Do you think John McCain is going to lose this time?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 2016, is truely anti INCUMBANT year, McCain would have truely lost, but Ward will win anyways.

[Kingpoleon]

Arizona Republicans are pretty moderate. Jeff Flake and John McCain outnumber Brewer, and Ducey is pretty mainstream on everything except immigration.

[pho]

Arizona has the most delegates of any state voting on March 22nd. If the Presidential nomination is undecided by then, the increased effort to turn out anti-establishment voters could sink McCain in the senate primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was the few GOPers who supported expansion of background checks on guns.

[Leinad]

McCain is not popular with conservatives, but those voters will support him over a liberal Democrat like Ann Kirkpatrick. If he survives the primary, his chances of losing reelection are about the same as Patty Murray's.

Why would they support John McCain over Ann Kirkpatrick? I thought that the Arizona Republicans were sick of him.

Yeah, that's why they will support a true conservative like Ann Kirkpatrick over that RINO McCain... give me a break.

Well, voting for a third party or just not voting at all are still options as well.

The combination of a few pissed off conservatives/libertarians being pissed off enough to vote for a third party or simply stay home plus the Democrats using Trump or Cruz as a dog whistle to up Hispanic and liberal turnout could very easily oust McCain.

Will it? Eh, I'm a pessimist, so probably not.

[Bojack Horseman]

If there is a wave, which Is too early to tell, he or Portman or Burr can lose, which is possuble under a Trump nomination.

That's what I was going to say.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OHIO isnt over, Strickland and Murpht and Russ are our strongest recruits

[Sir Mohamed]

If he’s outprimaried, Ward will likely lose the November election. If he prevails, he’ll probably win the general. However, the primary will be close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCain supports expanded background gun checks, he's not losing. Unlike, Toomey or Kirk, where Dems outnumber GOP in state.

[Virginiá]

John McCain will win in the primary (narrowly) and win in the general. He is going to end up dying in this seat.

The ol' Byrd-style career, where any potential new C-3 US Senator from Arizona would almost literally have to be elected over McCain's dead body.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They worked on 2007 immigration reform compromise. They arent offended by each other.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think he will lose the primary, AZ Republicans are some of the most conservative in the nation right on par with MS Republicans who nearly ousted Cochran I think Ward is a lot more polished than McDaniels.

McCain is also a better candidate than Cochran.

[Vosem]

I can imagine McCain losing to Ward, though considering how he destroyed Hayworth I really don't think it'll happen. McCain does still have contacts (Palin has lost prominence since 2010 but I'd imagine she still has some pull with these types of voters) on the anti-establishment side of the GOP who will pull for him if necessary. In the general, Kirkpatrick of course can win if there is a sufficiently large Democratic wave, but I tend to doubt it; Arizona is a pretty inelastic state and it's not a place where the Republican base will be put off by one of the more extreme presidential nominees.

As to McCain dying in his seat, I thought it was well-known that Martha McSally is his intended successor, and he's running again because she wouldn't be able to win the primary as a first-term Congresswoman. He'll most likely retire in 2022 (though I can imagine her losing her seat, McCain not finding a new "successor", and ending up running for yet another term as he tries to groom someone else). Chuck Grassley and Dick Shelby strike me as die-in-the-seat types, but I don't really think McCain is.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I do see McCain getting upset in the primary Lugar style while the GOP candidate keeping the seat.  Donnelly will be defeated in 2018 by another Tea Partier. (sorry Young but Banks will beat you in 2018 like Stutzman will in 2016)

[pbrower2a]

The last Arizona poll showed his approval rate abysmal -- low enough to suggest the possibility of defeat in a primary. He has become increasingly erratic, which is not good for re-election.