GOP Delagate Simulator-Post your results
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:04:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  GOP Delagate Simulator-Post your results
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GOP Delagate Simulator-Post your results  (Read 3788 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 06, 2016, 06:56:25 PM »

I found this neat interactive tool, you can enter your own percentages for each candidate in each Primary/Caucus and it will assign delegate to each candidate. You can also drop out any candidate at any time.

Because this Calculator was created in November, Lindsey Graham and  George Pataki  are still included in the simulation.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/17/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html


Feel free to Post your Delegate map predictions and simulations here.


Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2016, 08:16:27 PM »

I've got it as being really... really ugly, in fact, a brokered convention.

Final numbers
Trump - 14 wins 796 delegates
Christie - 27 wins 731 delegates
Cruz - 15 wins 593 delegates

Dropped out with delegates
Bush 0 wins 97 delegates
Rubio 0 wins 112 delegates
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2016, 08:31:26 PM »

I posted about this back in November:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223397.0

As I wrote at the time, I disagree with some of their advice for using it.  The states allocating delegates by CD are going to be tilted much more towards the statewide winner (assuming he wins by more than a few points) than you would get from a proportional allocation.  By distributing the CD delegates too evenly, you end up overestimating the chances of a brokered convention.
Logged
Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2016, 08:59:35 PM »




Republican Ted Cruz is the nominee. TRUMP delegates walk out.
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2016, 09:03:54 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2016, 09:17:26 PM by Pacific Councilor 1184AZ »

Here is what I got

Rubio 1012 Delegates, 27 states won
Cruz 727 Delegates 14 states won
Trump 724 Delegates 15 States won

Dropped out won Delegates
 Christie 5 Delegates
 Carson 2 Delegates
Bush 1 Delegate
Kasick 1 Delegate
Fioriana 1 Delegate
Huckabee 1 Delegate
Santorum 1 Delegate
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2016, 09:13:34 PM »

I posted about this back in November:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223397.0

As I wrote at the time, I disagree with some of their advice for using it.  The states allocating delegates by CD are going to be tilted much more towards the statewide winner (assuming he wins by more than a few points) than you would get from a proportional allocation.  By distributing the CD delegates too evenly, you end up overestimating the chances of a brokered convention.


Indeed, which is why I tinkered with the CD allocations. The issue I found is that the schedule would aid one of the three contenders for a period, like Cruz did extremely well in the South and the eastern plains... Christie would get a big run in the states with more moderate voter bases (basically the Democratic states in the general), it was only Trump who had regular wins.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2016, 09:14:52 PM »

Mine crashed during Super Tuesday Sad
Logged
Seneca
Rookie
**
Posts: 245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2016, 09:28:37 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2016, 12:10:08 AM by Seneca »

Neat tool.

In my scenario, Cruz wins Iowa, Trump beats a strong Christie campaign in New Hampshire before going on to win South Carolina, and Rubio locks up Nevada with heavy Mormon support. Super Tuesday is split between Trump and Cruz. Christie acts as a spoiler for Rubio through much of March before giving up and suspending his campaign, allowing Rubio to make a resurgence.

At Convention:
Cruz 929
Trump 711
Rubio 687

Drop Outs:
Christie 142
Paul 1

I forgot to adjust CD delegate allocations to support state winners, which skews this projection against Cruz. I also am probably too optimistic about Rubio's ability to run a competent campaign, and the speed at which many candidates drop out (in my scenario, only Cruz, Trump, Rubio, and Christie are still in after South Carolina).
Logged
Why
Unbiased
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2016, 09:47:36 PM »

Rubio is not winning Nevada. He rejected Mormonism so why would they support him?

If Trump only just loses Iowa, wins NH and SC then there is no way he loses NV.
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2016, 10:26:20 PM »

Based on the most recent poll results for each state, according to Wikipedia. Some are obviously out of date, but it was fun anyway.



Donald Trump: 926 delegates, 27 wins
Ted Cruz: 327 delegates, 4 wins
Ben Carson: 276 delegates, 6 wins
Marco Rubio: 218 delegates, 0 wins
Jeb Bush: 164 delegates, 2 wins
Rand Paul: 104 delegates, 4 wins
Chris Christie: 44 delegates, 1 win
Mike Huckabee: 41 delegates, 0 wins
Carly Fiorina: 29 delegates, 0 wins
John Kasich: 19 delegates, 0 wins
Rick Santorum: 5 delegates, 0 wins
Lindsey Graham: 1 delegate, 0 wins

There was no data for a few states, but I don't think it would have pushed Trump over the top.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2016, 10:37:49 PM »

Odd, I know. Christie drops out, then Rubio, which gives Bush a surge toward the end (but not enough to capture a plurality of delegates - let alone a majority). Cruz probably gets it in the end, as he always envisioned it playing out this way:

Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,625
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2016, 12:38:58 AM »

I got.....

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 12 queries.