When will the country become less polarized and have more landslide elections?
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  When will the country become less polarized and have more landslide elections?
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Author Topic: When will the country become less polarized and have more landslide elections?  (Read 1558 times)
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MagneticFree
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« on: January 07, 2016, 04:00:18 AM »

When will the country become more united and less politically polarized and have more landslide elections that become more common? What kind of stuff does each candidate have to say and do to have elections where everyone is united?



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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2016, 07:10:13 AM »

The 1964 and 1984 landslides were brought upon us due to nuclear war threat from Russia. Even Roosevelt landslides were due the threat of Nazis. The country have an all volunteer army, and we arent threatened like we were in past. Dubya talked about missle shield, which wasnt necessary. Landslides like 2012 will be of a norm, we will have more Dems as prez now.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2016, 01:31:49 PM »

The 1964 and 1984 landslides were brought upon us due to nuclear war threat from Russia. Even Roosevelt landslides were due the threat of Nazis. The country have an all volunteer army, and we arent threatened like we were in past. Dubya talked about missle shield, which wasnt necessary. Landslides like 2012 will be of a norm, we will have more Dems as prez now.

The Nazi threat was no major topic in the 1936 election.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2016, 02:45:30 PM »

Holy sh^t, I know some people here live and die by the Obama era politics, but WV will not be one of the last GOP holdouts!!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2016, 04:13:43 PM »

When will the country become more united and less politically polarized and have more landslide elections that become more common? What kind of stuff does each candidate have to say and do to have elections where everyone is united?





Analogues to these scenarios would be the 1932 and 1980 Presidential elections in which the incumbent President was widely seen as a failure, and the challenger is a slick-talking outsider who can offer ebullient optimism about a nearly-diametric change in political life.

But wait -- that also describes 2008 as well. I can see Barack Obama as a mirror image of Ronald Reagan with much the same political skills. So what is different? Maybe President Obama is a poor cultural match outside of Urban America which now includes Northern and Western suburbs.

It may be Barack Obama who is the anomaly, winning 278 electoral votes by 8% or more but losing 141 electoral votes by 8% or more. He was winning by Reagan-like margins in some states while losing by McGovern-like margins in some states. The biggest d@mn-yankee pol there ever was? Could be.

0bama 2008 - Reagan 1980 is fairly similar (actually, Obama got 52.80% of the raw vote and Reagan got 50.75% of the raw vote), at least if one combines the Carter and Anderson vote. Figure that if one combines the Carter and Anderson votes, Reagan still would have won the electoral vote  290-248.

People are often amazed that Reagan won Massachusetts in 1980 -- but he got only 41.90% of the vote. The combined vote for Carter and Anderson that year was 56.90%, which isn't that far from the 61.80% that Obama got in Massachusetts in 2008.

Attitudes toward the Presidency have changed. The mass disdain that President George W. Bush developed by the dreary end of his Presidency may have been well deserved. That against President Obama may not be as well deserved, but it started early with well-organized campaigns. Contrast the norm with Ronald Reagan... maybe he occasionally said something outrageous but he backed down and Americans accepted the retraction. With Barack Obama a well-organized right-wing media kept hitting President Obama hard, never forgiving anything.

Political climates come and go. It could be that Barack Obama is simply a horrible match for the culture of much of America, and no matter what he does he will be held in contempt in much of America.

This may be the sort of election that one expects in a country in which political opinion is not severely polarized. If you are talking about an election in which the winner got just a little more of the raw popular vote (53.39% instead of 52.80%) than Obama got in 2008



FDR won the electoral vote 432-99 in 1944. Of course, America was much more unified in purpose (there was a war going on, even if Hitlerland was in its death throes and Thug Japan was doomed) as America isn't now. Paradoxically, Obama's win is more impressive because  of President Roosevelt's biggest wins were in five states (Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana) that did not then have free elections!
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2016, 10:46:41 PM »

400+ EVs? I don't think we'll see another one like that until at least 2036. It should be noted that states like UT, WY, and ID are easier to flip than TX and the Dakotas. They are far more elastic and don't require huge minority turnout, just something like a Trump v. Very Popular Schweitzer.




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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2016, 03:56:30 PM »

An era where we have another 400+ EV landslide is going to be one in which Democrats recover at least SOME ground with "working class Whites" and Republicans make at least SOME inroads with Hispanics.  This would be my guess, maybe 30-40 years down the road (which I know, in and of itself, is absolutely ridiculous):

Democratic Landslide:



Republican Landslide:



As you can see, the Republican scenario is nearly impossible under current circumstances.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2016, 04:03:53 PM »


Why Arkansas and Louisiana? I can sort of understand Louisiana (I assume because of its very large African American population), but why Arkansas? Gore/Kerry did alright there, but Obama lost in landslides. It doesn't seem to be just a temporary Obama-related setback either. Democrats have gotten annihilated in the legislature since 2010 and have lost every single statewide office as of 2014.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2016, 04:13:37 PM »


Why Arkansas and Louisiana? I can sort of understand Louisiana (I assume because of its very large African American population), but why Arkansas? Gore/Kerry did alright there, but Obama lost in landslides. It doesn't seem to be just a temporary Obama-related setback either. Democrats have gotten annihilated in the legislature since 2010 and have lost every single statewide office as of 2014.

I think a Democratic Party strong enough to get 400+ will have to regain some of that traditional territory.  Not '90s level strength or anything, but if Kerry had won 400+ votes, AR would have absolutely been among his states.
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2016, 11:33:51 PM »

The parties are way too different now to even think of such a scenario. 
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DS0816
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2016, 04:37:25 AM »

When will the country become more united and less politically polarized and have more landslide elections that become more common?


At least one of two things:

1) A prevailing candidate—applicable to both Republicans and Democrats—who has such a winning campaign message and approach ends up carrying the U.S. Popular Vote well north of 10 percentage points (which, over the last two elections, averages about 13 million votes and even better).

2) As the trend is already moving, whites becomes less a share of the vote nationwide. In 2008, losing Republican John McCain carried 22 states. 17 of those states—combining for 101 electoral votes (subtract one from his failure to hold Nebraska #02)—were won very much in part because the whites' share of the vote from those states, multiplied by their Republican/McCain vote, was enough to immediately carry those states. The five states—combining for 73 electoral votes—which were exceptions (in ascending order of their carried percentage margins): Missouri, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.

Right now, we're in a period in which the percentages of carried states is almost close to the 1876 to 1896 period (to cite 20 years and six election cycles just like with 1992 to 2012 and those 20 years and six election cycles). Maybe it's not quite that bad. That was a period in which no presidential winner reached having carried 60 percent of that period's available states.

See: @ https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222186.0 .
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