Predict the GOP Nominee
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Poll
Question: Who do you think will be the GOP Nominee?
#1
Donald Trump		  
#2
Ted Cruz		  
#3
Marco Rubio		  
#4
Ben Carson		  
#5
Chris Christie		  
#6
Jeb Bush		  
#7
Rand Paul		  
#8
Carly Fiorina		  
#9
Mike Huckabee		  
#10
John Kasich		  
#11
Rick Santorum		  
#12
Jim Gilmore		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 107

Author Topic: Predict the GOP Nominee  (Read 2831 times)
Former Senator Haslam2020
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« on: January 05, 2016, 10:40:54 AM »
It's convention night. Boom. He/she walks out under the lights and is nominated for president. Who will that person be?
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2016, 05:31:06 PM »
Cruz. The electorate will force the establishment to compromise.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2016, 06:06:58 PM »
I'm on the fence between Trump and Cruz, since they have the clearest shot at taking a majority of states (and delegates) on Super Tuesday, and thus gaining all of the bandwagon support that often comes with a Super Tuesday win. If an establishment candidate can win New Hampshire maybe they'll have a decent chance, but I'm doubtful that that will happen now, given the circular firing squad taking place there between Rubio, Bush, and Christie.

I ended up voting Cruz, fwiw.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2016, 06:09:32 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2016, 06:11:40 PM by bigedlb »
Of course I will say TRUMP!   BTW new Reuters poll Trump 41.7  Cruz 16.7 Carson 10.6 Rubio 8.2
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2016, 06:37:31 PM »
Trump.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2016, 06:43:58 PM »
Quote from: TarHeelDem on January 05, 2016, 05:31:06 PM
Cruz. The electorate will force the establishment to compromise.

Absolutely!

I'm amazed that this isn't obvious to all.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2016, 07:01:41 PM »
Cruz.
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standwrand
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2016, 07:08:08 PM »
A brokered convention is imminent. There's no way Trump will win enough states and Cruz will eventually fade just like Santorum in 2012. Rubio will emerge as the establishment candidate once Jeb & Christie drop out; at the convention Rubio will be chosen to be the nominee.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2016, 07:10:31 PM »
Quote from: standwrand on January 05, 2016, 07:08:08 PM
A brokered convention is imminent. There's no way Trump will win enough states and Cruz will eventually fade just like Santorum in 2012. Rubio will emerge as the establishment candidate once Jeb & Christie drop out; at the convention Rubio will be chosen to be the nominee.

If Cruz fades then that would seem to guarantee a Trump win.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2016, 07:10:37 PM »
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on January 05, 2016, 06:43:58 PM
Quote from: TarHeelDem on January 05, 2016, 05:31:06 PM
Cruz. The electorate will force the establishment to compromise.

Absolutely!

I'm amazed that this isn't obvious to all.

Because what power does the establishment even have in this nomination process?
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standwrand
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2016, 07:16:01 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on January 05, 2016, 07:10:31 PM
Quote from: standwrand on January 05, 2016, 07:08:08 PM
A brokered convention is imminent. There's no way Trump will win enough states and Cruz will eventually fade just like Santorum in 2012. Rubio will emerge as the establishment candidate once Jeb & Christie drop out; at the convention Rubio will be chosen to be the nominee.

If Cruz fades then that would seem to guarantee a Trump win.

Trump doesn't have high enough favorabliity ratings to garner wins in larger states like California. If Cruz fades it leaves only Rubio left to take over and become a John Kerry. Trump will diffuse himself, just like Howard Dean in '04
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RI
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2016, 07:28:50 PM »
As long as the news continues to be dominated by ISIS, terrorism, Syrian refugees, marauding Arab rape gangs, etc., Trump will win. He is the zeitgeist candidate of our time.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2016, 08:51:01 PM »
Trump.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2016, 09:00:56 PM »
TRUMP or Cruz. There are only two other candidates who even have an outside chance.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2016, 09:57:29 PM »
Although the possibility that the establishment could rally around Ted Cruz continues to amaze me, he seems to be the most likely nominee at this point.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2016, 10:02:36 PM »
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2016, 07:12:17 AM »
Donald John TRUMP.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2016, 09:57:53 AM »
It will be Cruz, but he can be beaten along with Jeb or Trump. Rubio or Kasich are the heavyweights.
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Penelope
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« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2016, 11:38:43 AM »
Kind of astonished that people are now actually gravitating to Cruz being the GOP nominee. Especially hilarious is the idea that Cruz, a guy who is now apparently running to the right of Trump on immigration (lol), is going to win over establishment Republicans by merely not being Trump. If it comes down to a close race between Trump and Cruz, the establishment will just give up and take it to the convention.

Ultimately, that won't happen, though. Most of Cruz's support comes from people who would probably be at least content with a Trump nomination, anyway. It's gonna be the guy who has had massive amounts of support since he entered and is maintaining almost continuous media coverage of his campaign.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2016, 12:25:53 PM »
When Trump started to lead they said Jeb would eventually beat him...
When Trump continued to lead they said Walker would eventually surge and beat him...
When Trump continued to lead after Walker was a joke they said Carson would win...
When Carson lead for like two seconds in Iowa they said "AHA" we told you so...
When Trump went out and called Iowa stupid they jizzed in their pants because now for real Trump was finished...
When Trump again started to lead they said Rubio would beat him...
When Trump continued to lead they said Cruz would evetually beat him...
When Cruz lead for like two seconds in Iowa they said "AHA" we told you so...

It's going to be Trump. With 90% certainty, it's going to be Trump. Stop deluding yourself.
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DS0816
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« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2016, 12:34:41 PM »
How do people imagine the electoral map would shake out in terms of the primaries? Which states carry for which Republican hopefuls?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2016, 12:52:47 PM »
My odds:

Cruz: 50%
Trump: 35%
Rubio: 10%
Christie: 3%
Romney: 2%
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2016, 01:46:28 PM »
Rubio- 55%
Cruz- 30%
Christie- 15%
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2016, 01:51:25 PM »
Cruz
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defe07
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« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2016, 03:18:33 PM »
I still think Trump and Cruz will team up and will go after the beltway picks one by one. There could be a dark horse who overperforms and does much better than what polls say but it's Trump's or Cruz's to lose and they could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they're not careful.
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