Which Republican is most likely to beat expectations in Iowa?
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  Which Republican is most likely to beat expectations in Iowa?
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Poll
Question: Which Republican is most likely to beat expectations in Iowa?
#1
Cruz
 
#2
Trump
 
#3
Carson
 
#4
Rubio
 
#5
Bush
 
#6
Kasich
 
#7
Christie
 
#8
Huckabee
 
#9
Santorum
 
#10
Paul
 
#11
Fiorina
 
#12
Gilmore
 
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Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: Which Republican is most likely to beat expectations in Iowa?  (Read 1141 times)
pho
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« on: January 04, 2016, 01:34:15 PM »
« edited: January 04, 2016, 01:39:25 PM by pho »

I think it's Rand Paul. I don't believe that Cruz has completely soaked up the 21% that Ron Paul won in 2012 or, perhaps more appropriately, the 10% who voted for Ron Paul in 2008 before the tea party and the establishment vs outsider narrative were things. I wouldn't be shocked if Rand finished 4th or 5th with 7-9% of the vote.
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couchpotato07
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2016, 01:38:14 PM »

Cruz very close to Paul
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2016, 01:43:00 PM »

In terms of over performance but now necessarily raw performance, I'll say Huckabee after finishing in 5th. It still won't be enough for him though, and he'll drop out.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2016, 06:15:06 PM »

Rand by far. Students for Rand has thousands of people in Iowa that rarely ever get polled. I think Rand will get 6-9%. Rand has an enthusiastic base of support that will show up to vote but be underrepresented in the polling. Also, Rands attacks on Cruz could effectively bring back some Ron Paul Ted Cruz supporters.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2016, 06:58:10 PM »

Trump. So many people are writing this off for Cruz when polls seem to show them about tied. I hope Cruz gets it and not Trump but his lead isn't as big as the media and this forum seem to act like it is.
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🦀🎂🦀🎂
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2016, 07:24:44 PM »

Perhaps Santorum will get a lil nostalgia bump.
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Broken System
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2016, 07:28:15 PM »

I think every candidate will get around where they are polling, but Santorum may get around 5%, which will be far greater than anyone expected.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2016, 07:37:22 PM »

I don't know at this point but I want Iowa to come very soon, I can't wait at all. I especially want a Cruz Victory.
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useful idiot
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2016, 07:39:33 PM »

I'm going to go with Rubio. I think there are enough Republicans out there who aren't going to buy into the goods that Cruz and Trump are selling, and want to pull the lever (I know its a caucus, but still) for a normal candidate. Bush is too old hat and Christie isn't non-Northeastern enough, so I'm thinking Rubio is the likeliest. I think a strong third showing gives him a boost to separate himself from the other establishment candidates in NH
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defe07
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2016, 07:40:06 PM »

I think it's Rand Paul. I don't believe that Cruz has completely soaked up the 21% that Ron Paul won in 2012 or, perhaps more appropriately, the 10% who voted for Ron Paul in 2008 before the tea party and the establishment vs outsider narrative were things. I wouldn't be shocked if Rand finished 4th or 5th with 7-9% of the vote.

I see a strong Cruz victory and maybe, just maybe, Rand could finish 3rd if his ground game exceeds expectations. Wink
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2016, 07:53:36 PM »

Maybe Carson?  People don't expect him to do well, so maybe it won't be hard for him to beat expectations.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2016, 08:07:02 PM »

I say Trump is going to make a surprise victory, and exceed all polls.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2016, 08:32:10 PM »

Possible that The Big Man could surprise
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defe07
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« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2016, 10:23:55 PM »

Possible that The Big Man could surprise

Which one? Trump? Christie? Tongue
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Why
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2016, 10:26:51 PM »

Huckabee or Santorum in the unlikely event they get a surge.

Cruz if Trump under performs the polling and Cruz gains from that.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2016, 10:51:27 PM »

I'm guessing Huckabee.

He won in 2008, and is currently at three percent. He stands to benefit from the fighting between Cruz and Trump, as well as the Republicans trying to be the establishment choice in New Hampshire (Jeb, Christie, Rubio, Kasich.)
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cxs018
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« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2016, 10:53:12 PM »

Jeb!
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2016, 11:04:27 PM »

Marco!
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2016, 12:51:53 AM »

Cruz could easily win by 10+
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Kevin
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2016, 02:33:56 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2016, 11:09:43 PM by Kevin »

I think Cruz will win overall,

but I could see Paul, Huckabee, and maybe Rubio beating expectations and could do fairly well. Ex. like 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place.
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Enduro
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« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2016, 03:45:40 PM »

I agree with what you said about Rand, but there is also the fact that of Gilmore gets any votes he'll beat expectations.
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