India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Starting to look almost a little bit terminal for the WB Commies isn't it?

[jaichind]

Starting to look almost a little bit terminal for the WB Commies isn't it?

Yes.  In fact AITC has totally outflanked them on the Left.  It is the AITC which is now the Left party in WB.  Over the period of LF rule in WB of 1977-2011 LF has become moderates and pro-establishment bloc and opened the way for AITC to become the agitating and radical party.  If AITC continues on this path it will completely displace LF in WB as the bloc of the Left.  This will mean that BJP will take over the space AITC has vacated.  The future of WB might be AITC perhaps allied with INC vs BJP with LF becoming a fringe player.

[jaichind]

Now that count is getting pretty close to be done it is better to use official ECI figures

WB (294) -> 294 counted (almost done)
AITC         211
LF-INC       76 (44 INC, 26 CPM, 1 CPI, 2 AIFB, 3 RSP)
BJP+            6 (3 BJP, 3 GJM)
Ind.             1


Assam (126) -> 126 counted - some more counting to go
BJP+          86 (BJP 60, AGP 14, BPF 12)
INC+          26
AIUDF        13
Others         1


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 232 counted - some more counting to go
DMK-INC     98 (89 DMK, 8 INC, 1 IUML)
AIADMK     134
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 140 counted - pretty much done
CPM+        91
INC+         47
BJP+           1
Others         1 


Puducherry (30) -> all completely counted
INC-DMK    17 (15 INC, 2 DMK)
AINRC          8
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         1

[jaichind]

Vote share in WB is AITC 44.9%, LF-INC 38.2% (INC 12.3% LF 25.9%) BJP+ 10.7%. 
In Kerala BJP-BDJS at 14.7%  INC+ is around 38.8%  CPM+ 43.1%
In TN it is AIADMK 40.8% DMK-INC 39.3% PMK 5.3% BJP 2.9% DMDK-PWF 6.1%
In Assam INC+ 31% BJP+ 41.7% AIUDF 13.0% 
In Puducherry INC+ 39.5% AINRC 28.1% AIADMK 16.8%

At this stage these are going to be the vote shares.  They are not normalized for NOTA yet so all these numbers might go up slightly once we filter out NOTA.

It is amazing how close AIADMK vs DMK-INC is.  This is the closest TN election ever, especially in terms of vote share.  DMDK-PWF completely bombed.  Had DMK-PWF and PMK went with DMK-INC they would have won, even if BJP and TMC went with AIADMK.  AIADMK created a grand alliance in 2011 to win.  DMK tried and failed to create such a grand alliance and narrowly failed to defeat AIADMK.

AITC is clearly eating into LF and BJP vote blocs and has completely realigned the electorate from the 1980-2011 partisan system. 

In Assam it is BPF and AGP that did quite well in terms of vote share and clearly benefited from its alliance with BJP. 

In Kerala BJP+ vote share of 14.7% is unprecedented and if it can eat in the the Upper Caste Nair vote they could do permanent  damage to INC+.  In such a situation Kerala might move to a 3 bloc system where INC+ has Christians/Muslims, CPM+ has lower caste Hindus, and BJP+ has upper caste Hindus.

[jaichind]

We are pretty much done  counting

WB (294) -> All done
AITC         211
LF-INC       76 (44 INC, 26 CPM, 1 CPI, 2 AIFB, 3 RSP)
BJP+            6 (3 BJP, 3 GJM)
Ind.             1


Assam (126) -> 1 seat left not finished counting
BJP+          86 (BJP 60, AGP 14, BPF 12)
INC+          26
AIUDF        13
Others         1


TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting) -> 6 seats left where there are counting
DMK-INC     98 (89 DMK, 8 INC, 1 IUML)
AIADMK     134
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0


Kerala (140) -> 140 counted - all done
CPM+        91
INC+         47
BJP+           1
Others         1 


Puducherry (30) -> all completely counted
INC-DMK    17 (15 INC, 2 DMK)
AINRC          8
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         1

[jaichind]

Lets take a look how my exit poll based projection method worked.  

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.

For WB it seemed to me that in aggregate the pre-poll surveys mostly matched the various exit poll surveys so I un-skewed  Todays Chanakya's exit poll to lower the BJP+ seat count and took the average of exit polls which producted

WB
AITC           185
LF-INC        104
BJP                 4
Others            1

The result is

WB (294)
AITC         211
LF-INC       76 (44 INC, 26 CPM, 1 CPI, 2 AIFB, 3 RSP)
BJP+            6 (3 BJP, 3 GJM)
Ind.             1

Which is somewhat off but not by massive amounts.   In retrospect I did not rigorously apply my algorithm.  I went back and looked.  While in aggregate the exit polls matched pre-poll surveys, since different pollsters did both types of surveys, for the ones that did both there was a small improvement in AITC numbers in like-for-like comparisons.    Of course if I took the most pro-AITC poll it would have produced a projection of 243 for AITC which is off in the other direction.  What I needed to do was to use the second most pro-AITC exit poll which had 210 for AITC would have spot on.  Overall my algorithm does not deal well with slight improvements in exit polls when compared to pre-poll surveys well but as it is the projection was not bad.
 



For Assam BJP+ exit polls were more pro-BJP so I threw out the Todays Chanakya survey and took the most aggressive pro-BJP+ exit poll and came out with

Assam
BJP+        85
INC+        30
AIUDF      10
Others       1

Result is

Assam (126)
BJP+          86 (BJP 60, AGP 14, BPF 12)
INC+          26
AIUDF        13
Others         1

Which seems pretty good projection.  So a win here for my algorithm.




For TN I first un-skewed  Todays Chanakya's survey then looked at all the exit polls.  In most surveys for sure had an improvement for DMK+ when compared to pre-poll survey so I took the most pro-DMK exit poll and added a bunch of seats for DMK+ because of the opposition victory PLUS to factor in the uniform swing nature of TN elections and came out with

TN
DMK-INC    155
AIADMK       75
Others          4

Result is

TN (234 -> 2 seats not voting)  
DMK-INC     98 (89 DMK, 8 INC, 1 IUML)
AIADMK     134
DMDK-PWF   0
PMK             0
BJP              0
Others         0

Clearly my algorithm failed mainly because most exit polls had DMK+ winning when only C-Voter survey had AIADMK winning.  AIADMK's victory was based on a lack of swing from AIADMK to DMK+. DMK+ was able to consolidate the anti-AIADMK vote fairly well driving DMDK-PWF to single digits.  In that sense DMK+ should have "won" as there will be natural swing away from the ruling party in TN.  It did not take place.




For Kerala I first un-skewed  Todays Chanakya's survey.  The concluded that exit polls mostly matched  pre-poll surveys.  So I took the exit poll average and added a bunch of seats to the winning opposition bloc CPM+.  I came out with

Kerala
CPM+           86
INC+            52
BJP+              1
Others           1

Result is

Kerala (140)
CPM+        91
INC+         47
BJP+           1
Others         1  

I mostly got it right but perhaps added too few seats to the CPM+ for it being the winning opposition bloc.  Kerala is fairly uniform in its swings so I should have given more seats to CPM+ in my adjustment but overall my unskew of Todays Chanakya's exit poll was a victory and overall the algorithm worked fairly well.




For  Puducherry there was no  Todays Chanakya's poll to unskew.  Overall pre-election surveys, which were not many, mostly matched the few exit polls that came out.   So I went with the average of exit polls and added extra seats to INC+ for it being the winning opposition bloc.  I came out with

Puducherry
INC-DMK     19
AINRC           7
AIADMK        3
Others          1

Result is

Puducherry (30)  
INC-DMK    17 (15 INC, 2 DMK)
AINRC          8
AIADMK        4
PMK             0
DMDK-PWF   0
Others         1

Which looks pretty accurate and a victory for my exit poll adjustment algorithm for projections.

Overall I am happy with these projections and for me the TN fail was a fail of most exit polls.  Frankly I am still shocked that AIADMK won.  If someone told me that DMDK-PWF would be held to around 6% of the vote, PMK around 5% and BJP+ around 3% in TN, I would have said that the result will be a DMK+ landslide.  No one had AIADMK at above 39% of the vote in their exit polls, not even the correct C-Voter exit poll.  AIADMK ended up with almost 42% which made all the difference as they beat DMK+ by 1% which produced a significant seat victory.  A swing of 1%-2% to DMK+ in the other direction would have given DMK+ a significant victory.  So in that sense me giving the winning side extra seats is based on sound logic.  It is just I applied it in the wrong direction, just like the exit polls.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So will the Bodo party that is allied with BJP push for a new state?

[jaichind]

So will the Bodo party that is allied with BJP push for a new state?

They already have it, kinda.  There have been an on again and off again Bodo extremist movement for decades for a Bodoland state.  Back in 2003 a deal was made where an autonomous Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) was created in the areas around Bodoland.  This Council had rules where only Schedule Tribes (ST) can contest elections which really meant that only Bodos could contest elections even though Bodos only make up around 35% of the population inside Bodoland Territorial Council which is mostly dominated by BPF as a result.  This time around what BPF will get as part of the BJP alliance is all sorts of extra central government subsidies  for BTC.  It is not clear if the Modi regime will follow through on these promises.

[jaichind]

My prelim chart on Kerala results by front

Kerala 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                140           47              38.78%
 INC                   87           22               23.82%
 MUL                  24           18                 7.77%
 KEC(M)              15            6                 4.01%
 JD(U)                  7            0                  1.47%
 RSP                    5             0                 1.08%
 KEC(J)                1             1                 0.37%
 CMP(J)                1             0                 0.28%

KEC(M) rebel       1             1                 0.32%
INC rebel             3            0                  0.09%

CPM+              140           91               43.64%
 CPM                 84           58                26.65%
 CPI                  26           19                  8.44%
 JD(S)                 5            3                   1.46%
 NCP                   4            2                   1.18%
 KEC(D)              4            0                   0.78%
 NSC                   3            2                   1.03%
 INL                    3            0                   0.56%
 CMP                   1            1                   0.60%
 RSP(L)               1            1                   0.38%
 KEC(B)               1            1                   0.37%
 C(S)                   1            1                   0.27%
 KEC(ST)             1            0                   0.16%
 Ind.                   6            3                   1.76%

BJP+                140          1                  15.01%
 BJP                   98           1                 10.58%
 BDJS                36           0                    3.95%
 KEC(T)               4           0                    0.25%
 JRS                    1           0                    0.14%
 JSS(RB)              1           0                    0.09%

SDPI                 88           0                   0.61%

WPOI                41           0                   0.31%

BJP+ got nearly 11% in 2014 LS elections but now surged to 15% which reduced INC+ and CPM+ to record lows, especially INC+.  BJP+ gained the most in places where it is the weakest which plus some anti-BJP tactical voting produced only 1 BJP seat.  It is clear that INC+ mostly retained its Muslim vote and some of the Christian vote which was eroded by the splintering of the KEC parties but it suffered a significant swing of its Hindu votes to INC+ which led to its defeat by CPM+.

[jaichind]

My prelim chart on Assam results by front

Note that AGP ran in 6 seats outside allocated by the BJP+ front so I seperated them out and put them right next to AGP rebels.  Same for UPP and the INC+ front. 

Assam 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+               126            26               32.40%
 INC                 122           26                31.56%
 UPP                    4              0                 0.84%

INC rebel           25              0                 2.34%
UPP                     8              0                 0.76%       

BJP+               126            86                41.99%
 BJP                  89             60               30.08%
 AGP                 24             14                 7.91%
 BPF                 13             12                 4.01%

AGP                    6              0                  0.39%
AGP rebel            8              0                  0.77%
BJP rebel           16              0                  0.97%
BPF rebel            5              0                  0.51%

AIUDF+            78            13                13.38%
 AIUDF              74            13                13.30%   
 JD(U)                 4              0                 0.08%

AIUDF rebel        5              0                  0.17%

CPM+               40              0                  1.42%
 CPM                 19             0                   0.56%
 CPI                  15             0                   0.22%
 ADSC                5              0                   0.61%
 CPM(ML)           1              0                   0.02%

SGS                   4              1                   0.83%

SJOM                 2               0                  0.27%
 
PCDR                 2              0                   0.26%
 
NCP                 12              0                   0.27%

BGP                 11              0                   0.22%

The BJP+ Bodo strategy clearly won out over INC+.  BJP-BPF swept the Bodoland seat over INC-UPP.  The non-Bodo consolation parties  SJOM and PCDR also got on-where with BJP managing to move its non-Bodo base in Bodoland to BPF.  BJP-AGP consolidation in Upper Assam worked and managed to sweep out INC.  In non-Bodoland Lower Assam there was a small swing from AIUDF to INC+ but it was not enough to help.  There are large scale rebellions in both INC+ and BJP+ which in the end canceled themselves out.

[jaichind]

My prelim chart on TN results by front

Only 232 out of 234 seats actually voted.  2 seats will have elections held later due to accusations of vote buying

TN 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
DMK+              234            98              40.45%
 DMK                180            89              32.19%   
 INC                   41              8                6.53%
 IMUL                  5              1                 0.74%
 MAMAK               4              0                0.46%
 PT                      4              0                 0.52%

AIADMK           234          134              41.49%   

DMDK+           234              0                6.17%
 DMDK             104             0                2.44%
 MDMK              29              0                0.88%
 TMC                 26              0                0.54%
 VCK                 25              0                0.78%
 CPI                  25              0                0.80%
 CPM                 25              0                0.72%

PMK               232               0                5.42%

BJP+              233              0                3.17%
 BJP                188              0                2.89%
 IJK                  44              0                0.27%
 Ind.                   1              0                0.01%

NTK               231              0                 1.08%

KMDK              71              0                 0.39%

BSP               158              0                 0.23%

SDPI               30              0                 0.16%

A very close victory for AIADMK.  DMK+ managed to consolidate the anti-AIADMK vote but barely missed in their goal of defeating AIADMK.  DMDK+ was a complete flop and exposed DMDK especially as tier two party.  TMC also totally bombed.  This does secure DMK and INC as the main opposition parties in TN.  PMK did managed to keep their vote share while BJP reverted back to its pre-2014 position in TN, a vote share around 2%-3% and totally isolated. 

[jaichind]

Jayalalithaa's AIADMK victory has many causes which when time allows I will spend some time on.  But one of them has to be that she won the freebee game over DMK.  DMK started this back in 2006 when DMK+ won based on a sorts of freebees such as  color TV and other household appliance.  Not being able to deliver on a lot of these promises was one of the reasons for DMK+ defeat in 2011 when AIADMK struck back with a bunch of freebee promises of its own.  This time around in 2016 AIADMK continued its freebee promises while DMK seems to have learned its lesson and decided not to play the freebee game.  Overall Jayalalithaa/AIADMK did a fairly good job delivering on a lot but not all her freebee promises back in 2011.   The most effective has been the Amma (nickname for Jayalalithaa) where all sorts of households got free laptops.

The laptops are decorated both in the  interior and exterior  in a way to make it clear who you should thank for the free laptop an who you should be voting for in 2016.

  



Of course the same thing takes place in other household items which were given away by the AIADMK regime.

[jaichind]

My prelim chart on Puducherry results by front

Puducherry 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share
INC+                 30            17              40.51%
 INC                  21             15              31.42%
 DMK                  9               2                9.09%

INC rebel            1              0                 1.01%

AINRC              30              8                28.88%

AINRC rebel       4               0                 3.10%

AIADMK           30              4                17.27%

CPI+                29              1                 3.59%
 CPI                   7              0                 1.10%
 VCK                  5              0                 0.50%
 CPM                  4              0                 0.39%
 MDMK               5              0                 0.10%
 DMDK               6              0                 0.11%
 RSP                  1              0                  0.01%
 Ind.                  1              1                 1.39%

BJP                  30              0                 2.48%

BJP rebel           1              0                  0.63%

PMK                30              0                  0.73%

NTK                 28             0                  0.50%

The INC-DMK victory is based on the AINRC AIADMK split.  Overall the vote shares of INC-DMK, AINRC, and AIADMK did not change that much since but the AINRC AIADMK split gave the INC-DMK the victory.  Within the INC-DMK bloc the INC vote share gone up and DMK gone down.  There was some AINRC AIADMK tactical voting which prevented an even larger INC-DMK victory.   CPI+ which is the DMDK-PWF front completely bombed just like in TN.

2011 Puducherry assembly elections

                     Contested              Won                  Vote share    

UPA                    30                      9                        40.41%
 INC                    17                     7                        26.53%
 DMK                  10                      2                        10.68%
 PMK                    2                       0                         2.48%  
 Independent       1                       0                         0.71%

DMK rebels          2                       1                          2.34%
INC rebels           6                       0                          3.58%

AINRC bloc         30                     20                       48.32%
 AINRC               17                     15                       31.75%
 AIADMK            10                      5                         13.75%
 CPM                   1                       0                          1.03%
 CPI                    1                       0                          0.94%
 DMDK                1                       0                          0.85%

AIADMK rebels    2                       0                          1.31%
DMDK rebels       1                       0                          0.37%
AINRC rebels      1                        0                         0.36%
 
BJP                   20                       0                          1.32%

[jaichind]

"I was robbed"  VCK leader Thirumaavalavan Thol should claim in TN.  He lost his seat by 87 votes to AIADMK.  Worse another independent candidate with the same name "Thirumaavalavan Thol" won 289 votes.  It seems possible in fact likely enough of the 289 votes were intended for the VCK leader especially when the VCK symbol is not as well known as AIADMK DMK or INC.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections-2016/tamil-nadu-elections-2016/news/TN-election-result-Namesake-becomes-nemesis-for-VCK-leader-Thol-Thirumavalavan/articleshow/52347669.cms

[jaichind]

Official WB 2016 results

In a couple dozen seats LF and INC ran separate candidates. I group the LF-INC votes this way: I defined the CPM+ front as which party the CPM backed in each district (CPM backed INC sometimes over its RSP and  AIFB allies and other times it opposed INC) and I grouped INC RSP and AIFB separately where they were not part of the CPM+ led alliance.  I then further broke down INC outside of CPM+ into two blocs, one in the INC heartland of Greater Murshidabad where it also backed MUL in a seat against the LF, and one outside Murshidabad as INC-MUL would perform a lot better even in a 3 way contest in Greater Murshidabad.  I also show vote share in the seats each party contested so we can look at performance of each party within an alliance in an normalized way.

WB 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share      In Seats contested
AITC+              294          211              45.71%               45.71%
 AITC               293          211              45.60%                45.72%
 JAP                     1              0                0.10%                41.79%

AITC rebel            1              0                0.25%                15.04%

CPM+              294            73              39.09%               39.09%
 CPM               148             26              20.05%               39.07%
 AIFB                23              2                 2.85%               36.03%  
 RSP                 15              3                 1.55%               32.63%
 CPI                  11              1                 1.47%               37.68%
 DSP(P)              2              0                  0.31%               39.61%
 NCP                  1              0                  0.13%               37.12%
 JKP(N)              1               0                 0.08%               25.01%
 JD(U)               1               0                 0.07%                22.60%
 CRSM               3               0                 0.05%                  6.05%
 RJD                  1               0                 0.03%               15.29%
 Ind.                 7                1                 0.89%               36.41%
 INC                81              40              11.60%               43.16%

INC-Murshi       8               4                 0.79%               30.71%
MUL                  1               0                 0.08%               27.23%
INC- Non Mur.   3               0                 0.05%                4.53%
INC rebel          4                0                 0.12%                9.02%    
RSP                  4               0                  0.14%               10.78%
AIFB                 2               0                  0.02%                2.23%
CPM rebel         1               0                  0.01%                4.32%

BJP+             294              6                10.78%              10.78%          
 BJP               291              3                10.31%              10.40%
 GJM                  3              3                  0.46%              56.22%

SUCI             182              0                  0.68%                1.09%

BSP              161              0                  0.56%                1.02%

INC mostly ran in areas where it was strong and did quite well as the LF was able to shift it shrinking vote base to it to defeat AITC in half such seats.   Even when INC ran separately from LF it performed fairly well in 3 way races between INC LF and AITC.  RSP and AIFB when it ran without CPM support fell to nearly nothing against INC and AITC.  It is also clear that CPM was not able to transfer its base as effectively to RSP and AIFB and that the a good chunk of the INC base went over to AITC where LF was running.

In Gorkhaland, it is GJM vs AITC-JAP vs CRSM with GJM clearly winning and CRSM losing out due to tactical voting for AITC-JAP.

[jaichind]

Final chart on Kerala results by front.  I also included vote share for seats contested

Kerala 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share        In Seats contested
INC+                140           47              38.81%                  38.81%
 INC                   87           22               23.82%                  38.07%
 MUL                  24           18                 7.77%                  45.31%
 KEC(M)              15            6                 4.01%                  38.95%
 JD(U)                  7            0                  1.47%                  29.57%
 RSP                    5             0                 1.08%                   31.38%
 KEC(J)                1             1                 0.37%                  46.05%
 CMP(J)                1             0                 0.28%                  36.93%

KEC(M) rebel       1             1                 0.32%                   47.74%
INC rebel             3            0                  0.09%                    3.30%

CPM+              140           91               43.37%                  43.37%                
 CPM                 84           58                26.65%                  44.37%
 CPI                  26           19                  8.45%                  44.91%                  
 JD(S)                 5            3                   1.46%                  41.04%
 NCP                   4            2                   1.18%                  41.48%
 KEC(D)              4            0                   0.78%                  29.38%
 NSC                   3            2                   1.03%                  43.79%
 INL                    3            0                   0.56%                  28.37%
 RSP(L)               1            1                   0.38%                  47.70%
 KEC(B)               1            1                   0.37%                 52.56%
 CMP                   1            1                   0.32%                  47.02%
 C(S)                   1            1                   0.27%                  43.23%
 KEC(ST)             1            0                   0.16%                  25.10%
 Ind.                   6            3                   1.76%                  40.98%

BJP+                140          1                  15.01%                 15.01%
 BJP                   98           1                 10.58%                  15.12%
 BDJS                36           0                    3.95%                 15.27%
 KEC(T)               4           0                    0.25%                   9.40%
 JRS                    1           0                    0.14%                 16.35%
 JSS(RB)              1           0                    0.09%                 13.56%  

SDPI                 88           0                   0.61%                    0.97%

WPOI                41           0                   0.31%                    1.05%

BSP                  74           0                   0.24%                    0.45%

PDP                  60           0                    0.24%                   0.55%

AIADMK              7           0                    0.17%                   3.48%

What we can get from the vote share in seats contested are

1) As expected INC and CPM hogged the more winnable seats which mean that INC and CPM tends to perform better than its allies.

2) For INC+ MUL did very well which means that the erosion of INC+ vote was more about losing Hindu and Christian votes.  The flip side for this is NCS not doing well in the CPM+ and INL doing ok mostly because INL also appeals to Dalits in addition to Muslims.

3) KEC(M) also saw is performance slide but not as bad as feared when it seems the the KEC vote was splintering. INC+ allies like JD(U) RSP doing poorly is a function of the fact that RSP could not bring over its vote based from the CPM+ front as well as INC tactical voting for CPM+ to stop BJP+.  This is especially true if we just calculate the KEC(M) vote share in seats contested w/o Poonjar where the KEC(M) rebel won easily to be 40.03%.  

4) KEC(D) and KEC(ST) failed to bring over enough of the KEC vote which explained its poor performance.  Even if we filed out the result in Poonjar where the KEC(M) rebel seems to take a good chunk of the KEC(D) vote we get 34.62% for KEC(D) in seats contested which clealy shows that KEC(D) failed to bring over a good chunk of the KEC Christian vote.  Also the KEC Christian vote seems to also splintered over to a KEC(M) rebel and the BJP+ was a factor.  One thing these voting trends clearly indicates is that BJP+ did pick up some Christian votes from INC+.

5) BJP and BDJS alliance worked as both were able to transfer its own vote base to each other.  Based on this vote share BJP+ should have won around 4-6 seats but was held to one seat because of clear tactical voting by INC+ and to some extent CPM+ voters.

6) AIADMK seems to be making small but noticeable inroads in parts of Kerela which some Tamil voters.

[jaichind]

Final chart on TN results by front

Only 232 out of 234 seats actually voted.  2 seats will have elections held later due to accusations of vote buying

Again, I will also have the vote share in the seats contested

TN 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share        In Seats contested
DMK+              232            98              40.27%              40.27%
 DMK                178            89              32.06%              41.59%
 INC                   41              8                6.50%              36.98%              
 IMUL                  5              1                 0.74%              33.43%
 MAMAK               4              0                0.46%               33.34%
 PT                      4              0                 0.52%              28.98%

DMK rebel            1              0                 0.09%              19.98%

AIADMK           232          134              41.31%               41.31%  

AIADMK rebel       1              0                0.05%               13.62%

DMDK+           232              0                6.14%                  6.14%
 DMDK             102             0                2.43%                   5.45%
 MDMK              28              0                0.88%                  7.19%
 CPI                  25              0                0.80%                  7.30%
 VCK                 25              0                0.78%                  7.02%
 CPM                 25              0                0.72%                  6.84%
 TMC                 26              0                0.54%                  5.05%

PMK               230               0                5.39%                  5.44%

PMK rebel          1               0                 0.07 %               19.38%      

BJP+              231              0                2.97%                   2.98%  
 BJP                187              0                2.88%                  3.60%
 IJK                  43              0                0.08%                   0.45%
 Ind.                   1              0                0.00%                   0.36%

NTK               231              0                 1.08%                  1.09%

KMDK              71              0                 0.39%                  1.23%

BSP               158              0                 0.23%                  0.34%

SDPI               30              0                 0.16%                  1.35%

Some thoughts, especially on the vote share in seats contested data

1) DMK tried to claim that TN voters were for DMK because in the seats DMK contested against AIADMK directly DMK won slightly more seats and have a higher voter share than AIADMK.  This is mostly hogwash.  DMK, being the larger party, gave to its allies less winnable seats.  This comes out in the vote share per seats.  In fact the pecking order of the DMK allies are clear.  INC is below DMK but above IMUL PT and MAMAK.

2) In the DMDK case the numbers show a very different story.  In theory DMDK being the senior partner as well as the CM candidate should have gotten better seats.  But its vote share per seat is a good deal lower than PWF parties (MDMK CPI CPM VCK).  TMC is in the same situation which is more understandable as TMC joined the alliance last minute and clearly got the worst seats.  I think this has to do with the fact that PWF parties had been allies for a while and their vote base had a chance to gel.  It seems there is some resentment among the PWF vote base to the DMDK and as a result the PWF vote base did not completely transfer over to the DMDK candidates.

3) DMDK's result is a disaster and called its bluff that it wants to be a king and not just a kingmaker.  Its level of support is barely enough for a kingmaker and only relevant in this election because how close it is.  I saw this coming noted a couple of months ago when I thought that DMDK will go will DMK and made a note about the true size of DMDK support

It seems to me the main reason DMDK went with DMK instead of BJP is because it he went with BJP the election result will call his bluff on the true size of his vote base.  The entire narrative until now is that DMDK has around 10% vote base which would be a king maker in TN politics.  This is based on DMDK contesting in 2006 Assembly and 2009 LS elections alone and winning 8.4% and 10.1% of the vote.  In 2011 DMDK joined AIADMK alliance and the result seems to confirm that AIADMK won by adding the DMDK vote base of around 10% to the AIADMK vote base plus a anti-DMK-INC swing.  But in 2014 LS when DMDK joined up with BJP MDMK and PMK one would expect given the vote base of all 4 parties PLUS the Modi affect should have resulted in around 25% of the vote.  Instead it came in at around 18% with DMDK candidates clearly under-performing with the anti-DMK-INC vote clearly going to AIADMK.  It seems that that the novel factor of DMDK from 2006-2009 was wearing off.  If DMDK went with BJP this time without PMK (they rule themselves out unless the NDA CM candidate is from PMK) nor MDMK the DMDK-BJP front would be non-viable enough that the wearing off the DMDK novel factor would mean DMDK-BJP could very come in at around mid single digits in terms of vote share.  That sort of result will send DMDK vote share value plummeting in the next round of alliance making.   Seeing that AIADMK might be vulnerable to the point that at least the anti-AIADMK will rally around DMK-INC, joining DMK-INC might get the resulting DMK-DMDK-INC front a respectable vote share even if they do not win.  This respectable vote share will hide the true size of the DMDK vote share and protect the narrative of a large DMDK vote bloc.  

Now the true size of  DMDK support is exposed to all.

3) The BJP alliance with IJK clearly did not work.  The BJP failed to transfer its vote to IJK given the disparity in the vote share in seats contested between BJP and IJK.  In fact BJP's failure to transfer its support to IJK cost the DMK+ 4 seats since in those 43 seats where IJK contested the BJP vote base mostly went to AIADMK whereas if the BJP was running a candidate the AIADMK would not benefit from these BJP votes and could have lost some seats to DMK.  This result is quite abnormal.  Historically the reason why the BJP was often sought after as an ally was that it was very effective in transferring its vote to its allies.  It seems that the local BJP/RSS did not have their heart in the IJK alliance and most likely secretly working for AIADMK in seats IJK was contesting if not even seats the BJP was contesting.  Jayalalithaa being a Brahman herself and historically has had good relations with Modi is a factor.

4) In retrospect what should have DMK done to win?  An alliance with PMK which would have revived the DMK+ alliance of 2011 was one way.  I doubt it would have worked.  PMK was determined to show its strength this election and the price DMK had to pay to get PMK onboard would have created a significant DMK rebellion.  Besides while PMK does bring in a 5% vote share its appearance in the DMK+ bloc would have driven away lower caste and Dalit voters to AIADMK.

5) DMK original plan to get DMDK on-board was the right one even though it was not successful in getting DMDK to join DMK+.  Had DMDK go aboard most likely AIADMK would taken on TMC as an ally and perhaps even BJP.  But the polarized nature of the election would mean that PWF would be reduced to around 1% and DMK+ would be around 1% ahead of AIADMK+ instead of 1% behind.  DMDK insisted on a Deputy CM role in case DMK+ wins and DMK, correctly reading the true size of the DMDK vote base, refused.  It is hard to say that DMK+ made a mistake as the result was very very close but in retrospect perhaps they should have made a deal with DMDK.

6) PMK actually did fairly well in this bipolar contest and won its base vote base even though the gravitational pull of AIADMK and DMK+ was quite significant.  PMK base of the Vanniyar caste is too narrow by far to win power on its own but this election shows that PMK's alliance in some circumstances are worth having, even if it does drive away certain lower caste and Dalit votes.

[jaichind]

So in retrospect what sort of swing would be needed in TN for DMK+ to win?

The real result was

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      40.27%     98
AIADMK   41.31%   134  
DMDK+     6.14%       0



If we saw a swing of 0.52% from AIADMK to DMK+ which would put the vote shares of the two blocs to be a tie, DMK+ would gain 13 seats and DMDK+ would gain 1 seat in the form of VCK. AIADMK would still win which implies that the distribution of votes gives the AIADMK an slight advantage in terms of vote share to seats.  It would then be

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      40.79%   111
AIADMK   40.79%   120  
DMDK+     6.14%       1



If we saw a swing of 0.75% from AIADMK to DMK+ then it would be barely enough for DMK+ to win.  This means that DMK+ has to beat AIADMK by 0.46% in terms of vote share for DMK+ to win the seats count.  It would be

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      41.02%   116
AIADMK   40.56%   115  
DMDK+     6.14%       1
 


Now.  Lets go with my idea that BJP did not actively campaign for IJK and as a result the BJP vote went to AIADMK in the seats that IJK ran in.   Lets assume that BJP really made a push for IJK in those seats that IJK ran and those votes did not go to AIADMK.  This means that the IJK vote share in those seats would go up conservatively by 2% and AIADMK would go down by 2%.  That would swing 4 seats to DMK+ and give us

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      40.27%   102
AIADMK   40.92%   130  
DMDK+     6.14%       0
 


Using this baseline, if we saw another 0.33% swing from AIADMK to DMK+ the vote shares would be equal.  In this situation AIADMK would still win which shows the AIADMK advantage in vote share to seat translation even in the case the BJP went all out in all seats.  This scenario gives us  

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      40.59%   112
AIADMK   40.59%   119  
DMDK+     6.14%       1



Now instead we saw a swing of .65% from AIADMK to DMK+ in this alternative baseline the DMK+ would come out ahead in terms of seats.  This means that DMK+ has to beat AIADMK by 0.45% in terms of vote share for DMK+ to win the seats count.  It would be

                Vote        Seats
DMK+      40.92%   116
AIADMK   40.27%   115  
DMDK+     6.14%       1



So one way or another DMK+ has to beat AIADMK by around 0.45%-0.46% vote share to win the seat count.  Although if BJP made an all out effort in all seats DMK would only need to claw 0.65% from AIADMK instead of 0.75% if BJP did not, as in reality, to win the seat count.

[jaichind]

Post election poll in Kerela on the nature of the rise in the BJP vote share



It is interesting that even though the BJP allied with the Ezhavas based BDJS, it only gained 5% from Ezhavas since 2014.  Ezhavas are solidly behind CPM+ and it seems that BJP-BDJS got a limited swing from Ezhavas despite an all effort to get the Ezhavas vote.  The BJP also got a swing from the Upper Caste Nairs which has historically swung between INC+ and BJP where they vote for INC+ in assembly elections but more for BJP in LS elections.  The largest increase for BJP+ seems to be from Dalit votes which it gained from CPM+ even though Dalits are less than 10% of the population so the large swing had limited value.  And as expected BJP+ also got a solid swing of Christians from INC+.

The social combination in Kerala are

INC+: Upper Caste Hindus, Muslims, Christians, then try to get Lower Caste Hindus
CPM+: Lower Caste Hindus, Dalits, then try to get Muslims and then Upper Caste Hindu
BJP+: Upper Caste Hindus, then try to get Lower Caste Hindus/Dalits and Christians

[jaichind]

ABP poll has NDA vote share in LS going from 39% to 46% but a limited seat gain from 339 to 342



This is because UPA also has gained vote share from 26% to 28% as well as well as anti-NDA tactical voting which helps give it a seat share increase 62 to 66



It expects LF to also gain a bit of ground in both Kerala and WB in a LS election



Various non-UPA non-NDA local parities tend to lose out in terms of votes but not as much seats due to tactical voting between them and UPA as well as LF


Usually 2 years into a government tends to be when it is most popular so NDA will only go down from here.

With her solid win in WB there is talk that Mamata Banerjee will from a Federal front which will include AAP, SP, AIADMK, TRS, and JD(U)-RJD in 2019.  There are even signs she might be able to rope in BJD and perhaps BJP ally TDP.  In which case this is very dangerous for INC which could find itself not even being the main alternative to BJP let along coming back to power in 2019.

[jaichind]

Post election poll for TN showed that as expected AIADMK won in Upper Castes while DMK+ was stronger with Christians and Dalits.   Both are weaker in Vanniyars since that is where the PMK is the strongest.   Vanniyars make up almost 25% of the TN voting population.  So even with PMK winning only around  20% of the Vanniyar vote that still translated to a vote share above 5% when combined with the other votes PMK picked up.



Of course the same breakdown with it broken out by gender also shows a clear gender gap in favor of AIADMK and women.  What saved AIADMK was it winning OBC and Dalit women over DMK+.

[jaichind]

Final and official result chart for  Puducherry

Puducherry 2016

                    Contest        Won          Vote share             In Seats contested
INC+                 30            17              40.11%                    40.11%
 INC                  21             15              31.11%                   43.44%
 DMK                  9               2                9.09%                    31.71%

INC rebel            3              0                 1.36%                    14.07%

AINRC              30              8                28.60%                   28.60%

AINRC rebel       7               0                 3.67%                    15.42%

AIADMK           30              4                17.10%                    17.10%

CPI+                29              1                 3.55%                      3.63%
 CPI                   7              0                 1.09%                      4.75%
 VCK                  5              0                 0.50%                      2.86%
 CPM                  4              0                 0.38%                      2.54%
 MDMK               5              0                 0.10%                      0.60%
 DMDK               6              0                 0.11%                      0.55%
 RSP                  1              0                  0.01%                     0.22%
 Ind.                  1              1                 1.37%                    46.20%

BJP                  30              0                 2.45%                      2.45%

BJP rebel           1              0                  0.62%                    18.03%

PMK                30              0                  0.72%                     0.72%

NTK                 28             0                  0.49%                     0.58%

The pecking order between INC and DMK are clear from the vote share within seats that INC as the senior partner got the more winnable seats.  Same for the CPI+ bloc where CPI got the better seats followed by VCK and CPM with MDMK DMDK and RSP getting the worst seats.  The pro-CPI independent that won as part of the CPI+ front was a total shock.  It seems more a result of tactical voting by AIADMK and AINRC for said independent to defeat the INC candidate in a INC stronghold.   

As noted before there are clear signs of tactical voting between AINRC and AIADMK which had the effect of holding down the scale of the INC+ bloc victory.  On the other side of the ledger AINRC rebels of course cost AINRC dearly.

AINRC actually did not do badly considering the circumstances and if it can form an alliance with the AIADMK it could be a contender in 2021 and not end like other INC  Puducherry splinters in the past which all declined and ended up  merging back into INC.

[jaichind]

One thing funny about this picture


 

Which I posted earlier is that in reality neither Karunanidhi nor Jayalalithaa are now really even able to stand up, let alone walk.   Karunanidhi is almost 92 year old so this is understandable.  Karunanidhi just said that if DMK wins he will serve as CM although he will most likely hand off the CM post to Stalin mid-term.  I guess he is doing this to try to keep DMK united until at least after the elections.  Jayalalithaa is 68 but her health is dramatically worse than it was from 4-5 years ago.  It is completely possible that even if she wins she might be too ill to serve out her entire 5 year term.  And unlike DMK, Jayalalithaa has zero succession plans worked out.   Perhaps Panneerselvam which she uses as a proxy CM when she has to leave office due to legal issues.  But Panneerselvam has very low clout among the various AIADMK factions and is Jayalalithaa's backup only because of his blind loyalty to do whatever she says.  Stalin himself is 63 and I guess if he can keep DMK together is good for another couple of election cycles.  

The TN 2016 election might be the last one of an era.  We could find in 2021 that both DMK and AIADMK completely destroyed as the unifying force that held them together,  Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, might be either dead or so ill that they are out of politics leaving their successor unable to manage either party.  In that sense that is what DMDK-PWF, PMK and BJP are really working on in this election.  Their job is to lay the groundwork for a potentially wild and realigning 2021 TN election.

So I guess I was right.  Jayalalithaa, CM of TN and leader of AIADMK, passed away a couple of weeks ago.  Karunanidhi outlasted yet another rival.  He outlasted MGR and now he outlasted  Jayalalithaa. This left Panneerselvam who has no mass base nor any clout with the various AIADMK chieftains as CM.   Jayalalithaa has no direct relative and it seems that the AIADMK elites, seeing a need to coalesce around some sort of personality cult to counter DMK is pushing for Sasikala Natarajan who was Jayalalithaa's chief aide to be the the new leader of AIADMK and eventually CM.   This would be unprecedented since while Sasikala has been active in behind-the-scenes management of AIADMK, she has no mass base and has never even given a political speech.  But she seems to be the only one the rival AIADMK factions could unite around.  A large part of the AIADMK base seems to oppose this.   Panneerselvam seems to be willing to accept her as leader of AIADMK but insisted he stay on as CM.


If Sasikala were to be made leader of AIADMK and eventually CM would be like if Hillary Clinton was elected US President, died in office so Tim Kaine takes over, but the US Democratic party unites around Huma Abedin to become the leader of the Democratic Party and then proceed to move Tim Kaine out of office to put Huma Abedin into office.  The AIADMK succession crisis at hand.  We will see if AIADMK can come out of it in one piece.  If the DMK continues to be a strong force in TN I suspect AIADMK can survive as an unit.   If  Karunanidhi were also to now pass away then I suspect both AIADMK and DMK would split leading to major TN party system realignment.