UK local by-elections, 2016

[MaxQue]

Didn't it used to be twelve? Or am I confusing it with juries.

Juries were and are still twelve, as far as I know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh I know that, its just that I'd always remembered ballot access also being twelve?

[ObserverIE]

This week's trilogy of Holy Words are here, here, and here.

Caerphilly, Ynysddu

Lab 58.9 (-4.7)
UKIP 21.1 (+21.1)
PC 15.7 (-14.4)
Lib Dem 4.2 (+4.2)

East Riding of Yorkshire, Pocklington Provincial

Ind 38.0
Con 36.1 (-7.2)
Lab 18.0 (-2.1)
UKIP 7.9 (-12.0)

Perth and Kinross, Almond and Earn

Con 48.1 (+18.0)
SNP 38.7 (-2.5)
Lab 6.4 (-3.6)
Lib Dem 4.6 (-2.0)
UKIP 2.2 (+2.2)

Con	1651	1681	1720
SNP	1327	1334	1370
Lab	219	228	280
Lib Dem	157	163
UKIP	77

Ind gain Pocklington Provincial from Con
Con gain Almond and Earn from SNP

The Healy-Raeization of rural Yorkshire takes another step forward.

[joevsimp]

The Healy-Raeization of rural Yorkshire takes another step forward.

I for one welcome our new behatted overlords

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

Taunton Deane, Taunton Halcon

Lib Dem 43.0 (+3.4)
Con 24.6 (-11.0)
Lab 14.7 (+14.7)
UKIP 13.1 (+13.1)
Green 4.6 (-20.2)

Cornwall, Wadebridge West

Lib Dem 43.5 (+19.2)
Con 25.6 (-39.9)
Lab 16.0 (+5.8)
Ind 8.0
Green 6.8 (+6.8)

Cornwall, Menheniot

Con 40.5 (+2.5)
Lib Dem 35.9 (+11.5)
UKIP 13.5 (-17.7)
Lab 5.1 (+5.1)
Green 5.0 (-1.4)

Lib Dem gain Wadebridge West from Con

[Rob Bloom]

Scrolling through the results of the past few months: Are we experiencing the miraculous resurrection of LibDems? What's going on?

[ObserverIE]

Scrolling through the results of the past few months: Are we experiencing the miraculous resurrection of LibDems? What's going on?

I think we're seeing a limited resurrection in areas where they have a credible presence at local level. But they fell a long, long way from 2010 to 2015. It's a question of going from single digits to the cusp of double digits nationally.

[ObserverIE]

Merton, St Helier

Lab 71.0 (+12.4)
Con 13.9 (-0.3)
UKIP 9.4 (-11.4)
Lib Dem 2.9 (-3.5)
Green 2.7 (+2.7)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

East Staffordshire, Stapenhill

Lab 44.3 (+13.8)
UKIP 28.8 (-4.7)
Con 17.2 (-5.4)
Ind 6.2
Green 2.0 (-11.3)
Lib Dem 1.5 (+1.5)

North Yorkshire, Northallerton

Con 48.3 (-4.1)
UKIP 20.5 (-10.6)
Lab 17.2 (+0.7)
Yorks 1st 9.7 (+9.7)
Green 4.6 (+4.6)

Hambleton, Northallerton South

Con 48.0 (+5.3)
Lab 20.6 (-6.8)
UKIP 19.7 (-10.2)
Yorks 1st 11.8 (+11.8)

Lab gain Stapenhill from UKIP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very good result for Labour in Burton.

[vileplume]

Very good result for Labour in Burton.

A bit of an overstatement seen as Labour never should have lost a councillor in that ward in the first place...

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here, here (again!), and here.

Rushmoor, Aldershot Park

Lab 45.9 (+11.1)
UKIP 27.4 (-0.1)
Con 23.1 (-14.6)
Green 3.6 (+3.6)

Dorset, Sherborne Rural

Lib Dem 49.6 (+15.1)
Con 46.7 (+9.5)
Lab 3.7 (+1.2)

Denbighshire, Denbigh Lower

Ind 36.3
PC 29.4 (+7.6)
Con 14.8 (+8.2)
Lab 10.1 (+10.1)
Lib Dem 9.4 (+1.6)

Denbighshire, Dyserth

Ind Williams 25.6
Ind Parry 23.0
Con 20.3 (-30.4)
Lib Dem 15.5 (+4.0)
Lab 12.6 (-25.2)
PC 3.0 (+3.0)

Argyll and Bute, Oban North and Lorn (I am not showing vote changes from the three previous by-elections in this electoral area since the last full council election)

SNP 39.8 (+8.0)
Ind 26.8
Con 22.3 (+13.2)
Lib Dem 11.1 (+5.9)

SNP	1055	1097	1138
Ind	711	821	1160
Con	591	668
Lib Dem	294

Lewes, Lewes Bridge

Lib Dem 44.6 (+18.5)
Green 28.3 (+9.9)
Lab 17.4 (+0.9)
Con 9.6 (-3.1)

Mid Suffolk, Barking and Somersham

Green 34.5 (+34.5)
Con 34.2 (-7.5)
Lib Dem 25.1 (+13.3)
Lab 6.2 (+6.2)

Lab hold Aldershot Park
Lib Dem gain Sherborne Rural from Con
Ind hold Denbigh Lower
Ind gain Dyserth from Con
Ind win Oban North and Lorn (seat held by SNP elected as Ind)
Green gain Barking and Somersham from Con

[YL]

The winning Independent in Oban North & Lorn is a Labour member, and stood as a Labour candidate in some of the previous by-elections.  There's an article explaining his shift to Independent at http://forargyll.com/?p=103922

[Phony Moderate]

Certain parts of Suffolk have a bizarre love for the Greens it seems.

[ObserverIE]

Lambeth, Gipsy Hill

Lab 43.4 (-24.6)
Green 42.1 (+32.5)
Con 7.5 (-5.8)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-1.7)
UKIP 2.6 (-1.8)
Ind 0.9
TUSC 0.7 (+0.7)

North East Lincolnshire, South

Lab 47.4 (-6.3)
UKIP 28.9 (+0.5)
Con 19.5 (+4.7)
Green 2.5 (+2.5)
TUSC 1.6 (-1.6)

Essex, Basildon Laindon Park and Fryerns

UKIP 42.6 (+8.0)
Lab 33.5 (-4.7)
Con 18.4 (+2.8)
Green 5.5 (+3.2)

Southwark, Surrey Docks

Lib Dem 51.9 (+23.0)
Lab 21.1 (-1.1)
Con 12.9 (-6.3)
Green 7.4 (-6.4)
UKIP 6.4 (-9.4)
Ind 0.3

UKIP gain Basildon Laindon Park and Fryerns from Lab

Belated Holy Word here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Laughably poor local results in Lambeth used to happen because the Labour group was controlled by a particularly incompetent group of rigid Party Left types. These days the incompetents are Progress members.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, Valley Hill

Con 41.0 (+6.9)
Lab 24.2 (+24.2)
Lib Dem 15.7 (+15.7)
UKIP 14.8 (+14.8)
Green 4.2 (+4.2)

[ObserverIE]

From last week, overshadowed by everything else, with attendant Holy Word here:

Windsor and Maidenhead, Sunninghill and South Ascot

Con 57.2 (+16.8)
Lab 23.8 (+12.7)
Lib Dem 10.5 (-1.8)
UKIP 8.5 (-2.3)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words here and here.

Luton, High Town

Lab 39.7 (-11.7)
Green 21.5 (+4.8)
Lib Dem 14.2 (+14.2)
Con 11.1 (-20.8)
Ind 8.0
UKIP 5.4 (+5.4)

Bexley, St. Michael's

Con 37.4 (+3.5)
Lab 33.5 (+12.6)
UKIP 18.2 (-16.0)
Lib Dem 4.7 (+4.7)
BNP 4.2 (-6.7)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)

Mole Valley, Leatherhead North

Lib Dem 56.6 (+22.2)
Con 22.3 (-6.4)
UKIP 10.3 (-7.3)
Lab 8.9 (-7.2)
Green 1.8 (-2.4)

Vale of Glamorgan, Rhoose

Ind Riley 29.2
Con 25.4 (-7.1)
Lab 19.6 (-10.6)
Ind Banner 19.5
PC 5.1 (+5.1)
Lib Dem 1.2 (+1.2)
Pirate 0.2 (+0.2)

Thanet, Newington (changes in italics since Jan 2016 by-election)

UKIP 40.2 (-3.9) (+10.2)
Lab 38.3 (+1.6) (+0.6)
Con 17.0 (-2.2) (-3.4)
Lib Dem 4.5 (+4.5) (+2.9)

Con hold St. Michael's
Lib Dem gain Leatherhead North from Con
Ind win Rhoose previously held by Ind
UKIP hold Newington

[ObserverIE]

Conwy, Mostyn

Lab 29.9 (-9.7)
Con 25.0 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 17.3 (+5.4)
Ind Thomas 14.7
UKIP 9.7 (+9.7)
Ind Enston 3.4

Eden, Appleby (Appleby)

Ind 73.6
Con 26.4

Suffolk, Carlford

Con 60.4 (+1.4)
Lab 18.2 (+4.1)
Lib Dem 12.1 (+4.3)
Green 9.3 (+9.3)

Ind win Appleby (Appleby) held by Ind

[ObserverIE]

Holy Words return here, here, ac yma.

Gwynedd, Marchog

Ind 65.3 (+9.3)
Lab 34.7 (-9.3)

Islington, Barnsbury

Lab 51.6 (-5.7)
Lib Dem 17.7 (+8.1)
Con 15.9 (-2.4)
Green 13.1 (+1.2)
Ind 1.7

Selby, Byram and Brotherton

Con 44.3 (+11.7)
Lab 39.6 (-4.4)
Yorks First 16.1 (+16.1)

Gwynedd, Y Felinheli

PC 92.6
Con 7.4

Newham, Forest Gate North

Lab 52.5 (-4.5)
Green 31.1 (+16.5)
Con 13.8 (+0.6)
Lib Dem 2.6 (-2.8)

North Norfolk, Astley

Lib Dem 40.8 (+40.8)
Con 25.3 (-30.7)
UKIP 17.0 (+17.0)
Green 10.4 (-15.8)
Lab 6.5 (-11.3)

Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas

Lib Dem 57.8 (+32.9)
Con 25.0 (-2.0)
Lab 10.3 (-7.5)
Ind 6.9

Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove

Lib Dem 45.9 (+45.9)
Con 21.4 (+7.0)
UKIP 13.4 (+13.4)
Lab 8.4 (+8.4)
Ind 8.1
Green 2.9 (+2.9)

Bradford, Wibsey

Lab 50.7 (+3.8)
UKIP 27.5 (+6.5)
Con 18.9 (+3.4)
Lib Dem 2.9 (-1.5)

Cornwall, St Teath and St Broward

Lib Dem 44.8 (+13.0)
Ind Kitto 17.5
Con 14.6 (-2.1)
Ind Theobald 13.1
Ind Jones 5.3
Lab 4.8 (+4.8)

Con gain Byram and Brotherton from Lab
PC hold Y Felinheli
Lib Dem gain Astley from Con
Lib Dem gain Newquay Treviglas from UKIP
Lib Dem gain Trowbridge Grove from Ind
Lib Dem gain St Teath and St Broward from Ind

#farronmania

[joevsimp]

#farronmania

The Graun picked up on these gains in their politics live blog earlier.

In all seriousness though, could we be seeing  liberally-minded eurosceptics (re)turninremained lib dems now that the issue has been settled?  Despite Farron's intention of dining on an unashamedly pro-EU ticket at the next election,  this feels more likely to be,  given the nature of these areas than the lib dems consolidating the middle class remainers.  Worth remembering as well that the Liberals and SDP in their continuing (undead) forms are anti-EU

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have to be careful about reading overmuch into local byes, but it is notable that for Labour the patterns recently have not exactly been those suggested by media HOT TAKES.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, I used to live in Felin. Plenty of Tories in the village at this time of year but they're all boat owners and aren't registered to vote there! Also the Tory does not live there. Result: Soviet majority.

The 'Independent' in the Bangor ward is part of a Left populist Local People For Local People group founded by a former Labour member. Their logo incorporates a red star. Very active in the community, run a charity shop etc.

[joevsimp]

Anyway, I used to live in Felin. Plenty of Tories in the village at this time of year but they're all boat owners and aren't registered to vote there! Also the Tory does not live there. Result: Soviet majority.

The 'Independent' in the Bangor ward is part of a Left populist Local People For Local People group founded by a former Labour member. Their logo incorporates a red star. Very active in the community, run a charity shop etc.

That's a coincidence.  My ward is up next week.  Should be a fairly boring Labour hold with no Ukip candidate for some reason.

And yes, extrapolating  from council by elections  is a mugs game at the best of times so plenty of sale required. Guess we'll see sooner or later