How big a deal would it be for Romney to endorse Rubio before NH?

[Likely Voter]

Everyone keeps talking about how the NH primary has too many establishment/moderate candidates splitting the vote, allowing Trump to dominate with his 25%. Even Cruz has a chance to get into 2nd place with a strong IA win. So could a high profile endorsement from the guy who won NH the last two times and was the party nominee last time make a difference? 

Romney doesn't like and/or believe in Christie (see VP vetting leaks) and he has shown no love for Bush and a new article in WaPo reports that Romney told Jeb he can't win.

Mitt seriously thought about getting into the 2012 race so he is interested and I think wants to at least play kingmaker. The one place he can do that (and the one place that seems to need it the most) is New Hampshire.   

And the reason I think it will be Rubio is what Mitt said when he announced he wouldn't run...

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Thoughts?

[Progressive]

I think it would push Rubio toward second place, but not necessarily decisively toward first. I really think Kasich should drop out, back Rubio, and help deliver the maybe high single-digits he had to Rubio.

[The Other Castro]

Romney definitely has a soft spot for Rubio, but his newfound elder statesmen role may prevent him from endorsing someone in the same way that Obama is prevented from endorsing someone. He'll probably be trying to pull some strings behind the scenes though.

[pho]

It would help Rubio with the voters who are already considering him, but wouldn't expand his coalition much. At best, it may convince a few Bush people to abandon ship.

[Senator Cris]

I don't think he'll endorse Rubio before NH.
He is a good Christie friend.
When asked about Rubio, he said "don't forget Christie and others".
Christie actively campaigned for Romney in the primary, not just in the general election. Rubio endorsed him in late March.

[Torie]

One safe assumption is that Mittens will not be endorsing Jeb.

[Mister Mets]

It would be worth a few points, which could be decisive given the crowded race for second place, and the advantages of a positive news story at this juncture.

[yankeesfan]

I think that it's actually likely that Romney and McCain will coordinate endorsements to push one of the establishment forward.  It'll be seen as a signal that the Establishment is ready to coalesce around one candidate.   

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm leaning more towards Romney endorsing Christie rather than Rubio. The "Establishment" needs to coalesce around someone soon to have a fighting chance against Trump and Cruz

[Mr. Illini]

It would be big. Romney is seen as a spokesperson for the moderate wing of the party and it would cement Rubio as being that candidate in this election - in the present he is just flirting with that role.

[Broken System]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/11/21/gop-voters-would-prefer-romney/WiU9f86jd19UkXYQfb2yxM/story.html

This poll back in November shows that Romney is highly respected in New Hampshire. Yet, we can still assume that an endorsement may not be as powerful as Romney himself running. Let's see who lost the most support with Romney in the race.

Trump 22-15 (-7)
Rubio 11-6 (-5)
Carson 10-7 (-3)
Cruz 9-7 (-2)
Kasich 9-6 (-3)
Bush 8-3 (-5)
Fiorina 4-3 (-1)
Christie 4-2 (-2)
Paul 3-2 (-1)

As we can see, the establishment candidates lose the highest percentage of their voters in a Romney run. Now I will make a prediction using current polling averages.

Trump 26
Rubio 13
Cruz 12
Christie 11
Kasich 10
Bush 8
Carson 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 4

Romney endorses Rubio.

Trump 24 (-2)
Rubio 24 (+11)
Cruz 11 (-1)
Christie 9 (-2)
Kasich 7 (-3)
Carson 5
Bush 5 (-3)
Fiorina 5
Paul 4

In the end, it makes it a very close race. Nonetheless, there are many factors not considered in this prediction. Carson and Fiorina continue to decline. Christie continues to gain respect in New Hampshire and therefore gives Rubio a ceiling. Iowa dropouts. In the end, still a very volatile and unpredictable race.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Pretty big, but it would be a bigger deal in Nevada.

[PresidentTRUMP]

If Romney and McCain endorsed Rubio in NH 2-3 weeks before that primary and hit the campaign trail around NH, I believe he would win the state and most likely ride the momentum of that to the nomination fairly easily.

A Rubio win in NH could send him on to easily win the nomination.

This becomes a real slugfest and dirty fight to the end tho if Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins NH and SC and Rubio wins Nevada. If that happens things could get ugly and quick.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It would help, but it won't be decisive.  If Jeb were to drop out and endorse Rubio, that might be different.

[bigedlb]

Endorsements schmendorsements....  Little impact.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm leaning more towards Romney endorsing Christie rather than Rubio. The "Establishment" needs to coalesce around someone soon to have a fighting chance against Trump and Cruz

I agree with this as well.  Doing so would give Romney more of a "kingmaker" posture than if he endorsed Rubio, who already has some traction with the Establishment.

[Mike Thick]

It would help quite a bit. If he endorsed, I imagine he would endorse Rubio.

[JMT]

I think it's possible Romney may endorse Rubio before NH to get the establishment to strongly back Rubio in an attempt to stop Trump in NH. But it's unlikely this occurs, because Romney is also friendly with Christie. But I think Trump still wins NH, because Rubio, Christie, and Kasich will all still be in the race till NH, and this splits the establishment vote and allows Trump to win NH. At this point, the establishment gets nervous after a Cruz win in IA and Trump win in NH, so the establishment, including Romney, most likely will endorse either Christie or Rubio; deciding which of the two to endorse will depend on who performs better in NH. But in the end, Romney endorses either Christie or Rubio after the NH primary. That's my prediction.