Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[lilTommy]

Of course, now that I've read more about the by-election, my interest is piqued at the prospect of a Neethan Shan victory. He came pretty close to winning the riding in the provincial election for the NDP.

He came second in the City Council race in 2014 as well in Ward 42. Former ONDP President to boot.

[lilTommy]

By elections in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain called for Feb 2. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/premier+picks+metro+vancouver+elections/11632200/story.html

The main candidates: (with links to their party pages)
http://www.cknw.com/2016/01/05/premier-calls-by-elections-for-vancouver-mount-pleasant-coquitlam-burke-mountain/

- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
BC Liberal - Joan Isaacs
NDP - Jodie Wickens
BC Green Party - Joe Keithley

- Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
BC Liberal - Gavin Dew
NDP - Melanie Mark
BC Green Party - Pete Fry

[lilTommy]

Ugh, the Ontario Liberals are just terrible:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/06/kathleen-wynne-radio-ad_n_8923440.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics&ir=Canada+Politics

no by-election called yet and they have radio ads out (is that not illegal?) worse, she is spouting bold. faced. lies about energy (go figure, seeing that the partial privatization by the OLP is supported but almost no one)

[lilTommy]

Hamilton Ward 7
Uzma Qureshi looks to be the de-facto NDP (left-Liberal) candidate; NDP MP Christopherson and NDP MPP Taylor were there and a Liberal Candidate from Hamilton-Mountain

https://twitter.com/Uzmaqk/status/686603936720097280/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=Uzmaqk&utm_content=686603936720097280

List of other candidates I saw so far:
Damin Starr
Tim Gordon
Geraldine McMullen
Hans Zuriel
Robert Bolton
Philip Bradshaw
John-Paul Danko
Doug Farraway
Gregory Lenko
Anthony Nicholl
Howard Rabb

[lilTommy]

Final Results:



Coe, Lorne PC Party of Ontario 17,053 52.92 % 8,188
Roy, Elizabeth Ontario Liberal Party  8,865 27.51 % 
Lundquist, Niki Ontario NDP/NPD 5,172 16.05 % 
Leadbetter, Stacey Green Party of Ontario 529 1.64 % 
Vezina, Greg None of the Above Party (NOTA) 261 0.81 % 
Znoneofthe, Above INDEPENDENT 140 0.43 % 
McEwan, Adam Libertarian 109 0.34 % 
Cuthbert, Garry The People 52 0.16 % 
Thom, Douglas Freedom Party of Ontario 34 0.11 % 
Turmel, John Paupers 11 0.03 %


One of candidates changed his name to Above, Znoneofthe (so he could be the last name on the ballot, as Znoneofthe Above), and one candidate is from the None of the Above Party.
and once again John Turmel lost another election. That's number 88.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

PCs performed better then at the 2014 election (52% vs 40% in 2014); the Liberals (27% vs 31%) and the NDP (16% vs 23%) performed worse.
The PCs 52% is better then Elliot ever managed to get since being elected in 2007. They must be pretty happy.
Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

[lilTommy]

Even thought the NDP lost more of its vote share, the Liberals have to be the big losers here. The resources they threw into the by-election in terms of negative ads, and big names like the new MP and the new PM, and for them to have lost votes. Not a good sign.

I'd say the NDP actually overachieved relative to expectations--it was commonly presumed they were flirting with lost-deposit territory.

Oh, and AFAIK this was John Turmel's lowest vote total, *ever*.

2014 was a high mark for the NDP here just to add to your point; typically their vote was about 10-15% (increasing since 2003); I do remember seeing that they were polling below 10 which is like 99-03 territory for the party. 16%, is pretty decent for the expectations that had been there for the NDPs performance.

[lilTommy]

Sheila Ward, Toronto School Board Trustee in Ward 20 (Toronto Centre) and former Chair has died. She's been a Trustee since 97. By-election likely coming this year I suspect.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sheila-ward-1.3452903

[lilTommy]

Calgary-Greenway will be called for March 22.

NDP has nominated their Candidate for the Calgary-Greenway by-election

Roop Rai - Former Radio host of the Roshni program on Red FM radio station. She is now constituency assistant for MLA Irfan Sabir in the neighbouring Calgary-McCall constituency.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/ndp-nominates-candidate-for-calgary-greenway-byelection

The Greens have nominated Thana Boonlert, an environmental engineer, is a member of the Calgary Climate Action Network and volunteers with the Calgary Drop-In Centre. He was the Federal Candidate in Calgary-Centre (none of Calgary-Greenway in in Federal Calgary-Centre)

[lilTommy]

Today is the big by-election in Edmonton's Ward 12. A record 32 candidates are on the ballot to replace Amarjeet Sohi who was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals.

I know the NDP establishment are backing Nav Kaur. The Tories I believe are endorsing Danisha Bhaloo, while former MP Brent Rathgeber is backing Don Koziak. Another strong candidate will be Laura Thibert, a local Catholic School Board Trustee.

The ward covers the southeastern corner of Edmonton, containing the eastern part of the Mill Woods area and the Ellerslie area. The area has a large Indo-Canadian population.

The area went heavily NDP in last year's provincial election (almost 60%). It's usually a Liberal/PC seat though.

I know that Bhaloo has support from Stephen Mandel, amongst others, but a lot of the Tories that I know are backing Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who was VP Outreach of the PC Party until the by-election was called

None of them won... Moe Banga (a former police detective and director of the police association.) won

http://www.630ched.com/2016/02/22/ward12byelection/
official results: http://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/by-election.aspx

[lilTommy]

The PCs in Calgary-Greenway have appointed a candidate rather then having a nomination meeting. Not sure if that is going to impact their vote, doesn't "look" great.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-appoint-candidate-in-calgary-greenway-bypass-nomination-meeting

Prabhdeep Singh has been appointed, but three others Dan Sidhu, Jamie Lall, and Tushar Yadav had been approved to run.

[lilTommy]

Conservative Former CHCH TV reporter and on-air personality Donna Skelly wont ward 7 by-election due to a split in the left-progressive vote.
John-Paul Danko, was a close second with 1,875. And notably, Uzma Qureshi, who former councillor Scott Duvall and other NDPers aggressively endorsed, came third with 1,521 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/donna-skelly-wins-ward-7-byelection-to-be-newest-city-councillor-1.3501575

just how bad this is going to be "I'm not going to just take the popular side of things," she said. "If it offends people or if it ruffles some feathers, so be it. I think that's what people want in a city councillor." - very Trump and because she already doesn't care about the poor "... Skelly said social housing won't be a priority for her, and Ward 7 already has all it can manage."

[lilTommy]

This could be a very interesting byelection, the NDP was a strong second in Rouge River and their two-time candidate Neethan Shan was just elected to the school board in a municipal byelection...I wonder what recently defeated NDP federal MP Rathika is up to. On the other hand, if Patrick Brown's "outreach" to minorities is bearing any fruit a PC win here would be evidence of that.

Interesting, Normally I'd say Shan would run, since he's been gunning for an elected position in this area since 2010 (provincial, then Toronto City Council now on TDSB, probably kicking himself for not waiting a few months but hindsight eh) BUT Rathika could be a very good candidate for the ONDP if the ONDP is able to attract her to run. Rathika would have name and experience cred; but she dropped to third in 2015; last provincial the NDP took 31% vs 38 for the OLP so they will definitely try for Scarborough-Rouge River

[lilTommy]

Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

Hillyer was only 41 (sounds like it was a heart attack); Rob Ford was also young at 46. Both were relatively unexpected (Hillyer for sure, that's rather shocking)

[lilTommy]

Maureen Macdonald, NDP MLA for Halifax-Needham, is retiring from politics due to health reasons. She was not given any critic roles back when Gary Burrill won the leadership race, so it looks like this was coming. She's been an MLA since 1998. Will Burrill run here, or wait till 2017/2018 and run in his old seat he held 09-13?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/maureen-macdonald-ndp-resign-1.3531491

[lilTommy]

Was saddened to learn of Howard Kaplan's passing.  His son is a neighbor of mine.

And I suspect York Centre won't elect a like-minded trustee to replace him.

two TDSB trustees have recently died, that's unfortunate and odd

[lilTommy]

Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

really? could they not be? the Toronto-Centre one has not been called. Who calls them?

[lilTommy]

Some possible confirmation of why Rathika Jumped to the Liberals, feels like the riding was being "saved" for someone else; On Friday (just seeing this now) Neethan Shan posted on Facebook that he IS indeed going to run for the NDP nomination. He just recently (back in January) won a TDSB by-election, and has run for the NDP in Scarborough-Rouge River 2 twice now.

[lilTommy]

Scarborough-Rouge River: Tories are renominating Cho.

Solid score for the PCs again, came in a very close third in 2014 (LIB 38%, NDP 30% PC 27%)

... "The Scarborough councillor, who ran for the federal New Democratic party in 1988, and later joined the Liberals, surprised many by becoming the riding’s PC candidate in 2014." He's all over the place.
If Rathika wins the NDP nomination, all three main party candidates will have at one point run for the NDP

[lilTommy]

Scarborough-Rouge River: NDP nominating a perennial candidate.

You know sometimes these perennial candidates eventually hit the jackpot. Wayne Gates had run and lost for the NDP in Niagara Falls quite a few times before finally winning the byelection in 2014 and then getting re-elected in the general election!

federally Dan Harris won 2011 In Scarborough Southwest, he ran half a dozen times before being elected, before being knocked off by Bill-weed-is-still-a-crime-Blair

[lilTommy]

Ottawa-Vanier: Madeleine Meilleur is quitting politics. Plum seat for a star Francophone candidate...

A move to run in Ottawa-Vanier federally to replace Mauril Belanger once he is force to step down due to health?

[lilTommy]

Ahh cool, a by-election in Ottawa. Should be fun

If the NDP were to win a majority government, they'd probably win Ottawa-Vanier, but they're not near that right now. A star candidate might make things interesting. The riding does include some of the most left wing parts of the city (Sandy Hill & Lower Town).

The NDP would need a STAR candidate to win, this is a pretty solid Liberal riding, the NDP has done well in the past but no so much on the Provincial side, the best was about 20% in 2011, but dropped to 13% in 2014. Federall in 2011 the NDP hit almost 30%, 20% last year with a relatively strong candidate.
-Mathieu Fleury - the Councillor for Rideau-Vanier, he seems progressive he might be a NDPer or a Liberal... not sure
-Erica Braunovan - Trustee for Zone 10 - volunteered for the NDP before might be a possibility but her French would have to be great, and I believe she lives in Centretown (Ottawa Centre)
-Emilie Taman - 2015 Fed candidate.

[lilTommy]

In the underwhelming battle of the backed progressives for the TDSB by-election in Toronto Centre-Rosedale, Chris Moise won.
Moise was backed by both NDP aligned Councillors Pam McConnell and Kristyn Wong-Tam and unions OSSTF and CUPE. On the other side Li Koo was the Liberal, supported by MPP Glen Murray, MP Chrystia Freeland, as a former TDSB chair and MPP Donna Cansfield.

Moise - 36%
Koo - 28%
http://election.toronto.ca/epr2014/eprDetail.do?114 - Turnout was low, as to be expected. 15% or so if I did the math right.

https://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2016/06/20/chris-moise-elected-new-toronto-centre-rosedale-trustee.html

[lilTommy]

That's what Brown says in the letter. Then again, this whole by-election has been strangely sleepy in the media.

Surprisingly so yes. But this is the summer and we just had the Olympics so the media tunned out. I saw two news story's on CityTv (one was about the local cable debate last week) It's probably because no matter who wins it won't really change the impact of Queens Park, the Liberals will still have a majority. Not like the KW by-election a few years back.

But, with a longtime City Councillor and a School Board Trustee running you think there will be more coverage.

[lilTommy]

All polls reporting

Halifax-Needham
Total Votes: 4,942
NDP, Lisa Roberts: 2,519, 50.9%
Lib: Rob Wilson: 1,662, 33.7%
P.C Andy Arsenault, 600
Green: Thomas Trappenberg 161

This is a surprisingly good result for the NDP, and they all can breath now the party is only polling about 18% province wide, and this is about a 6% increase vs 2013. More notably though about a 7% decrease for the Liberals. The NDP surprised most, as noted above, when they won the Dartmouth by-election so this bodes well for the NDP in the Capital. The new leader Gary Burrill is also going to run in Halifax Chebucto; this win (which is really just a retention) shows that the NDPs best hopes of rebuilding is in HRM.

[lilTommy]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

True, although we should note that the Tories are doing much, much better among Chinese-Canadians and worse among well off whites than they were in the Harris era.

A big part of this win is Cho; and I believe as was mentioned the NDP and Liberals look to have split the South Asian vote. BUT this is a by-election, remember Etobicoke-Lakeshore, this is a very similar result; PC wins with very well known Conservative city councillor (Dog Holyday) but they lose at the General election.
PC +11%, NDP -4%, Liberal -10% - Looks like about a 30% turnout (25K votes cast)