Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

Discuss by-elections of all levels: Federal, provincial, municipal.

There are several provincial vacancies at the moment, none have by-election dates set that I know of:

- Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, BC
- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, BC
- Calgary-Greenway, AB
- Whitby-Oshawa, ON
- Chicoutimi, QC

Have I forgotten any?

Some notable municipal by-elections coming up, almost all caused by people being elected in last October's federal election:

- January 18: Mayor of Brooks, Alberta (vacated when mayor Martin Shields was elected to parliament for the riding of Bow River)
- January 23: Councillor for District 6 in Halifax, NS (vacated when cllr Darren Fisher was elected to parliament for the riding of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
- January 25: Councillor for Ward 1 in Pickering, ON (vacated when cllr Jennifer O'Connell was elected to parliament for the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge)
- January 31: Councillor for District 6 in Granby, QC (vacated upon the resignation of cllr Serges Ruel)
- February 1: Councillor for Ward 2 in Sault Ste. Marie, ON (vacated when cllr Terry Sheehan was elected to parliament for the riding of Sault Ste. Marie)
- February 1: Councillor for Ward 7 in Barrie, ON (vacated when cllr John Brassard was elected to parliament for the riding of Barrie-Innisfil)
- February 14: Councillor for District 8 in Longueuil, QC (vacated upon the death of cllr Albert Beaudry)
- February 22: Councillor for Ward 12 in Edmonton, AB (vacated when cllr Amarjeet Sohi was elected to parliament for the riding of Edmonton Mill Woods)
- March 6: Mayor of Loarraine, QC (vacated when mayor Ramez Ayoub was elected to parliament for the riding of Therese-De Blainville)
- March 21: Councillor for Ward 7 in Hamilton, ON (vacated when cllr Scott Duvall was elected to parliament for the riding of Hamilton Mountain)

That's all I could find, for now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Poirot. Those by-elections weren't listed on Elections Quebec.

There will be a territorial by-election on February 8 in the riding of Netsilik in Nunavut following the resignation of MLA Jeannie Ugyuk.

[Hatman 🍁]

The by-election to replace Shaun Chen (new Liberal MP for Scarborough North) as the Toronto District School Board trustee for Ward 21 (Scarborough-Rouge River) will take place on Monday, January 25.

There are 20 candidates running for the position.

I was aware of this, but I purposely omitted school board elections.

What I don't get is that Toronto eschews by-elections for city council (the most important city council in the country), but has no problem holding by-elections for school board? Nobody cares about school board elections, and no one - not even me - would care if they just appointed someone to fill out the rest of the term.

My experience reading up on past school board by-elections is that turnout is nearly non existent.  A trustee by-election in Calgary last year had a 5% turnout and one this fall in Chilliwack had a turnout of 3%. There are other examples I'm sure, but that is what I found from a quick Google search.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, now that I've read more about the by-election, my interest is piqued at the prospect of a Neethan Shan victory. He came pretty close to winning the riding in the provincial election for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the super low turnout will help him. He probably has a certain degree of personal popularity, which helps in these sorts of situations.

[Hatman 🍁]

I gather the BC Conservatives will not be contesting?

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sure the Tories will hold it. Kathleen Wynne may be less popular than even Selinger at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll of Whitby-Oshawa:

Lorne Coe (PC): 37%
Elizabeth Roy (Lib): 29%
Niki Lundquist (NDP): 6%

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/whitby-oshawa-byelection-shaping-up-to-be-a-two-way-race-between-liberals-and-tories

[Hatman 🍁]

Because I love low energy municipal by-elections...

Brooks mayoral by-election is today (following previous mayor Martin Shields' election to the House of Commons).

Brooks is a city of ~15,000 in Southern Alberta between Calgary and Medicine Hat.

The city is very conservative. It overwhelmingly voted for the Wildrose Party in last year's provincial election, and it voted overwhelmingly Tory in the 2011 federal election, and presumably in 2015 too, since the mayor was the candidate. In 2012, the city was split between Wildrose and the PCs.

Shields was first elected mayor in 2007 when it was an open seat, defeating Carol Secondiak 57% to 43%. In 2010 he was re-elected with 86% of the vote, defeating Patrick Ketchmark. In 2013, he won 72% of the vote, defeating two other candidates.

The by-election will feature  city councillor Barry Morish**ta against lawyer Sarah Bisbee. There will also be a council by-election to fill Morish**ta's seat, as he resigned in order to run.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gotta love the censors. That should be Barry Morishita

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP candidates finish 1-2, good news!

Especially considering the district went heavily Liberal in the last provincial election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, that district has been held by Liberals recently

Recent results:

2012: future Liberal MP Darren Fisher def. NDP MLA Jerry Pye 69%-31%
2009 by-election: Darren Fisher wins
2008: future Liberal MLA Andrew Younger acclaimed
2004: Younger def. councillor Brian Warshick 52%-44%

[Hatman 🍁]

Pickering's Ward 1 by-election is today.

Pickering is the city immediately east of Toronto. The city has three wards, each represented by a city and a (Durham) regional councillor. Ward 1 is located in the southwest corner of the city, bordering Toronto. It normally votes Liberal provincially and federally, but went Conservative in the 2011 federal election.

The ward was represented on city and regional council by Jennifer O'Connell until she was elected to parliament (for the Liberals) in last October's federal election in the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge. She represented Ward 1 from 2006 to 2015. In the 2014 municipal election, she was easily re-elected with 72% of the vote against four other candidates.  The ward's city councillor, Kevin Ashe has taken over her spot on regional council as well, so the vacancy will be for the city council position.

Past election results:
2014: O'Connell def. Nick Tsetsakos 72% to 9% and three other candidates
2010: O'Connell def. regional councillor Bonnie Littley 55% to 45%
2006: O'Connell def. Kevin Ashe 45% to 43% for city council; Littley def. Maurice Brenner for regional council.

There are 12 candidates running, including former councillors Maurice Brenner and Peter Rodrigues

[Hatman 🍁]

The whole city of Pickering has just three city councillors?

No, each ward has a city and regional councillor. Each regional councillor also sits on city council, so there is a total of 6 councillors, plus the mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forgot about that by-election for the Toronto District School Board, filling the vacancy that was created when Liberal Shaun Chen was elected to the House of Commons for the riding of Scarborough North.

NDPer Neethan Shan won in a landslide, defeating 19 candidates:

Neethan Shan, 4197 (53.6%)
Jack Wang 1258 (16.1%)

Results: http://election.toronto.ca/epr2014/eprDetail.do?121#1453780182280

The boundaries of the district are basically the old Scarborough-Rouge River riding, where Shan has run for the NDP in the past. Turnout was 7826, which is probably around 9%.

[Hatman 🍁]

The race in Pickering turned out to be a bit of a clusterf**k:

Former councillor Maurice Brenner won with just 21.6% of the vote, defeating realtor Lisa Robinson by just 50 votes:

Maurice Brenner: 712 (21.6%)
Lisa Robinson: 662 (20.0%)
Chris van der Vliet: 472 (14.3%)
Gary Hugh Strange: 462 (14.0%)
Lisa McFarland: 316 (9.6%)
Peter Rodrigues: 275 (8.3%)
6 other candidates: 404 (12.2%)

Results: http://www.pickering.ca/en/cityhall/2016UnofficialWard1By-ElectionResults.asp
So now Pickering will have an all male city council.

[Hatman 🍁]

District 6 of Granby btw covers the western part of the downtown.  Map: http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/municipal/cep-2013/47017-E-F01.pdf

2013 results:
Serges Ruel: 648 (29.89%)
Alain Menard: 626 (28.87%)
Annie Premont: 515 (23.75%)
Lise Des greniers: 379 (17.48%)

The districts supports the CAQ provincially. Even in 2008 when the ADQ just barely won the riding, District 6 voted for them.

Federally, Granby is in the riding of Shefford which went Liberal in 2015. In 2011, District 6 voted NDP. Before that the district backed the BQ, even in 2000 when the riding went Liberal. In 1997, the PCs won the district and the riding as a whole.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two municipal by-elections today in Ontario.

> Sault Ste. Marie, Ward 2
- Vacated when Terry Sheehan was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals
- Sault Ste. Marie has 6 wards, each represented by two councillors. Ward 2's  lone sitting councillor is Susan Myers.
- There are 9 candidates running. One of them, Sandra Hollingsworth (a former banking strategist) has been perceived as being endorsed by Myers (causing a minor controversy). Another candidate is Jody Curran who is a past councillor for the ward and is a reporter for the Sault Star. A third candidate is John Duke, who ran in 2014, finishing third.
- Ward 2 covers the eastern half of the downtown (map: http://www.saultstemarie.ca/Cityweb/media/City-Clerk/WardBoundariesMap.pdf)
- Politically, the ward (and indeed much of eastern Sault Ste. Marie) has been a weak area for the NDP. Provincially it votes Liberal. Federally it went Tory in 2011 and maybe also in 2008.
- 2014 results:
* Terry Sheehan: 3,178 (elected)
* Susan Myers: 2,481 (elected)
* John Duke: 1,450
* Michael Selvers: 340

[Hatman 🍁]

> Barrie, Ward 7
- Vacated when John Brassard was elected to the House of Commons for the Conservatives
- Barrie has 10 wards, each represented by a single councillor
- There are 13 candidates running (13 on the ballot, one dropped out).
- Candidates include former councillor Andrew Prince, Barrie Colts play by play announcer Craig Ripley, Libertarian perennial candidate Darren Roskam and perennial independent candidate Ram Faerber (ran in the federal election; received 188 votes)
- Ward 7 covers the southwest corner of the city, consisting of some brand new subdivisions, and the older community of Holly. (Map: http://www.barrie.ca/City%20Hall/election/Documents/Barrie%202014%20Ward%20Structure%20Map.pdf)
- Politically the ward normally backs the Tories. In the 2014 provincial election it appears to have gone Liberal though, as did the riding of Barrie. Federally, it has gone Tory since 2004. Before that, there wasn't very many people living in the ward (only 3 polls, two of which went Liberal in 2000).
- 2014 results:
*John Brassard: 1,779 (elected)
*Lincoln Bayda: 252
*Brandon Vieira: 208
*Andrew Barranger: 85
*Richard Crocitto: 40

[Hatman 🍁]

Once again, the candidate who gets the key endorsement (or in this case a perceived endorsement) wins:

Sault Ste. Marie, Ward 2:

Sandra Hollingsworth: 767 (27%) - elected
Luke Dufour: 636 (22%)
Susan Milne: 427 (15%)
Jody Curran: 382 (13%)
Les Weeks: 336 (12%)
John Duke: 148 (5%)
David Poluck: 116 (4%)
Ron Schinners: 30 (1%)
Andy Martens: 14 (<1%)

Turnout: 30%

Barrie, Ward 7

Andrew Prince: 362 (23%) - elected
Craig Ripley: 307 (19%)
Gary Harvey: 222 (14%)
Jane Dewar: 196 (12%)
Jim Hosick: 122 (8%)
Mike Montague: 109 (7%)
Doug Jure: 108 (7%)
Randy H. Starr: 107 (7%)
5 Other candidates: 74 (5%)

Turnout: 18%

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent news!

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe so, but it's good politics for the very unpopular OLP. I suspect this will help the OLP more than it brings down Trdueau's reputation.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Nunavut riding of Netsilik went to the polls last night in a by-election to replace Jeannie Ugyuk, who resigned following a motion of no confidence in her. The riding consists of the two hamlets of Taloyoak and and Kuugaaruk at the base of the Boothia Peninsula in the central part of the territory.

Results:
Emilino Qirngnuq: 137 (31%) - elected
Tars Angutingunirk: 116 (26%)
John Ningark: 65 (15%)
Wesley Totalik Sr: 64 (15%)
Joseph Quqqiaq: 57 (13%)

Qirngnuq won Kugaaruk while Totalik won Taloyoak (he only received 4 votes in Kugaaruk).

Qingnuq if a former manager of the Kugaaruk co-op.

Turnout was 69% in Kugaaruk and 51% in Taloyoak, which is actually the larger community but had fewer voters.

For the record, both communities went overwhelmingly Tory in the 2011 federal election, but went Liberal as recently as 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/whitby-oshawa-by-election-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.