What if Civil Rights Act is Passed in 1948 instead of 1965

[Dardani1997]

What if the Civil Rights Movement several decades earlier in the 1940's during WW2? So that by the 1950's, Segregation in America is outlawed and African-Americans are fully "equal" in the same way that they were by the end of OTL's 1960's?

How Does the Elections from 1948 to Now look like?

How does American Society look like now?

How does the Timeline Look like?

[Dardani1997]

Passing by a Democrat

Franklin D. Roosevelt was Non-Racist and He Win a Black Vote

Until the New Deal, African Americans were supporters of the Republican Party because it was Republican President Abraham Lincoln who helped in granting freedom to American slaves; at the time, the Republicans and Democrats represented the sectional interests of the North and South, respectively, rather than any specific ideology, and both right and left were represented equally in both parties.

The African-American trend of voting for Democrats can be traced back to the 1930s during the Great Depression, when Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal program provided economic relief to African Americans; Roosevelt's New Deal coalition turned the Democratic Party into an organization of the working class and their liberal allies, regardless of region. The African-American vote became even more solidly Democratic when Democratic presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson pushed for civil rights legislation during the 1960s. In 1960, nearly a third of African Americans voted for Republican Richard Nixon.

[RINO Tom]

Basic scenario that would keep the same 2 party system as IRL:

1.  John W. Davis defeats Calvin Coolidge in 1924 and is reelected in 1928.  He governs basically as Wilson's 3rd and 4th terms.  Political activism for Republicans builds in enfranchised black communities.
2. Depression happens as IRL, 1932 is a landslide for a libertarianish New England Republican. 
3. Republican incumbent wins with >60% in 1936, takes every state but MS/AL/GA/SC
4. Civil Rights Act of 1937 starts process but interpreted narrowly by Davis/Wilson controlled SCOTUS, military integrated in 1937-38.
5. 1932 Republican and his VP have appointed majority of justices by 1940, replaced entire SCOTUS by mid 1940's. 
6. WWII against highly racist opponents with integrated military adds patriotic element to desegregation.  Stricter laws passed during 1940-45 and fully enforced by new SCOTUS which has explicitly overruled Slaughter-House.
7.  Congress passes federal law that new schools must be integrated during 1937-38.  Enforcement lags and Democratic congress elected toward end of WWII tries to shut it down, but SCOTUS finishes the job in 1948 by ordering immediate compliance subject to contempt proceedings for county officials.
8.  Dixiecrats run independent in 1948/52, leading the next Democratic president to tell them off and at least moderately embrace existing laws/SCOTUS rulings. 

Republicans would be the clear socially liberal party to the present day.  I'm not sure how things would shake out on economics, but one can imagine the increasing minority share of the Republican base in this world pulling them to the economic left over time, even though they would start out quite libertarian by modern standards.  Jim Crow would still have been in existence more than long enough to be a defining political experience for the black community, so I think it would still have valence to the present day.  For more dramatic changes, I like to imagine what might have happened if Benjamin Harrison had gotten the VRA-equivalent Force Bill through the Senate in 1890 and stopped the Southern Redeemer governments in their infancy. 

Maybe on civil rights, if we're defining a pro-civil rights stance as "socially liberal," but I don't see how a GOP that still wins the Black vote would necessarily not go down the same paths of being pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, against gay marriage, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only change I can see happening is RFK becoming prez not JFK, Eisenhower was needed to fight Soviets in 1950's, but pro States Rights LBJ wouldnt have been needed to run & Robert was much more popular among Dems than John
 I would have rathered Robert to become prez, he would have checked Hoover and FBI and assassinations might not have happened if we would of had a new FBI chief under better surveillance.

Hoover was kept, because of LBJ.

[Kingpoleon]

While John Davis in 1925-1933 seems pretty clear, I think we could have a Willkie-La Guardia ticket in 1932, and then Dewey in 1940. From there, Chief Justice of the SCOTUS, Charles Evan Hughes, Jr., makes segregation illegal in Henry Waters Taft v. The Board of Education of Trenton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KING would strongly endorse Robert Kennedy for prez in 1964 election, and Nixon probably wins in 1960

[Ariosto]

Any attempt to move the Civil Rights movement beyond a mere vocal movement during the Second World War would be dealt with harshly by the Roosevelt Administration, even if they are sympathetic to the reasoning behind such disobedience. With the backdrop of the war unity was required in matters of governance, and raising the specter of Civil Rights would have been a surefire way to alienate Southern Democrats wholly opposed to it. Thinking about it I can imagine that the Civil Rights movement for a time, given their activities during the Second World War, would be labeled as unpatriotic and in the short-term be disadvantaged when it comes to the advancement of political goals. The trend then might return with strength in the late 50's and achieve success in a similar time-frame to what actually happened.

This isn't to say that passing a Civil Rights Act in '48 is impossible, but you would need a far more liberal United States with changes back in the 1920's or 1910's to give this premise even a modicum of success given the trends that existed.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

KING would strongly endorse Robert Kennedy for prez in 1964 election, and Nixon probably wins in 1960

King would go GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was assassinated in same yr Robert died on an urban poverty tour. Jesse Jackson, was his friend, and Kennedys and Kings detested Jay Hoover, Nixon's FBI pal. I think not, he will go GOP.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

He was assassinated in same yr Robert died on an urban poverty tour. Jesse Jackson, was his friend, and Kennedys and Kings detested Jay Hoover, Nixon's FBI pal. I think not, he will go GOP.

Remember there were still conservative and liberal wings in both parties. Yes King would detest Hoover and Nixon but King was admired and respected by many in the GOP regardless of faction.

[Simfan34]

Basic scenario that would keep the same 2 party system as IRL:

1.  John W. Davis defeats Calvin Coolidge in 1924 and is reelected in 1928.  He governs basically as Wilson's 3rd and 4th terms.  Political activism for Republicans builds in enfranchised black communities.
2. Depression happens as IRL, 1932 is a landslide for a libertarianish New England Republican. 
3. Republican incumbent wins with >60% in 1936, takes every state but MS/AL/GA/SC
4. Civil Rights Act of 1937 starts process but interpreted narrowly by Davis/Wilson controlled SCOTUS, military integrated in 1937-38.
5. 1932 Republican and his VP have appointed majority of justices by 1940, replaced entire SCOTUS by mid 1940's. 
6. WWII against highly racist opponents with integrated military adds patriotic element to desegregation.  Stricter laws passed during 1940-45 and fully enforced by new SCOTUS which has explicitly overruled Slaughter-House.
7.  Congress passes federal law that new schools must be integrated during 1937-38.  Enforcement lags and Democratic congress elected toward end of WWII tries to shut it down, but SCOTUS finishes the job in 1948 by ordering immediate compliance subject to contempt proceedings for county officials.
8.  Dixiecrats run independent in 1948/52, leading the next Democratic president to tell them off and at least moderately embrace existing laws/SCOTUS rulings. 

Republicans would be the clear socially liberal party to the present day.  I'm not sure how things would shake out on economics, but one can imagine the increasing minority share of the Republican base in this world pulling them to the economic left over time, even though they would start out quite libertarian by modern standards.  Jim Crow would still have been in existence more than long enough to be a defining political experience for the black community, so I think it would still have valence to the present day.  For more dramatic changes, I like to imagine what might have happened if Benjamin Harrison had gotten the VRA-equivalent Force Bill through the Senate in 1890 and stopped the Southern Redeemer governments in their infancy. 

This sounds like a dream scenario for someone like me. (paging Oldiesfreak!) I don't think it would necessarily lead to the Republicans being a socially liberal party. I can easily see how it would lead to a much, much softer stance on gun control than today, for instance, but I think it would reinforce the parochial and community-oriented tendencies found in parts of the Old Right.

The Republican Party would probably have some of its strongest supporters in the black middle class, which would likely be larger than it is today, but also have a dedicated base in rural southern blacks who bore the brunt of Southern oppression. All else equal, poor inner-city blacks would probably still lean towards the Democratic Party. For instance, a "law-and-order" approach would probably have appeal for black Republicans seeking to "protect their communities from crime" and, maybe somewhat paternalistically, "stem the spread of drugs and criminality in black American society", but the messaging would have to be considerably less dog-whistling and may not have been as effective for white voers as a result. 

The resultant party would still be firmly on the right both in terms of economic and social policy, but it be less receptive towards the sort of hyper-individualistic, doctrinaire limited-government, and broadly "libertarian" currents that underlie most mainstream Republican thinking today. It would probably be less dogmatic-- social issues would almost always be framed in terms of in terms of their impact on society, communities, and social cohesion, rather than individual "liberty". It would have embraced the sort of policies laid out in the Moynihan Report targeted to improve the condition of black Americans, while still criticising welfare and the excesses of liberal permissiveness.

Black Republicanism would likely have Booker T. Washington as its intellectual godfather and his vision of black self-improvement and middle class advancement as its ideological core. It would still be broadly supportive of free-market, classical liberal policies, but ultimately they would drive the GOP in a considerably more "compassionate conservative" direction. At the same time, I could see Kirkian traditionalism, with its intense focus on the family, community, religion, and the value of tradition and custom (as opposed to progressive social engineering) having an appeal for certain segments of black Republicanism. It is quite interesting to think about, really.

I've completely ignored Southern whites, though. Frankly, they can only drag down whatever party they latch on to. If they stick with the Democrats, that party will likely fall into naked economic populism while taking a far more muddled approach towards social policy. It would firmly be the "anti-establishment" party, the standard-bearer of the white working class. Politics would be considerably more class-oriented. You'd have far fewer wealthy liberals backing them, although unionism would probably far stronger than it is today. On the flipside we'd be considerably to the right of where we are today in terms of social issues. Many blacks would probably oppose abortion as harmful to the black family, for instance, and quite a few would probably view it as a liberal social engineering project, akin to today's fringe view of abortion as "black genocide". Skill and Chances' map is pretty close to what I'd expect in this scenario, although I can't see Ike losing in 1952.

If southern Whites somehow latched onto the Republican Party on this scenario, on the other hand, it would produce a result not dissimilar from what we see today, only even more stark and probably sooner, as the black (and probably Hispanic) middle class would be considerably stronger and more influential than it is now. As such, their alienation from this GOP would have a greater effect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LBJ-Carter-Robert C Byrd wing  or Protestant wing & Kennedy or Catholic wing of Dems. RFK & Joe were more like FDR and would have been tougher than John on law enforcement. That's why GOP didnt want Robert in, he would have been tougher on discrimination laws. Thus, murdered in 1968, along with King.

[RINO Tom]

Sorry, but I don't see how this changes the voting patterns of Blacks (compared to what they were in 1948 already): affluent Blacks might remain Republican, but poor Blacks would likely remain with the Democrats ... they had no problem voting for a party full of Dixiecrats if their Northern representatives were at least tolerant of their concerns (which they were), and the GOP RE-affirming its commitment to civil rights wouldn't change that; they already knew where the GOP leadership stood.