2018 Tennessee Gubernatorial Election

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Who's running? Who's gonna win? Corker? Carr?

[Miles]

Roll Call was pushing a Corker/Haslam job switch a while ago, but now that Corker's in the majority, its probably somewhat less likely.

[Kingpoleon]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

[Penelope]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

[Young Conservative]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

[Oak Hills]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

1. Tennessee doesn't elect its lieutenant governor.
2. No.
3. No Democrat can win statewide at the moment.

[smoltchanov]

I think that Bill Haslam will br THE most sane and reasonable governor of Tennessee for a long time to come... 3 or 4 next one will be Republican too, but - much more conservative...

[smoltchanov]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong?

Why are you doing this?

I think that Bill Haslam will br THE most sane and reasonable governor of Tennessee for a long time to come... 3 or 4 next one will be Republican too, but - much more conservative...

Statewide elected TN Republicans have always been as close to "establishment"/generic R as you can get (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Frist, Thompson, ...)

I know that. But doubt that will be so in the future. Too much open right-wingers in Congressional delegation and Legislature.. Haslam and Alexander are "the best" of those you mentioned in my opinion, but first is routinely attacked and second was heavily primaried from the right..

[Oak Hills]

Also, to answer the OP's question about potential candidates, I've seen speculation that state House Speaker Beth Harwell may run. If elected, I believe she'd be the first female governor in Tennessee's history.

[RINO Tom]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong?

Why are you doing this?

I think that Bill Haslam will br THE most sane and reasonable governor of Tennessee for a long time to come... 3 or 4 next one will be Republican too, but - much more conservative...

Statewide elected TN Republicans have always been as close to "establishment"/generic R as you can get (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Frist, Thompson, ...)

I know that. But doubt that will be so in the future. Too much open right-wingers in Congressional delegation and Legislature.. Haslam and Alexander are "the best" of those you mentioned in my opinion, but first is routinely attacked and second was heavily primaried from the right..

Mark Clayton was probably to the right of Corker on many issues, too. It's a shame that the national Democratic party abandoned and ignored him.

Don't know about that ... the death of the "archetypal Southern Democrat" was a symbolic cleansing of one of our nation's biggest embarrassments.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Maybe Blackburn, Ramsey, Corker, Harwell, or Hargett?

[smoltchanov]

Maybe Blackburn, Ramsey, Corker, Harwell, or Hargett?

IIRC, wuth exception of Corker - all belong to ultra-right camp?

[Oak Hills]

Maybe Blackburn, Ramsey, Corker, Harwell, or Hargett?

IIRC, wuth exception of Corker - all belong to ultra-right camp?

I believe Harwell and Hargett are mainstream conservatives. Ramsey and Blackburn are nuttier.

[Kingpoleon]

In all seriousness, I'm going to look into Randy McNally. If he seems remotely moderate, I would gladly go a bit east to work on a gubernatorial campaign for such an interesting person.

[Suburbia]

For the Democrats: Former Nashville mayor Karl Dean should run, he seems electable. Maybe Former Tennessee congressman Lincoln Davis should run too.

For the Republicans: Bob Corker, maybe Marsha Blackburn, maybe Steve Fincher may run for governor in 2018.

[smoltchanov]

Maybe Blackburn, Ramsey, Corker, Harwell, or Hargett?

IIRC, wuth exception of Corker - all belong to ultra-right camp?

I believe Harwell and Hargett are mainstream conservatives. Ramsey and Blackburn are nuttier.

Thanks! Mainstream conservative is, probably, the best what realisticaly can be expected in Tennessee now.

[Mr.Phips]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

Under the current lines, even Obama solidly won Cooper's district.  Even in an open seat race, the current TN-05 would be likely Dem.

[Ebsy]

I guess Democrats need to put someone up in case a crazy person wins the nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell(R) First Lady's Guest for SOTU

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It sounds like he's trying to get support and test the waters for a run to me.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

Under the current lines, even Obama solidly won Cooper's district.  Even in an open seat race, the current TN-05 would be likely Dem.

It's only D+5.  If it were an open seat and the GOP got a country music star (it's Nashville, after all), they would have a good chance.  Even if this doesn't happen, I expect that it will be divided between the surrounding districts (maybe the 4th, 6th, and 7th), along with a new 5th.  They would all be pretty safe.

[Mr.Phips]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

Under the current lines, even Obama solidly won Cooper's district.  Even in an open seat race, the current TN-05 would be likely Dem.

It's only D+5.  If it were an open seat and the GOP got a country music star (it's Nashville, after all), they would have a good chance.  Even if this doesn't happen, I expect that it will be divided between the surrounding districts (maybe the 4th, 6th, and 7th), along with a new 5th.  They would all be pretty safe.

D+5 in the South is much different than D+5 in NY or MA.  The voters that make this kind of seat Dem are pretty inelastic in their voting habits.  D+5 in Tennessee is equivalent to R+5 in a state like California, which is pretty safe for Republicans in any scenario.

Even Lamar Alexander only barely carried this district in his 2014 Senate race that he won by over 30 points.

Obviously if this seat is cracked among the 4th, 6th , and 7th, Republicans will pick it up.

[Adam Griffin]

Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell(R) First Lady's Guest for SOTU

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It sounds like he's trying to get support and test the waters for a run to me.

Hick last name; won't win against a qualified, competent alternative with a proper last name.

Remember: this is the land of Haslam, Bredesen, Sundquist, Frist and Alexander.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

Under the current lines, even Obama solidly won Cooper's district.  Even in an open seat race, the current TN-05 would be likely Dem.

It's only D+5.  If it were an open seat and the GOP got a country music star (it's Nashville, after all), they would have a good chance.  Even if this doesn't happen, I expect that it will be divided between the surrounding districts (maybe the 4th, 6th, and 7th), along with a new 5th.  They would all be pretty safe.

D+5 in the South is much different than D+5 in NY or MA.  The voters that make this kind of seat Dem are pretty inelastic in their voting habits.  D+5 in Tennessee is equivalent to R+5 in a state like California, which is pretty safe for Republicans in any scenario.

Even Lamar Alexander only barely carried this district in his 2014 Senate race that he won by over 30 points.

Obviously if this seat is cracked among the 4th, 6th , and 7th, Republicans will pick it up.

So what exactly makes these voters so inelastic compared to the kind of voters that elected Robert Dold twice in a D+8 district in Illinois?

[Mr.Phips]

Would a Harold Ford, Jr./Mary Mancini ticket be remotely strong? Or is Jim Cooper the only Democrat who could win statewide?

lol

Jim cooper's district could be potentially vulnerable if they have a good republican running. i think they'll have him stay there

Under the current lines, even Obama solidly won Cooper's district.  Even in an open seat race, the current TN-05 would be likely Dem.

It's only D+5.  If it were an open seat and the GOP got a country music star (it's Nashville, after all), they would have a good chance.  Even if this doesn't happen, I expect that it will be divided between the surrounding districts (maybe the 4th, 6th, and 7th), along with a new 5th.  They would all be pretty safe.

D+5 in the South is much different than D+5 in NY or MA.  The voters that make this kind of seat Dem are pretty inelastic in their voting habits.  D+5 in Tennessee is equivalent to R+5 in a state like California, which is pretty safe for Republicans in any scenario.

Even Lamar Alexander only barely carried this district in his 2014 Senate race that he won by over 30 points.

Obviously if this seat is cracked among the 4th, 6th , and 7th, Republicans will pick it up.

So what exactly makes these voters so inelastic compared to the kind of voters that elected Robert Dold twice in a D+8 district in Illinois?

The voters that elected Dold were socially moderate, but fiscally conservative white suburbanites.

The Dem base in TN-05 is made up of minorities and academic type liberals that are basically unswingable in their voting behavior.