UK local by-elections, 2016

[vileplume]

Have to be careful about reading overmuch into local byes, but it is notable that for Labour the patterns recently have not exactly been those suggested by media HOT TAKES.

Yes the Lib Dems were gaining seats in local by-elections all the way up to the last general election. Lib Dem supporters, well known for being hyper-optimistic, claimed this was evidence they were going to do much better than expected at the general election. We all know how that turned out...

Local by elections are also usually pathetically low turnout so results in them can never be extrapolated to national politics. Plus the Lib Dems put more effort into local by elections than any other party so often just turning out their core vote is good enough to win with abysmal turnout.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words consolidated and relocated here.

Tandridge, Warlingham West

Con 56.5 (-0.7)
Lib Dem 33.6 (+12.6)
UKIP 9.9 (-4.0)

Gwynedd, Waunfawr

PC 75.8 (+18.6)
Lab 24.2 (+24.2)

Hackney, Hackney Central

Lab 75.2 (+11.1)
Green 9.9 (-13.4)
Lib Dem 6.3 (-0.7)
Con 5.6 (-0.1)
Ind 3.1

Lewisham, Bellingham

Lab 56.8 (+3.1)
Con 18.2 (+5.3)
Lib Dem 10.9 (+5.7)
PBP 7.8 (-6.7)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)

Reading, Southcote

Lab 64.1 (+0.2)
Con 26.1 (+1.3)
Lib Dem 5.3 (-0.9)
Green 4.5 (-0.6)

Northampton, Westone

Lib Dem 49.7 (+36.3)
Con 27.2 (-28.8)
Lab 23.0 (-7.7)

Lancashire, Chorley Rural North

Con 43.8 (+2.7)
Lab 39.9 (+2.1)
UKIP 11.6 (-5.7)
Lib Dem 4.8 (+1.0)

East Devon, Honiton St Michael's

Con 39.8 (+0.1)
E Devon Ind 23.2 (+2.1)
Lab 21.6 (+21.6)
UKIP 15.4 (-3.7)

Newark and Sherwood, Balderston South

Con 82.4 (+26.0)
Lib Dem 17.6 (+17.6)

East Devon, Exmouth Littleham

Con 45.3 (+19.8)
Lib Dem 38.7 (+20.0)
Lab 16.0 (+16.0)

South Staffordshire, Great Wyrley Town

Con 50.9 (+1.2)
Lab 32.8 (+7.3)
UKIP 16.3 (-8.5)

Lib Dem gain Westone from Con

[ObserverIE]

Have to be careful about reading overmuch into local byes, but it is notable that for Labour the patterns recently have not exactly been those suggested by media HOT TAKES.

Yes the Lib Dems were gaining seats in local by-elections all the way up to the last general election. Lib Dem supporters, well known for being hyper-optimistic, claimed this was evidence they were going to do much better than expected at the general election. We all know how that turned out...

Not quite sure about that. They were picking up the occasional seat but it was in the context of their seat numbers having collapsed in the previous few sets of local elections. Far more common were by-elections where they were getting 2-3% of the vote, which proved a fairly accurate predictor of what was coming down the line in May 2015.

If you were to ask me what it looks like at the moment, it would be a slight Lab -> Con swing nationally (though possibly a swing to Labour where they don't need it), Lib Dems probably returning to respectability (good seconds if not wins) in their former strongholds but remaining moribund elsewhere, and UKIP slipping back.

[ObserverIE]

East Hampshire, The Hangers and Forest

Con 45.3 (-23.7)
Lib Dem 43.6 (+43.6)
Justice 7.9 (+7.9)
Lab 3.3 (-9.6)

[ObserverIE]

South Hams, Totnes (changes in italics since November 2015 by-election)

Lib Dem 44.2 (+25.7) (+14.7)
Green 27.1 (-5.5) (-3.0)
Lab* 21.3 (+2.5) (-1.5)
Con 7.4 (-6.0) (-6.8)

*Labour, who were defending the seat, failed to nominate an official candidate to defend it because the official selection meeting was apparently taken up with a confidence motion in Corbyn, J. The branch chairman nominated a notionally independent candidate who was a Labour member but had not been a member for sufficiently long to stand as an official candidate.

Lib Dem gain Totnes from Lab

[ObserverIE]

This week's retrospective Holy Words are here, here, and here.

[Hnv1]

South Hams, Totnes (changes in italics since November 2015 by-election)

Lib Dem 44.2 (+25.7) (+14.7)
Green 27.1 (-5.5) (-3.0)
Lab* 21.3 (+2.5) (-1.5)
Con 7.4 (-6.0) (-6.

*Labour, who were defending the seat, failed to nominate an official candidate to defend it because the official selection meeting was apparently taken up with a confidence motion in Corbyn, J. The branch chairman nominated a notionally independent candidate who was a Labour member but had not been a member for sufficiently long to stand as an official candidate.

Lib Dem gain Totnes from Lab

The Lib Dem candidate is named John Birch, that's unfortunate

[ObserverIE]

South Hams, Totnes (changes in italics since November 2015 by-election)

Lib Dem 44.2 (+25.7) (+14.7)
Green 27.1 (-5.5) (-3.0)
Lab* 21.3 (+2.5) (-1.5)
Con 7.4 (-6.0) (-6.

*Labour, who were defending the seat, failed to nominate an official candidate to defend it because the official selection meeting was apparently taken up with a confidence motion in Corbyn, J. The branch chairman nominated a notionally independent candidate who was a Labour member but had not been a member for sufficiently long to stand as an official candidate.

Lib Dem gain Totnes from Lab

The Lib Dem candidate is named John Birch, that's unfortunate

The allusion would be lost in the U.K. If his name was Donald Trump...

[ObserverIE]

Newport, St Julians

Lib Dem 53.7 (+12.0)
Lab 24.4 (-21.4)
UKIP 8.8 (+8.8)
Con 7.6 (-4.9)
PC 4.0 (+4.0)
Green 1.4 (+1.4)

Haringey, Harringay

Lab 46.2 (+4.2)
Lib Dem 33.6 (+3.4)
Green 14.3 (-2.6)
Con 4.3 (-1.7)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)

Sutton, Carshalton Central

Lib Dem 43.4 (+4.9)
Con 36.9 (+11.3)
Green 7.3 (+0.2)
Lab 6.1 (-3.4)
UKIP 5.2 (-11.8)
CPA 1.0 (-1.3)

Cornwall, Newlyn and Goonhavern

Lib Dem 24.4 (+24.4)
Con 23.1 (-23.1)
Ind Yeo 16.1
MK 15.9 (-28.1)
Lab 7.6 (-2.2)
Ind Tucker 7.4
Ind Thomas 5.3

Wychavon, Droitwich West

Con 41.9 (-4.2)
Lab 24.0 (-11.2)
UKIP 19.7 (+19.7)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+14.5)

Lib Dem hold St Julians
Lib Dem gain Newlyn and Goonhavern from Con

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale and Parksite

Lab 56.4 (+9.7)
UKIP 24.6 (+24.6)
Con 11.3 (-10.6)
Ind 7.6

Ashford, Beaver

UKIP 42.1 (+8.3)
Lab 27.4 (-3.0)
Con 27.1 (+3.4)
Green 3.5 (-3.4)

Nottinghamshire, Bingham

Con 44.0 (+2.2)
Ind 42.7
Lab 13.2 (-7.1)

Rushcliffe, Cranmer

Con 54.3 (-16.5)
Ind 23.5
Lab 22.0 (-7.0)

Eden, Alston Moor

Lib Dem 54.6 (+54.6)
Con 45.4 (-0.3)

Brighton and Hove, East Brighton

Lab 57.5 (+9.4)
Con 19.9 (-3.1)
Green 11.1 (-5.5)
UKIP 5.9 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.5 (-3.9)
Ind 1.2

East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness

Con 38.5 (+3.1)
Lab 33.8 (+9.4)
UKIP 16.4 (-14.0)
Ind 7.3 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 4.1 (+4.1)

Lab gain Silverdale and Parksite from Ind elected as UKIP
UKIP gain Beaver from Lab
Lib Dem gain Alston Moor from Con

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word.

Renfrewshire, Renfrew South and Gallowhill

SNP 47.8 (+4.5)
Lab 36.9 (-11.2)
Con 13.4 (+8.9)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-0.1)

North Ayrshire, Irvine West

SNP 37.5 (+0.7)
Lab 33.1 (-7.1)
Con 20.6 (+8.6)
SLP 4.2 (+2.6)
Green 3.0 (+3.0)
Lib Dem 1.5 (-3.3)

Worcestershire, Ombersley

Con 63.2 (+15.2)
Lib Dem 14.8 (+9.6)
UKIP 14.0 (-19.2)
Ind 7.9

SNP gain Renfrew South and Gallowhill from Lab
Lab gain Irvine West from SNP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Defeated SNP candidate in Irvine was Sturgeon's father.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Wandsworth, Tooting

Lab 58.5 (+13.3)
Con 25.7 (-2.1)
Lib Dem 10.6 (+4.6)
Green 4.6 (-6.8)
SDP 0.6 (+0.6)

Richmondshire, Catterick (changes in italics since February 2016 by-election)

Con 41.8 (+4.6) (-18.5)
Lib Dem 37.2 (+37.2) (+37.2)
Ind 20.5
Green 0.5 (-16.3) (+0.5)

Thanet, Northwood

UKIP 34.4 (-12.6) (488, 394)
Lab 26.6 (-2.4) (356. 325)
Con 20.6 (-3.4) (282, 246)
Ind 10.6 (136)
Lib Dem 4.4 (+4.4) (64, 48)
United Thanet 3.4 (+3.4) (44)

Redcar and Cleveland, Ormesby

Lib Dem 75.4 (+34.9)
UKIP 10.6 (-9.6)
Lab 9.7 (-10.8)
Con 3.2 (-10.2)
NEP 1.2 (+1.2)

Kent, Gravesham East

Con 36.0 (+10.3)
Lab 31.5 (-5.5)
UKIP 26.0 (+2.1)
Green 4.3 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 2.3 (-1.6)

Gravesham, Pelham

Lab 46.2 (-4.5)
Con 30.4 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 9.4 (+9.4)
UKIP 8.5 (+8.5)
Green 3.3 (-12.3)
Eng Dem 2.2 (+2.2)

Surrey, Farnham South

Con 41.2 (-9.0)
Farnham Res 33.4 (+33.4)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)
Ind 6.2 (-10.0)
UKIP 3.9 (-12.3)
Lab 3.4 (-3.6)

Waverley, Farnham Castle

Farnham Res 40.6 (+5.1)
Lib Dem 30.7 (+5.6)
Con 24.1 (-0.4)
UKIP 4.5 (+4.5)

Waverley, Farnham Shortheath and Boundstone

Farnham Res 47.6 (+7.0)
Con 31.1 (-12.6)
Lib Dem 12.0 (+12.0)
Ind 5.7
UKIP 3.5 (+3.5)

Con gain Catterick from Ind
UKIP win 2 in Northwood from Inds elected as UKIP
Con gain Gravesham East from Lab
Farnham Res gain Farnham Castle from Con
Farnham Res gain Farnham Shortheath and Boundstone from Con

[ObserverIE]

Brief Holy Word here.

Fife, The Lochs (changes in italics since May 2014 by-election)

Lab 47.1 (+0.7) (-14.4)
SNP 38.6 (+19.6) (+13.4)
Con 9.6 (+7.4) (+4.7)
Comm 3.1 (-24.4) (+3.1)
Green 1.6 (+1.6) (+1.6)

Lab gain The Lochs from Comm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which marks the end of elected Communist representation in British politics. A small but not unpleasant milestone.

[ObserverIE]

Another Holy Word here.

Cornwall, Four Lanes

Lib Dem 34.7 (+34.7)
Ind 16.6
Con 14.8 (-5.8)
Lab 14.5 (-5.6)
MK 12.8 (-0.9)
UKIP 6.6 (-21.9)

Stockton-on-Tees, Grangefield

Con 50.5 (+15.1)
Lab 43.1 (-5.5)
UKIP 3.6 (-8.7)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-0.8)

Bournemouth, Kinson North

Con 34.7 (+2.4)
Lab 32.2 (+12.8)
UKIP 19.5 (-8.9)
Lib Dem 7.2 (-2.2)
Green 6.4 (-4.1)

East Dorset, Parley

Con 55.5 (-1.0)
UKIP 32.5 (+6.9)
Lib Dem 7.4 (+7.4)
Lab 4.6 (+4.6)

Dorset, Ferndown

Con 57.0 (+12.6)
UKIP 30.4 (-14.4)
Lib Dem 7.2 (+7.2)
Lab 5.3 (-5.6)

Lib Dem gain Four Lanes from UKIP
Con gain Grangefield from Lab
Con hold Ferndown

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word.

Sheffield, Mosborough

Lib Dem 45.6 (+31.9)
Lab 34.1 (-8.6)
UKIP 12.4 (-9.3)
Con 6.1 (-9.0)
Green 1.8 (-1.3)

Barrow-in-Furness, Parkside

Lab 52.1 (-4.8)
Con 42.3 (-0.8)
UKIP 5.6 (+5.6)

Mansfield, Yeoman Hill

Lab 45.7 (-4.5)
Mansfield Ind 24.3 (-25.5)
UKIP 17.3 (+17.3)
Con 6.7 (+6.7)
Ind 5.9

Maidstone, Shepway South

UKIP 45.0 (+6.7)
Con 22.4 (-5.4)
Lab 19.1 (-5.7)
Ind 9.2
Lib Dem 4.3 (-1.6)

Lib Dem gain Mosborough from Lab

[YL]

OK, so what were Labour doing picking a candidate from Stocksbridge in Mosborough?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trying to lose the seat?

[ObserverIE]

Another week's Holy Word here.

East Hertfordshire, Puckeridge

Con 42.9 (-24.6)
UKIP 18.9 (+18.9)
Lib Dem 18.0 (+18.0)
Lab 11.0 (-8.9)
Green 9.1 (-3.5)

Newcastle upon Tyne, Blakelaw

Lab 43.2 (-20.0)
Lib Dem 28.1 (+19.0)
UKIP 19.1 (+3.0)
Con 5.1 (-2.5)
Green 4.5 (+0.5)

North East Derbyshire, Tupton

Lib Dem 38.3 (+38.3)
Lab 34.7 (-33.3)
Con 17.5 (-14.5)
UKIP 8.9 (+8.9)
BPP 0.7 (+0.7)

Carlisle, Castle

Lab 46.5 (-3.4)
Con 26.7 (+3.1)
UKIP 12.5 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 10.3 (+2.1)
Green 4.0 (-0.6)

Shropshire, Bishop's Castle

Lib Dem 60.5 (-1.5)
Con 30.2 (-0.5)
Lab 6.7 (+6.7)
Green 2.6 (-4.7)

Con win Puckeridge held by Ind elected as Con
Lib Dem gain Tupton from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Premature Holy Word here.

Cardiff, Plasnewydd

Lib Dem 48.1 (+14.4)
Lab 34.8 (-2.5)
PC 6.8 (-3.6)
Con 4.4 (-0.5)
Green 3.6 (-10.1)
UKIP 2.4 (+2.4)

Lib Dem gain Plasnewydd from Lab

[ObserverIE]

Second Holy Word of the week here.

Allerdale, Christchurch

Lab 40.7 (+7.3)
Lib Dem 29.4 (+19.4)
Con 25.9 (-19.5)
UKIP 4.0 (+4.0)

Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm

PC 27.8 (+27.8)
Ind Davies 20.9
Lab 17.0 (+17.0)
Ind Paul 14.7
People First 8.9 (-28.4)
Lib Dem 8.6 (+8.6)
Con 2.1 (-17.1)

Gateshead, Chopwell and Rowlands Gill

Lab 59.1 (-3.6)
UKIP 15.6 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 12.3 (+7.9)
Con 8.6 (-2.3)
Green 4.4 (-3.2)

North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge North and Glenboig

Lab 41.7 (-11.3)
SNP 39.0 (+8.2)
Con 11.3 (+5.3)
Green 6.0 (+6.0)
UKIP 1.9 (+1.9)

Teignbridge, Teignmouth Central

Lib Dem 51.1 (+28.6)
Con 29.8 (-11.9)
UKIP 11.6 (+11.6)
Lab 7.5 (-9.1)

Cherwell, Adderbury, Bloxham and Bodicote

Con 57.4 (+6.9)
Lab 16.2 (+0.1)
Green 15.7 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 10.7 (-3.3)

North Warwickshire, Arley and Whitacre

Lab 59.7 (+32.6)
Con 40.3 (+4.4)

South Northamptonshire, Old Stratford

Con 77.2
UKIP 22.8

Suffolk, Hadleigh

Lib Dem 36.2 (+12.2)
Con 25.9 (-5.3)
Lab 22.4 (+6.0)
UKIP 11.5 (-12.1)
Green 3.9 (-0.9)

Lab gain Christchurch from Con
PC gain Cilycwm from Ind
Lab gain Coatbridge North and Glenboig from SNP
Lib Dem gain Teignmouth Central from Con
Lab gain Arley and Whitacre from Con
Lib Dem gain Hadleigh from Con

[Zanas]

A poor week for the Cons. Is it entirely coincidental, or is there something cooking ?

[YL]

A poor week for the Cons. Is it entirely coincidental, or is there something cooking ?

I wouldn't read much into it.  But the Lib Dems do seem to be having a number of good results; I wonder how their Witney campaign is going.

[Gary J]

A poor week for the Cons. Is it entirely coincidental, or is there something cooking ?

I wouldn't read much into it.  But the Lib Dems do seem to be having a number of good results; I wonder how their Witney campaign is going.

I think a lot of the good local by-election results are the Lib Dems recovering from the electoral damage the coalition caused, at least in some of their stronger areas. There does not seem to be a general recovery yet, but persistent local campaigning is now more likely to produce a good result than it has in the last few years.

The Lib Dems do seem to want to mount a strenuous campaign in Witney. It will be interesting to see if a parliamentary by-election electorate reacts in the same way that some local by-election voters have been doing.