasses in common...)