NY-03: Steve Israel retiring

[smoltchanov]

FWIW, Cook has the seat as tossup, Rothenberg as Tilt Dem, and Sabato as tossup.

Agree. With all three...

[mds32]

With the Nassau machine here I think they will pick the right candidate that could potentially win the district. With Clinton at the top of the ballot I don't know what to say here. Tilt D perhaps?

[Torie]

With the Nassau machine here I think they will pick the right candidate that could potentially win the district. With Clinton at the top of the ballot I don't know what to say here. Tilt D perhaps?

Some of it might have to do with whether of not the Jewish Pub trend in the area persists.

[rob in cal]

  Israel mentioned that campaign fundraising and the hassle that it was as a big reason for his retirement.  He did win his seat by 9 points in a big GOP year in 2014, so I wonder what would have happened had he slacked off on fundraising in terms of keeping his seat both then and in future elections.

[Smash255]

As perNewsday (behind a paywall), Suozzi is going to jump in and make an announcement tomorrow.

[Smash255]

With the Nassau machine here I think they will pick the right candidate that could potentially win the district. With Clinton at the top of the ballot I don't know what to say here. Tilt D perhaps?

GOP machine has had a few issues here of late  Skelos's conviction (granted he is out of the district, but a big part of the machine) combined with the ethics issues hounding both Mangano and Venditto (who needed a recount to hold on to his Supervisor seat in very Republican TOB) with ongoing investigations

[Cubby]

NY-01's congressman is Lee Zeldin, not altschuler.

Sorry I forgot to respond to this earlier

I know Altschuler isn't the rep. I didn't know that the guy's name was Zeldin, so I called him "Altschuler Junior".

 

As perNewsday (behind a paywall), Suozzi is going to jump in and make an announcement tomorrow.

OMG! That is the best news I've heard in days. Suozzi is awesome, he never should have been defeated in 2009. I remember when he first got elected Nassau County Exec. in 2001, after Gulotta had run the place into the ground.

Newsday's paywall is awful. You can't use the website at all.

[Smash255]

NY-01's congressman is Lee Zeldin, not altschuler.

Sorry I forgot to respond to this earlier

I know Altschuler isn't the rep. I didn't know that the guy's name was Zeldin, so I called him "Altschuler Junior".

 

As perNewsday (behind a paywall), Suozzi is going to jump in and make an announcement tomorrow.

OMG! That is the best news I've heard in days. Suozzi is awesome, he never should have been defeated in 2009. I remember when he first got elected Nassau County Exec. in 2001, after Gulotta had run the place into the ground.

Newsday's paywall is awful. You can't use the website at all.

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.

[Cubby]

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.

Its been a few years, but the only reason I can recall for Suozzi losing in 2009 was because Mangano promised to lower taxes (property in this case) and Nassau has some of the highest property taxes in the entire Country. If the race later this year is more focused on social issues like gun control and has much higher turnout than the dreadful 2014 election, then Suozzi is a shoe-in.

From 2008-2010 wasn't New York State something like 27 D to 2 R in Congress? We need to get back to that golden era. Especially upstate, there's too many Republican Reps up there. Sorry Torie

[smoltchanov]

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.

Its been a few years, but the only reason I can recall for Suozzi losing in 2009 was because Mangano promised to lower taxes (property in this case) and Nassau has some of the highest property taxes in the entire Country. If the race later this year is more focused on social issues like gun control and has much higher turnout than the dreadful 2014 election, then Suozzi is a shoe-in.

From 2008-2010 wasn't New York State something like 27 D to 2 R in Congress? We need to get back to that golden era. Especially upstate, there's too many Republican Reps up there. Sorry Torie

You are unlikely to get your wish, except in case of absolute Republican meltdown. King, Collins, Reed, Donovan  and Stefanik are difficult to beat. I wouldn't underestimate Katko either. And Hanna's district is not especially Democratic too. Zeldin and open Gibson seat - may be. But even that won't be easy..

[Smash255]

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.

Its been a few years, but the only reason I can recall for Suozzi losing in 2009 was because Mangano promised to lower taxes (property in this case) and Nassau has some of the highest property taxes in the entire Country. If the race later this year is more focused on social issues like gun control and has much higher turnout than the dreadful 2014 election, then Suozzi is a shoe-in.

From 2008-2010 wasn't New York State something like 27 D to 2 R in Congress? We need to get back to that golden era. Especially upstate, there's too many Republican Reps up there. Sorry Torie

It was an energy tax that Suozzi put forth to close a budget gap that Mangano made an issue out of and said he would repeal.  Came out to something like $40 per property, turnout was light so he was able to use that to his advantage, he did repeal it when he was elected and it blew a hole through the budget, and the county's finances have become a bigger mess since then.  The county finances are the least of Mangano's problems right now. 


Anyway Suozzi jumping in changes the dynamics of the race.

[Young Conservative]

Excellent.

[sg0508]

Having lived in District 3 for several years, it still tilts Democratic.  Nassau County is further left than Suffolk. In a presidential year, the odds of Democrats holding the district will be even greater.  Off year is where a GOP pickup would be more likely.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I'm not worried about this seat, unless the Dem candidate is terrible and the GOP one is awesome, it'll stay Democratic.

Every district below Dutchess/Ulster Counties in New York has a Democratic representative, except NY-13, which has every policeman, fireman & cranky Italian in NYC (not all Italians, just the conservative cranky ones), and Peter King's district, which will be up for grabs when he retires, which can't happen soon enough. That King didn't lose in '06 or '08 is a travesty.

Supposedly NY-1 has a GOP rep but I think that's a fluke from low turnout 2014 & Cuomo's underwhelming re-election. The far east end of the Island is extremely wealthy and socially liberal, Randy Altschuler Jr. will be swept out in the next Dem wave.

The Hamptons are full of rich liberals.  But NY-1 also includes much of the Town of Brookhaven, which is the largest Town in Suffolk County and much more working-class Republican than the Hamptons.  It's a marginal district at best, although the area has elected Democrats for most of the time since 1960.  It's a district that has seen two (2) Democrats and two (2) Republicans lose re-election, and Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) is not a particularly strong incumbent.

[Smash255]

Having lived in District 3 for several years, it still tilts Democratic.  Nassau County is further left than Suffolk. In a presidential year, the odds of Democrats holding the district will be even greater.  Off year is where a GOP pickup would be more likely.

Under the previous lines the GOP would pretty much have no chance.  Redistricting made both Israel and King's districts more competitive in an open seat.  With that being said in a Presidential year it tends to lean more Democratic, and the Democratic bench is a bit deeper, especially considering while they aren't tied directly to the current ethics scandals in the area, the bulk of the GOP bench are close to those who are (Skelos, Mangano, Walker, Venditto)

[Smash255]

Jon Kaiman the former Town of North Hempstead Supervisor and current NIFA chief is the first Democrat that will make it official that he is running other including Suozzi have annoucned they intent to run, set up exploratoy commite's, etc, Kaiman is the first stating he is running.